SARS-COV2-Pandemic

theHaslams.com
The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective

March 28, 2021

The seven day average of the number of new Covid-19 infections.

The infection rate in Utah decreased a good amount this week from 464 to 419 new cases per day, using the 7-day moving average..
Where we go from here largely depends on (1) continued good behavior (SPRING BREAK), (2) increased vaccinations, and (3) little influence from the SARS-CoV-2 mutations

The seven day average of the number of Covid-19 deaths

Deaths are a mystery to me, every few days a big number over 20 is posted. I don't understand what is going on..

Data on the progress of vaccination in Utah

The total nummber fully vaccinated rose from 13.1% to 14.9% of the population. That's the best increase yet. But at this rate it will take several weeks 30% fully vaccinated.

Most Recent Week

March 28, 2021

The virus in Asia is still a big problem in India and the Phillippines. Both experienced a sizeable rise in cases. Elsewhere Thailand and Japan's new cases bumped up a bit. In Europe, France continues to be in a major outbreak. They recorded an increase of 182,485 cases last week over the prior week. The U.K. was the only country I follow where cases decreased. Elsewhere the virus is active in Brazil with 29,002 new cases.

The number of cases in the United States ROSE by 64,622 from the prior week. Only 10 states including Utah saw a decrease from the prior week. This suggests that there is still strength in this pandemic. States hard-hit includes Michigan, New York, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. The increasing number of vaccinations is starting to retard the spread of the virus and yet the virus is winning.

New cases in Utah dropped some with the 7-day moving average dropping from 465 from 419 a week earlier. Utah was one of 10 states with a decrease this week. I expect a move up after SPRING BREAK is over on April 11. The same thing can be expected is many states.

Meanwhile, on the vaccination front, in Utah the 7-day moving average of injections was slightly higher reaching 21,720 per day. What this is telling me is that Utahn's are not flocking to get the vaccine in large numbers. Now that "open seasion ius here I expect the next four weeks to be VERY BUSY, followed by a significant drop in May. Utah will not each a level of 50% vaccinated UNLESS we do more work convincing people that the vaccine in worthwhile.

The countries with the most Novel Corona Virus infections (raw numbers not population adjusted)

United States 30.3 million up to 444,115 cases from 379,500 cases the prior week.
Brazil 12.5.9 million up 539,000 which is up slightly from 500,772 the prior week.
India 11.6 million up 132,412 but down from 240,000 the prior week.
Russia 4.5 million up 62,296 little changed from the prior week.
United Kingdom 4.4 million up 36,000 little changed from the prior week.
France 4.6 million up 328,399 and way up from 145,000 from the prior week
Italy 3.5 million up 155,691 little changed from the prior week
Spain 3.2 million up 155,000 little change from the prior week.
Turkey 3.2 million up 195,000 which is up a lot from 133,7000 the prior week.
Germany 2.8 million up 114.000 which is up from 91,0000 the prior week.

The U.S. infection rate is 9.19%. If there is a country with a higher rate, that country is not one that I follow.
Meanwhile, the U.S. death rate stands at 1.82%. It is the lowest of all countries outside Asia (and New Zealand) that I follow.

The best and worst states in the U.S.:

Infection Rates:

States with infection rates over 11%: North Dakota (13.5%), South Dakota (13.3%), Rhode Island (12.8%), Utah (12.0%), Tennessee(11.7%), Arizona (11.5%), Oklahoma (11.0%), Iowa (11.0%)
North Dakota posted a reduction in the number of infections of 477.
States with infection rates above 10%: Wisconsin(10.9%), ], Arkansas (10.9%), Nebraska(10.8%), Kansas (10.4%), South Carolina (10.6%), new New Jersey (10.1%)
States with infection rates under 5%: Washington 4.7%, Oregon (3.9%), Maine (3.7%) Vermont(3.0%), Hawaii (2.1%)

Death Rates:

States with death rates over 2%: New Jersey (2.7%), New York (2.7%), Massachusetts(2.7%), Connecticut (2.6%), Pennsylvania (2.5%), Michigan (2.4%), Mississppi (2.3%), Louisiana (2.3%), Maryland (2.0%), Alabama (2.0%)
States with death rates under 1%: Alaska (0.50%), Utah (0.55%),

The Data for This Week:

Country	Population	Infected Total	Infected Prior Week	Infected This Week	Infected Prior Week	Change Last vs. Prior Weeks	Infection Rate	Dead Total	Dead Prior Week	Died Week	Death Rate
ASIA
China	1,433,783,686	101,664	101,526	138	153	-15	0.01%	4,841	4,839	2	4.76%
India	1,366,417,754	11,971,624	11,599,130	372,494	240,082	132,412	0.88%	161,552	159,755	1,797	1.35%
Japan	126,860,301	468,291	456,247	12,044	8,963	3,081	0.37%	9,050	8,821	229	1.93%
Philippenes	108,116,615	721,892	663,794	58,098	42,296	15,802	0.67%	13,170	12,968	202	1.82%
Viet Nam	96,462,106	2,591	2,572	19	18	1	0.00%	35	35	0	1.35%
Thailand	69,625,582	28,734	27,594	1,140	667	473	0.04%	94	90	4	0.33%
S. Korea	51,225,308	101,757	98,665	3,092	3,030	62	0.20%	1,722	1,696	26	1.69%
Taiwan	23,773,876	1,022	1,006	16	21	-5	0.00%	10	10	0	0.98%
Hong Kong	7,436,154	11,446	11,379	67	98	-31	0.15%	205	203	2	1.79%
Country	Population	Infected Total	Infected Prior Week	Infected This Week	Infected Prior Week	Change Last vs. Prior Weeks	Infection Rate	Dead Total	Dead Prior Week	Died Week	Death Rate
EUROPE
Russia	145,961,031	4,469,327	4,407,031	62296	65650	-3,354	3.06%	96,123	93,457	2,666	2.15%
Germany	83,517,045	2,784,528	2,669,949	114,579	91,076	23,503	3.33%	75,927	74,715	1,212	2.73%
U.K.	67,530,172	4,347,010	4,310,171	36,839	38,461	-1,622	6.44%	126,832	126,393	439	2.92%
France	65,129,728	4,606,185	4,277,786	328,399	145,914	182,485	7.07%	94,754	92,119	2,635	2.06%
Italy	60,550,075	3,532,067	3,376,376	155,691	153,234	2,457	5.83%	107,933	104,942	2,991	3.06%
Spain	46,692,858	3,255,324	3,212,332	42,992	28,628	14,364	6.97%	75,010	72,910	2,100	2.30%
Greece	10,473,455	254,031	237,125	16,906	15,978	928	2.43%	7,880	7,462	418	3.10%
Sweden	10,036,379	780,018	744,272	35,746	31,745	4,001	7.77%	13,402	13,262	140	1.72%
Country	Population	Infected Total	Infected Prior Week	Infected This Week	Infected Prior Week	Change Last vs. Prior Weeks	Infection Rate	Dead Total	Dead Prior Week	Died Week	Death Rate
AMERICAS
U.S.A	329,064,917	30,254,332	29,810,217	444,115	379,493	64,622	9.19%	549,288	542,246	7,042	1.82%
Argentina	44,780,677	2,301,389	2,241,739	59,650	49,114	10,536	5.14%	55,368	54,517	851	2.41%
Canada	37,411,047	968,087	938,165	29,922	23,958	5,964	2.59%	22,849	22,654	195	2.36%
Brazil	212,559,417	12,490,362	11,950,459	539,903	510,901	29,002	5.88%	310,550	292,752	17,798	2.49%

OTHER
Iran	82,913,906	1,855,674	1,801,065	54,609	54,112	497	2.24%	63,397	61,797	1,600	3.42%
Turkey	83,809,754	3,208,173	3,013,122	195,051	133,732	61,319	3.83%	31,076	30,061	1,015	0.97%
Australia	25,203,198	29,260	29,196	64	79	-15	0.12%	909	909	0	3.11%
New Zeland	4,886,000	2,482	2,453	29	30	-1	0.05%	26	26	0	1.05%
Country	Population	Infected Total	Infected Prior Week	Infected This Week	Infected Prior Week	Change Last vs. Prior Weeks	Infection Rate	Dead Total	Dead Prior Week	Died Week	Death Rate
California	39,512,223	3,659,693	3,640,037	19,656	18,155	1,501	9.26%	58,942	57,470	1,472	1.61%
Texas	28,995,881	2,779,556	2,753,012	26,544	27,394	-850	9.59%	48,093	47,346	747	1.73%
Florida	21,477,737	2,044,005	2,008,349	35,656	31,690	3,966	9.52%	33,178	32,742	436	1.62%
New York	19,453,561	1,850,732	1,782,769	67,963	41,406	26,557	9.51%	50,017	49,426	591	2.70%
Pennsylvania	12,801,989	1,015,173	988,656	26,517	20,397	6,120	7.93%	24,970	24,796	174	2.46%
Illinois	12,671,821	1,237,732	1,221,775	15,957	12,531	3,426	9.77%	23,521	23,357	164	1.90%
Ohio	11,689,100	1,011,622	999,750	11,872	10,559	1,313	8.65%	18,525	18,339	186	1.83%
Georgia	10,617,423	1,055,332	1,044,134	11,198	10,348	850	9.94%	18,962	18,530	432	1.80%
North Carolina	10,488,084	905,528	895,263	10,265	12,548	-2,283	8.63%	12,028	11,820	208	1.33%
Michigan	9,986,857	723,700	691,070	32,630	20,982	11,648	7.25%	17,047	16,906	141	2.36%
New Jersey	8,882,190	896,652	865,886	30,766	28,025	2,741	10.09%	24,389	24,174	215	2.72%
Virginia	8,535,519	615,366	604,604	10,762	9,869	893	7.21%	10,198	10,117	81	1.66%
Washington	7,614,893	361,115	354,782	6,333	5,357	976	4.74%	5,218	5,174	44	1.44%
Arizona	7,278,717	839,868	835,765	4,103	3,671	432	11.54%	16,918	16,733	185	2.01%
Massachusetts	6,949,503	627,556	612,857	14,699	10,549	4,150	9.03%	17,086	16,832	254	2.72%
Tennessee	6,833,174	806,792	798,621	8,171	8,969	-798	11.81%	11,816	11,709	107	1.46%
Indiana	6,733,174	684,020	677,905	6,115	5,361	754	10.16%	13,023	12,646	377	1.90%
Missouri	6,137,428	580,035	575,214	4,821	4,257	564	9.45%	8,796	8,717	79	1.52%
Maryland	6,045,680	408,844	400,023	8,821	6,582	2,239	6.76%	8,251	8,170	81	2.02%
Wisconsin	5,822,434	634,133	629,407	4,726	4,122	604	10.89%	7,274	7,240	34	1.15%
Colorado	5,758,736	457,597	449,878	7,719	7,125	594	7.95%	6,089	6,068	21	1.33%
Minnesota	5,639,632	515,058	505,224	9,834	7,832	2,002	9.13%	6,908	6,850	58	1.34%
South Carolina	5,148,714	549,199	533,421	15,778	0	15,778	10.67%	9,122	8,875	247	1.66%
Alabama	4,903,185	514,391	511,460	2,931	7,787	-4,856	10.43%	10,526	10,436	90	2.05%
Louisiana	4,648,794	443,069	439,737	3,332	2,344	988	9.53%	10,087	9,988	99	2.28%
Kentucky	4,467,794	425,085	420,512	4,573	4,247	326	9.51%	6,026	5,720	306	1.42%
Oregon	4,217,737	163,702	161,531	2,171	2,129	42	3.88%	2,375	2,363	12	1.45%
Oklahoma	3,956,971	436,971	434,491	2,480	2,008	472	11.04%	4,850	4,788	62	1.11%
Connecticut	3,565,287	305,210	296,691	8,519	6,114	2,405	8.56%	7,865	7,832	33	2.58%
Utah	3,205,958	384,562	381,629	2,933	3,250	-317	12.00%	2,114	2,062	52	0.55%
Iowa	3,155,070	349,627	345,710	3,917	2,934	983	11.08%	5,725	5,675	50	1.64%
Nevada	3,080,156	303,861	301,178	2,683	1,891	792	9.87%	5,236	5,172	64	1.72%
Arkansas	3,017,825	329,929	328,547	1,382	1,604	-222	10.93%	5,595	5,533	62	1.70%
Mississippi	2,976,149	304,616	302,837	1,779	2,057	-278	10.24%	7,001	6,956	45	2.30%
Kansas	2,913,314	302,988	301,519	1,469	1,524	-55	10.40%	4,848	4,798	50	1.60%
New Mexico	2,096,829	190,887	189,560	1,327	1,393	-66	9.10%	3,925	3,889	36	2.06%
Nebraska	1,934,408	208,424	206,388	2,036	1,750	286	10.77%	2,175	2,135	40	1.04%
West Virginia	1,792,147	140,613	137,826	2,787	2,358	429	7.85%	2,634	2,606	28	1.87%
Idaho	1,787,147	179,428	177,420	2,008	2,164	-156	10.04%	1,954	1,941	13	1.09%
Hawaii	1,415,872	29,712	29,049	663	545	118	2.10%	461	452	9	1.55%
New Hampshire	1,359,711	82,745	80,316	2,429	1,701	728	6.09%	1,235	1,217	18	1.49%
Maine	1,344,212	49,850	48,464	1,386	1,432	-46	3.71%	736	729	7	1.48%
Montana	1,068,778	104,128	103,060	1,068	1,300	-232	9.74%	1,436	1,414	22	1.38%
Rhode Island	1,059,361	135,775	133,039	2,736	2,537	199	12.82%	2,608	2,595	13	1.92%
Delaware	973,764	94,062	92,287	1,775	1,906	-131	9.66%	1,544	1,529	15	1.64%
South Dakota	884,659	117,244	115,789	1,455	1,166	289	13.25%	1,933	1,923	10	1.65%
North Dakota	762,062	102,583	103,060	-477	2,084	-2,561	13.46%	1,498	1,492	6	1.46%
Alaska	731,545	62,161	61,086	1,075	879	196	8.50%	313	310	3	0.50%
Vermont	623,989	18,820	17,740	1,080	850	230	3.02%	225	219	6	1.20%
Wyoming	578,759	56,046	55,581	465	418	47	9.68%	695	693	2	1.24%