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The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
April 11, 2021
The seven day average of new cases of Covid-19 in Utah.
The infection rate remains low, little changed from the prior week.
Where we go from here largely depends on (1) continued good behavior (SPRING BREAK), (2) increased vaccinations, and (3) little influence from the SARS-CoV-2 mutations
The seven day average of the number of Covid-19 deaths
It was strange to see the death rate elevate yet again.
Data on the progress of vaccination in Utah
This week I adjusted Utah's population to include only age 18 and older. On this basis, Utah has reached 30% vaccination among adults.
We could reach a level of 50% or a bit more by June 1, 2021.
Twice during the past week, more than 40,000 doses were completed in a single day.Utah received new doses of vaccines that have never been higher than last week.
Most Recent Week
April 11, 2021

In Asia, India cases jumped 1.4 million, while the Philippines almost doubled from the prior week. Both of these countries are in the middle of strong outbreaks. Japan experienced a big jump of 7,921 new cases from the prior week.

The number of cases in the United States rose again, but not by much. This looks like the week where you can say the vaccines are really starting to impact results. Forty-two states showed decreases in new cases. Those where cases rose included: Nevada, West Virginia, Idaho, Maine, Montana, Rhode Island, North Dakota, and Wyoming. Areas where there have been large numbers of new cases included Michigan 51,512 down 25,000; New Jersey 25,895 down 35,000, New York 48,216 down 123,000, and Massachusetts down 50%.

New cases in Utah dropped a bit. I still expect a bit of a move  up after SPRING BREAK is over on April 11. The same thing can be expected in many states.

This week I looked up what part of the population is composed of people under age 18. The value I found was 29.5%. Applying this correction to the state's population, 30% of those 18 and older in Utah are now fully vaccinated. This value is currently growing 5% per week. I now expect that the fully vaccinated part of those 18 and older will be near 50% by June 1st.

The Data for This Week:
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected This Week Infected Prior Week Change Last vs. Prior Weeks Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
ASIA                      
China 1,433,783,686 102,840 101,664 1,176 7,165 -5,989 0.01% 4,843 4,841 2 4.71%
India 1,366,417,754 13,445,006 11,971,624 1,473,382 981,973 491,409 0.98% 351,334 161,552 189,782 2.61%
Japan 126,860,301 506,237 468,291 37,946 16,884 21,062 0.40% 9,369 9,050 319 1.85%
Philippenes 108,116,615 864,868 721,892 142,976 73,159 69,817 0.80% 14,945 13,170 1,775 1.73%
Viet Nam 96,462,106 2,693 2,591 102 40 62 0.00% 35 35 0 1.30%
Thailand 69,625,582 32,625 28,734 3,891 393 3,498 0.05% 97 94 3 0.30%
S. Korea 51,225,308 109,559 101,757 7,802 3,522 4,280 0.21% 1,768 1,722 46 1.61%
Taiwan 23,773,876 1,057 1,022 35 25 10 0.00% 11 10 1 1.04%
Hong Kong 7,436,154 11,581 11,446 135 62 73 0.16% 205 205 0 1.77%
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected This Week Infected Prior Week Change Last vs. Prior Weeks Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
EUROPE                      
Russia 145,961,031 4,589,209 4,469,327 119,882 59249 60,633 3.14% 101,282 98,713 2,569 2.21%
Germany 83,517,045 3,011,965 2,784,528 227,437 65,646 161,791 3.61% 78,425 77,021 1,404 2.60%
U.K. 67,530,172 4,384,610 4,347,010 37,600 26,788 10,812 6.49% 127,331 127,078 253 2.90%
France 65,129,728 5,119,585 4,606,185 513,400 276,989 236,411 7.86% 98,909 96,808 2,101 1.93%
Italy 60,550,075 3,769,814 3,532,067 237,747 136,197 101,550 6.23% 114,254 111,030 3,224 3.03%
Spain 46,692,858 3,347,512 3,255,324 92,188 45,641 46,547 7.17% 76,328 75,698 630 2.28%
Greece 10,473,455 295,480 254,031 41,449 21,383 20,066 2.82% 8,380 8,885 -505 2.84%
Sweden 10,036,379 857,401 780,018 77,383 33,173 44,210 8.54% 13,621 13,498 123 1.59%
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected This Week Infected Prior Week Change Last vs. Prior Weeks Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
AMERICAS                      
U.S.A 329,064,917 31,181,260 30,703,999 477,261 449,667 27,594 9.48% 561,973 554,992 6,981 1.80%
Argentina 44,780,677 2,517,300 2,383,537 133,763 82,148 51,615 5.62% 57,647 56,106 1,541 2.29%
Canada 37,411,047 1,064,253 1,008,808 55,445 40,721 14,724 2.84% 23,278 23,060 218 2.19%
Brazil 212,559,417 13,445,006 12,953,597 491,409 463,235 28,174 6.33% 351,334 330,193 21,141 2.61%
                       
OTHER                      
Iran 82,913,906 2,070,141 1,932,074 138,067 76,400 61,667 2.50% 64,490 63,160 1,330 3.12%
Turkey 83,809,754 3,849,011 3,487,050 361,961 278,877 83,084 4.59% 33,939 32,263 1,676 0.88%
Australia 25,203,198 29,405 29,348 57 88 -31 0.12% 909 909 0 3.09%
New Zeland 4,886,000 2,574 2,507 67 25 42 0.05% 26 26 0 1.01%
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected This Week Infected Prior Week Change Last vs. Prior Weeks Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
California 39,512,223 3,698,160 3,675,292 22,868 35,255 -12,387 9.36% 60,444 59,614 830 1.63%
Texas 28,995,881 2,825,675 2,801,734 23,941 48,722 -24,781 9.75% 49,188 48,695 493 1.74%
Florida 21,477,737 2,124,068 2,081,826 42,242 73,477 -31,235 9.89% 34,039 33,674 365 1.60%
New York 19,453,561 1,953,953 1,905,737 48,216 122,968 -74,752 10.04% 51,117 50,633 484 2.62%
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 1,073,924 1,043,524 30,400 54,868 -24,468 8.39% 25,393 25,173 220 2.36%
Illinois 12,671,821 1,279,665 1,256,533 23,132 34,758 -11,626 10.10% 23,793 23,654 139 1.86%
Ohio 11,689,100 1,037,600 1,024,011 13,589 24,261 -10,672 8.88% 18,827 18,643 184 1.81%
Georgia 10,617,423 1,072,700 1,064,654 8,046 20,520 -12,474 10.10% 19,488 19,212 276 1.82%
North Carolina 10,488,084 929,406 916,959 12,447 21,696 -9,249 8.86% 12,248 12,136 112 1.32%
Michigan 9,986,857 820,404 768,892 51,512 77,822 -26,310 8.21% 17,563 17,259 304 2.14%
New Jersey 8,882,190 953,090 927,195 25,895 61,309 -35,414 10.73% 24,637 24,637 0 2.58%
Virginia 8,535,519 635,582 625,148 10,434 20,544 -10,110 7.45% 10,472 10,329 143 1.65%
Washington 7,614,893 376,230 368,403 7,827 13,621 -5,794 4.94% 5,322 5,278 44 1.41%
Arizona 7,278,717 849,021 844,302 4,719 8,537 -3,818 11.66% 17,092 16,990 102 2.01%
Massachusetts 6,949,503 657,578 643,232 14,346 30,375 -16,029 9.46% 17,379 17,281 98 2.64%
Tennessee 6,833,174 822,085 813,614 8,471 14,993 -6,522 12.03% 12,001 11,915 86 1.46%
Indiana 6,733,174 698,692 690,910 7,782 13,005 -5,223 10.38% 13,148 13,074 74 1.88%
Missouri 6,137,428 588,549 584,185 4,364 8,971 -4,607 9.59% 8,884 8,896 -12 1.51%
Maryland 6,045,680 426,720 417,329 9,391 17,306 -7,915 7.06% 8,455 8,350 105 1.98%
Wisconsin 5,822,434 644,901 639,227 5,674 9,820 -4,146 11.08% 7,380 7,340 40 1.14%
Colorado 5,758,736 477,443 466,901 10,542 17,023 -6,481 8.29% 6,155 6,126 29 1.29%
Minnesota 5,639,632 542,053 526,267 15,786 21,043 -5,257 9.61% 7,035 6,953 82 1.30%
South Carolina 5,148,714 562,691 555,274 7,417 21,853 -14,436 10.93% 9,276 9,196 80 1.65%
Alabama 4,903,185 518,899 516,809 2,090 5,349 -3,259 10.54% 10,712 10,637 75 2.06%
Louisiana 4,648,794 448,838 445,469 3,369 5,732 -2,363 9.65% 10,216 10,161 55 2.28%
Kentucky 4,467,794 432,720 429,106 3,614 8,594 -4,980 9.69% 6,241 6,149 92 1.44%
Oregon 4,217,737 170,085 166,882 3,203 5,351 -2,148 4.03% 2,440 2,392 48 1.43%
Oklahoma 3,956,971 442,805 439,149 3,656 4,658 -1,002 11.19% 6,669 4,953 1,716 1.51%
Connecticut 3,565,287 321,586 313,956 7,630 8,746 -1,116 9.02% 7,944 7,904 40 2.47%
Utah 3,205,958 390,104 387,341 2,763 2,779 -16 12.17% 2,159 2,114 45 0.55%
Iowa 3,155,070 356,893 353,280 3,613 3,653 -40 11.31% 5,857 5,822 35 1.64%
Nevada 3,080,156 308,024 305,407 2,617 1,546 1,071 10.00% 5,332 5,274 58 1.73%
Arkansas 3,017,825 332,053 331,054 999 1,125 -126 11.00% 5,661 5,643 18 1.70%
Mississippi 2,976,149 307,332 306,088 1,244 1,472 -228 10.33% 7,095 7,055 40 2.31%
Kansas 2,913,314 305,773 304,429 1,344 1,441 -97 10.50% 4,895 4,889 6 1.60%
New Mexico 2,096,829 193,368 192,152 1,216 1,265 -49 9.22% 3,976 3,949 27 2.06%
Nebraska 1,934,408 214,207 211,812 2,395 3,388 -993 11.07% 2,220 2,181 39 1.04%
West Virginia 1,792,147 146,169 143,156 3,013 2,543 470 8.16% 2,745 2,695 50 1.88%
Idaho 1,787,147 183,153 181,181 1,972 1,753 219 10.25% 1,993 1,966 27 1.09%
Hawaii 1,415,872 31,975 31,241 734 1,529 -795 2.26% 471 467 4 1.47%
New Hampshire 1,359,711 88,446 85,846 2,600 3,101 -501 6.50% 1,256 1,249 7 1.42%
Maine 1,344,212 53,960 51,765 2,195 1,915 280 4.01% 750 745 5 1.39%
Montana 1,068,778 106,183 105,142 1,041 1,014 27 9.93% 1,523 1,436 87 1.43%
Rhode Island 1,059,361 141,097 138,255 2,842 2,480 362 13.32% 2,638 2,608 30 1.87%
Delaware 973,764 98,570 96,376 2,194 2,314 -120 10.12% 1,578 1,566 12 1.60%
South Dakota 884,659 119,705 118,861 844 1,617 -773 13.53% 1,946 1,938 8 1.63%
North Dakota 762,062 104,745 103,638 1,107 1,055 52 13.74% 1,502 1,498 4 1.43%
Alaska 731,545 64,782 63,501 1,281 1,340 -59 8.86% 313 313 0 0.48%
Vermont 623,989 21,202 20,149 1,053 1,329 -276 3.40% 231 229 2 1.09%
Wyoming 578,759 56,873 56,447 426 401 25 9.83% 701 700 1 1.23%
    31,009,737   470,096   42   558,400   6,809  
                       
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