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The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
March 21, 2021
The seven day average of the number of new Covid-19 infections.
The infection rate in Utah decreased slightly this week from 504 to 464 new cases per day.
Where we go from here largely depends on (1) continued good behavior, (2) increased vaccinations, and (3) little influence from the SARS-CoV-2 mutations
The seven day average of the number of Covid-19 deaths
Deaths are again showing a slow downtrend.
Data on the progress of vaccination in Utah
The total nummber fully vaccinated rose to 418,943 or 13.1% of the population. Utah has a 9-day supply of vaccine on hand at the current vaccination rate.
Most Recent Week
March 21, 2021

The virus in Asia is still a big problem in India and the Phillippenes. Both experienced a sizeable rise in cases. Elsewhere Thailand and Japan new cases bumped up a bit. In Europe France continues to be in a major outbreak. They recorded an increase of 182,485 cases last week over the prior week. The U.K. was the only country I follow where cases decreased. Elsewhere the virus is active in Brazil with 29,002 new cases.

The number of cases in the United States ROSE by 64,622 from the prior week. Only 10 states including Utah saw a decrease from the prior week. This suggests that there is still strength in this pandemic. States hard hit include Michigan, New York, Massachusetts, and Connecticut.tThe increasing number of vaccinations is starting to retard the spead of the virus and yet the virus is winning.

New cases in Utah dropped some with the 7-day moving average dropping from 465 from 419 a week earlier. Utah was one of 10 states with a decrease this week. I expect a move up after SPRING BREAK is over on April 11. The same thin can be expected is many states.

Meanwhile, on the vaccination front, the 7-day moving average of injections was slightlu higher reaching 21,720 per day. What this is telling me is that Utahn's are not flocking to get the vaccine in large numbers. While it would be terrific if we could reach a 70% vaccination level. Now that "open seasion ius here I expect the next four weeks to be VERY BUSY, followed by a significant drop in May. Utah will not each a level of 50% vaccinated UNLESS we do more work convincing people that the vaccine is worthwhile.

  • The countries with the most Novel Corona Virus infections (raw numbers not population adjusted)
    1. United States 30.3 million up to 444,115 cases from 379,500 cases the prior week.
    2. Brazil 12.5.9 million up 539,000 which is up slightly from 500,772 the prior week.
    3. India 11.6 million up 132,412 and fown from 240,000 the prior week.
    4. Russia 4.5 million up 62,296 little changed from the prior week.
    5. United Kingdom 4.4 million up 36,000 little changed from the prior week.
    6. France 4.6 million up 328,399 and way up from 145,000 from the prior week
    7. Italy 3.5 million up 155,691 little changed from the prior week
    8. Spain 3.2 million up 155,000 little change from the prior week.
    9. Turkey 3.2 million up 195,000 which is up alot from 133,7000 the prior week.
    10. Germany 2.8 million up 114.000 which is up from 91,0000 the prior week.
  • The U.S. infection rate is 9.19%. If there is a country with a higher rate, that country is not one that I follow.
  • Meanwhile, the U.S. death rate stands at 1.82%. It is the lowest of all countries outside Asia (and New Zealand) that I follow.
The best and worst states in the U.S.:
Infection Rates:
  • States with infection rates over 11%: North Dakota (13.5%), South Dakota (13.3%), Rhode Island (12.8%), Utah (12.0%), Tennessee(11.7%), Arizona (11.5%), Oklahoma (11.0%), Iowa (11.0%)
  • North Dakota posted a reduction in the number of infections of 477.
  • States with infection rates above 10%: Wisconsin(10.9%), ], Arkansas (10.9%), Nebraska(10.8%), Kansas (10.4%), South Carolina (10.6%), new New Jersey (10.1%)
  • States with infection rates under 5%: Washington 4.7%, Oregon (3.9%), Maine (3.7%) Vermont(3.0%), Hawaii (2.1%)
Death Rates:
  • States with death rates over 2%: New Jersey (2.7%), New York (2.7%), Massachusetts(2.7%), Connecticut (2.6%), Pennsylvania (2.5%), Michigan (2.4%), Mississppi (2.3%), Louisiana (2.3%), Maryland (2.0%), Alabama (2.0%)
  • States with death rates under 1%: Alaska (0.50%), Utah (0.55%),
The Data for This Week:
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected This Week Infected Prior Week Change Last vs. Prior Weeks Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
ASIA                      
China 1,433,783,686 101,664 101,526 138 153 -15 0.01% 4,841 4,839 2 4.76%
India 1,366,417,754 11,971,624 11,599,130 372,494 240,082 132,412 0.88% 161,552 159,755 1,797 1.35%
Japan 126,860,301 468,291 456,247 12,044 8,963 3,081 0.37% 9,050 8,821 229 1.93%
Philippenes 108,116,615 721,892 663,794 58,098 42,296 15,802 0.67% 13,170 12,968 202 1.82%
Viet Nam 96,462,106 2,591 2,572 19 18 1 0.00% 35 35 0 1.35%
Thailand 69,625,582 28,734 27,594 1,140 667 473 0.04% 94 90 4 0.33%
S. Korea 51,225,308 101,757 98,665 3,092 3,030 62 0.20% 1,722 1,696 26 1.69%
Taiwan 23,773,876 1,022 1,006 16 21 -5 0.00% 10 10 0 0.98%
Hong Kong 7,436,154 11,446 11,379 67 98 -31 0.15% 205 203 2 1.79%
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected This Week Infected Prior Week Change Last vs. Prior Weeks Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
EUROPE                      
Russia 145,961,031 4,469,327 4,407,031 62296 65650 -3,354 3.06% 96,123 93,457 2,666 2.15%
Germany 83,517,045 2,784,528 2,669,949 114,579 91,076 23,503 3.33% 75,927 74,715 1,212 2.73%
U.K. 67,530,172 4,347,010 4,310,171 36,839 38,461 -1,622 6.44% 126,832 126,393 439 2.92%
France 65,129,728 4,606,185 4,277,786 328,399 145,914 182,485 7.07% 94,754 92,119 2,635 2.06%
Italy 60,550,075 3,532,067 3,376,376 155,691 153,234 2,457 5.83% 107,933 104,942 2,991 3.06%
Spain 46,692,858 3,255,324 3,212,332 42,992 28,628 14,364 6.97% 75,010 72,910 2,100 2.30%
Greece 10,473,455 254,031 237,125 16,906 15,978 928 2.43% 7,880 7,462 418 3.10%
Sweden 10,036,379 780,018 744,272 35,746 31,745 4,001 7.77% 13,402 13,262 140 1.72%
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected This Week Infected Prior Week Change Last vs. Prior Weeks Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
AMERICAS                      
U.S.A 329,064,917 30,254,332 29,810,217 444,115 379,493 64,622 9.19% 549,288 542,246 7,042 1.82%
Argentina 44,780,677 2,301,389 2,241,739 59,650 49,114 10,536 5.14% 55,368 54,517 851 2.41%
Canada 37,411,047 968,087 938,165 29,922 23,958 5,964 2.59% 22,849 22,654 195 2.36%
Brazil 212,559,417 12,490,362 11,950,459 539,903 510,901 29,002 5.88% 310,550 292,752 17,798 2.49%
                       
OTHER                      
Iran 82,913,906 1,855,674 1,801,065 54,609 54,112 497 2.24% 63,397 61,797 1,600 3.42%
Turkey 83,809,754 3,208,173 3,013,122 195,051 133,732 61,319 3.83% 31,076 30,061 1,015 0.97%
Australia 25,203,198 29,260 29,196 64 79 -15 0.12% 909 909 0 3.11%
New Zeland 4,886,000 2,482 2,453 29 30 -1 0.05% 26 26 0 1.05%
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected This Week Infected Prior Week Change Last vs. Prior Weeks Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
California 39,512,223 3,659,693 3,640,037 19,656 18,155 1,501 9.26% 58,942 57,470 1,472 1.61%
Texas 28,995,881 2,779,556 2,753,012 26,544 27,394 -850 9.59% 48,093 47,346 747 1.73%
Florida 21,477,737 2,044,005 2,008,349 35,656 31,690 3,966 9.52% 33,178 32,742 436 1.62%
New York 19,453,561 1,850,732 1,782,769 67,963 41,406 26,557 9.51% 50,017 49,426 591 2.70%
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 1,015,173 988,656 26,517 20,397 6,120 7.93% 24,970 24,796 174 2.46%
Illinois 12,671,821 1,237,732 1,221,775 15,957 12,531 3,426 9.77% 23,521 23,357 164 1.90%
Ohio 11,689,100 1,011,622 999,750 11,872 10,559 1,313 8.65% 18,525 18,339 186 1.83%
Georgia 10,617,423 1,055,332 1,044,134 11,198 10,348 850 9.94% 18,962 18,530 432 1.80%
North Carolina 10,488,084 905,528 895,263 10,265 12,548 -2,283 8.63% 12,028 11,820 208 1.33%
Michigan 9,986,857 723,700 691,070 32,630 20,982 11,648 7.25% 17,047 16,906 141 2.36%
New Jersey 8,882,190 896,652 865,886 30,766 28,025 2,741 10.09% 24,389 24,174 215 2.72%
Virginia 8,535,519 615,366 604,604 10,762 9,869 893 7.21% 10,198 10,117 81 1.66%
Washington 7,614,893 361,115 354,782 6,333 5,357 976 4.74% 5,218 5,174 44 1.44%
Arizona 7,278,717 839,868 835,765 4,103 3,671 432 11.54% 16,918 16,733 185 2.01%
Massachusetts 6,949,503 627,556 612,857 14,699 10,549 4,150 9.03% 17,086 16,832 254 2.72%
Tennessee 6,833,174 806,792 798,621 8,171 8,969 -798 11.81% 11,816 11,709 107 1.46%
Indiana 6,733,174 684,020 677,905 6,115 5,361 754 10.16% 13,023 12,646 377 1.90%
Missouri 6,137,428 580,035 575,214 4,821 4,257 564 9.45% 8,796 8,717 79 1.52%
Maryland 6,045,680 408,844 400,023 8,821 6,582 2,239 6.76% 8,251 8,170 81 2.02%
Wisconsin 5,822,434 634,133 629,407 4,726 4,122 604 10.89% 7,274 7,240 34 1.15%
Colorado 5,758,736 457,597 449,878 7,719 7,125 594 7.95% 6,089 6,068 21 1.33%
Minnesota 5,639,632 515,058 505,224 9,834 7,832 2,002 9.13% 6,908 6,850 58 1.34%
South Carolina 5,148,714 549,199 533,421 15,778 0 15,778 10.67% 9,122 8,875 247 1.66%
Alabama 4,903,185 514,391 511,460 2,931 7,787 -4,856 10.43% 10,526 10,436 90 2.05%
Louisiana 4,648,794 443,069 439,737 3,332 2,344 988 9.53% 10,087 9,988 99 2.28%
Kentucky 4,467,794 425,085 420,512 4,573 4,247 326 9.51% 6,026 5,720 306 1.42%
Oregon 4,217,737 163,702 161,531 2,171 2,129 42 3.88% 2,375 2,363 12 1.45%
Oklahoma 3,956,971 436,971 434,491 2,480 2,008 472 11.04% 4,850 4,788 62 1.11%
Connecticut 3,565,287 305,210 296,691 8,519 6,114 2,405 8.56% 7,865 7,832 33 2.58%
Utah 3,205,958 384,562 381,629 2,933 3,250 -317 12.00% 2,114 2,062 52 0.55%
Iowa 3,155,070 349,627 345,710 3,917 2,934 983 11.08% 5,725 5,675 50 1.64%
Nevada 3,080,156 303,861 301,178 2,683 1,891 792 9.87% 5,236 5,172 64 1.72%
Arkansas 3,017,825 329,929 328,547 1,382 1,604 -222 10.93% 5,595 5,533 62 1.70%
Mississippi 2,976,149 304,616 302,837 1,779 2,057 -278 10.24% 7,001 6,956 45 2.30%
Kansas 2,913,314 302,988 301,519 1,469 1,524 -55 10.40% 4,848 4,798 50 1.60%
New Mexico 2,096,829 190,887 189,560 1,327 1,393 -66 9.10% 3,925 3,889 36 2.06%
Nebraska 1,934,408 208,424 206,388 2,036 1,750 286 10.77% 2,175 2,135 40 1.04%
West Virginia 1,792,147 140,613 137,826 2,787 2,358 429 7.85% 2,634 2,606 28 1.87%
Idaho 1,787,147 179,428 177,420 2,008 2,164 -156 10.04% 1,954 1,941 13 1.09%
Hawaii 1,415,872 29,712 29,049 663 545 118 2.10% 461 452 9 1.55%
New Hampshire 1,359,711 82,745 80,316 2,429 1,701 728 6.09% 1,235 1,217 18 1.49%
Maine 1,344,212 49,850 48,464 1,386 1,432 -46 3.71% 736 729 7 1.48%
Montana 1,068,778 104,128 103,060 1,068 1,300 -232 9.74% 1,436 1,414 22 1.38%
Rhode Island 1,059,361 135,775 133,039 2,736 2,537 199 12.82% 2,608 2,595 13 1.92%
Delaware 973,764 94,062 92,287 1,775 1,906 -131 9.66% 1,544 1,529 15 1.64%
South Dakota 884,659 117,244 115,789 1,455 1,166 289 13.25% 1,933 1,923 10 1.65%
North Dakota 762,062 102,583 103,060 -477 2,084 -2,561 13.46% 1,498 1,492 6 1.46%
Alaska 731,545 62,161 61,086 1,075 879 196 8.50% 313 310 3 0.50%
Vermont 623,989 18,820 17,740 1,080 850 230 3.02% 225 219 6 1.20%
Wyoming 578,759 56,046 55,581 465 418 47 9.68% 695 693 2 1.24%
    30,095,797   450,888       545,991   7,487  
                       
Prior Data - Select from the list below
Highlights of the Pandemic
  • Most outrageous statement by any U.S. Politician: Governor Newsom of California said 56% of his state would be infected. That would be about 22 million people. Three weeks after his statement, the state has 0.01% of its citizens infected I can promise you that will not happen. So far California is a shining example to the nation with a 0.04% infection rate (April 7).
  • On April 7 Dr. anthony Fauci, the leading epidimeologist for the U.S. government has complemented Utah effort at social distancing,even though our infection rate is at 0.06%, somewhat above California's rate.
  • I was wrong that the virus does not like hot weater based on many tropical counties having small case counts. As it turns out they were just doing a great job limiting infections
  • Much of the U.S. opened too early at the end of May, thinking the worst was over, at that point too many people assumed it was all over and everything could return to normal. They turned out to be "dead" wrong.
    • Early on modelers at the University of Washington predicted 10,000 deaths for the State of Utah. Three weeks later they reduced that prediction to 2,000. As of August 16, 2020, Utah's actual death count was just 363.
    • As of August 23, 2020, I believe we will have an approved vaccine between November 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021. Pfizer with partner Biontech and Moderna are presently leading the race.  
    Pandemic - The SARS-Cov 2 Virus