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The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
April 18, 2021
The seven day average of new cases of Covid-19 in Utah.
The infection rate remains low, little changed from the prior two weeks. The 7-day new case average is 379.
Where we go from here largely depends on (1) increased vaccinations. and (2) little influence from the SARS-CoV-2 mutations.
If there is not an increase in cases by next weekend, then with respect to virus spread I'll declare spring break a non-event.
The seven day average of the number of Covid-19 deaths
Finally, we reached a 7-day death rate of just 1 per day or about 7 per week.
Data on the progress of vaccination in Utah

There were vaccine deliveries 5 of the past 7 days. The number of doses injected dropped to an average of 27,781 per day from an average of 29,622 the prior week.
I expect the rates of doses to fall starting around May 1, 2021, as May will be a month where 2nd doses dominate in Utah.
Among those 18 and older, the fully vaccinated rate is now 35%. We might reach 50% by June 1.

 

Most Recent Week
April 18, 2021

The world reached a new milestone this week as the death count from Covid-19 surpassed 3 million.

In Utah vaccination moves forward. The fully vaccinated count was raised to 35% from 29.6%.  The 50% level is in sight, but I can't see it reaching 60%. The case count has plateaued just below 390 cases per week, while the death count dropped to just 5, the thir- lowest in the United States.       

All of the nations I follow in Asia had a decrease in case counts last week, India had a half million new cases but that was down from 1.5 million cases the week before. The rate is still high in the Phillippines but dropped by 50% from the prior week. Japan dropped by 30%. India made an adjustment to its death count dropping it by about 150,000 deaths. I always wonder what really happened when I see such adjustments.

In Europe, case counts were down accross the board. In France, where it had been having a serious spike, the case count dropped by 50% from the prior week.

The number of cases in the United States rose again, but not by much. Hum, the same thing happened the week before. Twenty-six states had decreases in cases including Utah. Those where cases rose significantly included: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Washington, Indiana, Colorado, Alabama, Oregon, Maine

The Data for This Week:
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected This Week Infected Prior Week Change Last vs. Prior Weeks Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
ASIA                      
China 1,433,783,686 102,235 102,840 -605 1,176 -1,781 0.01% 4,845 4,843 2 4.74%
India 1,366,417,754 14,008,659 13,445,006 563,653 1,473,382 -909,729 1.03% 177,150 351,334 -174,184 1.26%
Japan 126,860,301 532,641 506,237 26,404 37,946 -11,542 0.42% 9,599 9,369 230 1.80%
Philippenes 108,116,615 936,133 864,868 71,265 142,976 -71,711 0.87% 15,960 14,945 1,015 1.70%
Viet Nam 96,462,106 2,781 2,693 88 102 -14 0.00% 35 35 0 1.26%
Thailand 69,625,582 42,352 32,625 9,727 3,891 5,836 0.06% 101 97 4 0.24%
S. Korea 51,225,308 114,115 109,559 4,556 7,802 -3,246 0.22% 1,797 1,768 29 1.57%
Taiwan 23,773,876 1,073 1,057 16 35 -19 0.00% 11 11 0 1.03%
Hong Kong 7,436,154 11,683 11,581 102 135 -33 0.16% 209 205 4 1.79%
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected This Week Infected Prior Week Change Last vs. Prior Weeks Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
EUROPE                      
Russia 145,961,031 4,649,044 4,589,209 59,835 119882 -60,047 3.19% 103,834 98,713 5,121 2.23%
Germany 83,517,045 3,155,522 3,011,965 143,557 227,437 -83,880 3.78% 79,974 77,021 2,953 2.53%
U.K. 67,530,172 4,403,058 4,384,610 18,448 37,600 -19,152 6.52% 127,518 127,078 440 2.90%
France 65,129,728 5,350,520 5,119,585 230,935 513,400 -282,465 8.22% 100,892 96,808 4,084 1.89%
Italy 60,550,075 3,870,131 3,769,814 100,317 237,747 -137,430 6.39% 116,927 111,030 5,897 3.02%
Spain 46,692,858 3,407,283 3,347,512 59,771 92,188 -32,417 7.30% 76,981 75,698 1,283 2.26%
Greece 10,473,455 315,273 295,480 19,793 41,449 -21,656 3.01% 9,462 8,885 577 3.00%
Sweden 10,036,379 901,138 857,401 43,737 77,383 -33,646 8.98% 13,788 13,498 290 1.53%
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected This Week Infected Prior Week Change Last vs. Prior Weeks Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
AMERICAS                      
U.S.A 329,064,917 31,663,304 31,181,260 482,044 477,261 4,783 9.62% 567,180 561,973 5,207 1.79%
Argentina 44,780,677 2,677,747 2,517,300 160,447 133,763 26,684 5.98% 59,164 57,647 1,517 2.21%
Canada 37,411,047 1,125,299 1,064,253 61,046 55,445 5,601 3.01% 23,605 23,278 327 2.10%
Brazil 212,559,417 13,900,091 13,445,006 455,085 491,409 -36,324 6.54% 371,678 351,334 20,344 2.67%
                       
OTHER                      
Iran 82,913,906 2,237,089 2,070,141 166,948 138,067 28,881 2.70% 66,732 64,490 2,242 2.98%
Turkey 83,809,754 4,268,447 3,849,011 419,436 361,961 57,475 5.09% 35,926 33,939 1,987 0.84%
Australia 25,203,198 29,519 29,405 114 57 57 0.12% 910 909 1 3.08%
New Zeland 4,886,000 2,595 2,574 21 67 -46 0.05% 26 26 0 1.00%
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected This Week Infected Prior Week Change Last vs. Prior Weeks Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
California 39,512,223 3,717,352 3,698,160 19,192 22,868 -3,676 9.41% 61,033 60,444 589 1.64%
Texas 28,995,881 2,849,972 2,825,675 24,297 23,941 356 9.83% 49,595 49,188 407 1.74%
Florida 21,477,737 2,168,901 2,124,068 44,833 42,242 2,591 10.10% 34,439 34,039 400 1.59%
New York 19,453,561 1,998,912 1,953,953 44,959 48,216 -3,257 10.28% 51,579 51,117 462 2.58%
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 1,107,673 1,073,924 33,749 30,400 3,349 8.65% 25,665 25,393 272 2.32%
Illinois 12,671,821 1,302,134 1,279,665 22,469 23,132 -663 10.28% 23,955 23,793 162 1.84%
Ohio 11,689,100 1,053,175 1,037,600 15,575 13,589 1,986 9.01% 18,991 18,827 164 1.80%
Georgia 10,617,423 1,084,272 1,072,700 11,572 8,046 3,526 10.21% 19,758 19,488 270 1.82%
North Carolina 10,488,084 943,693 929,406 14,287 12,447 1,840 9.00% 12,387 12,248 139 1.31%
Michigan 9,986,857 873,700 820,404 53,296 51,512 1,784 8.75% 17,934 17,563 371 2.05%
New Jersey 8,882,190 978,853 953,090 25,763 25,895 -132 11.02% 25,143 24,637 506 2.57%
Virginia 8,535,519 646,133 635,582 10,551 10,434 117 7.57% 10,581 10,472 109 1.64%
Washington 7,614,893 385,549 376,230 9,319 7,827 1,492 5.06% 5,380 5,322 58 1.40%
Arizona 7,278,717 853,050 849,021 4,029 4,719 -690 11.72% 17,151 17,092 59 2.01%
Massachusetts 6,949,503 671,250 657,578 13,672 14,346 -674 9.66% 17,455 17,379 76 2.60%
Tennessee 6,833,174 830,484 822,085 8,399 8,471 -72 12.15% 12,049 12,001 48 1.45%
Indiana 6,733,174 708,067 698,692 9,375 7,782 1,593 10.52% 13,224 13,148 76 1.87%
Missouri 6,137,428 583,903 588,549 -4,646 4,364 -9,010 9.51% 9,009 8,884 125 1.54%
Maryland 6,045,680 436,028 426,720 9,308 9,391 -83 7.21% 8,562 8,455 107 1.96%
Wisconsin 5,822,434 651,545 644,901 6,644 5,674 970 11.19% 7,420 7,380 40 1.14%
Colorado 5,758,736 489,028 477,443 11,585 10,542 1,043 8.49% 6,188 6,155 33 1.27%
Minnesota 5,639,632 556,381 542,053 14,328 15,786 -1,458 9.87% 7,098 7,035 63 1.28%
South Carolina 5,148,714 569,279 562,691 6,588 7,417 -829 11.06% 9,336 9,276 60 1.64%
Alabama 4,903,185 522,401 518,899 3,502 2,090 1,412 10.58% 10,790 10,712 78 2.07%
Louisiana 4,648,794 451,955 448,838 3,117 3,369 -252 9.72% 10,282 10,216 66 2.28%
Kentucky 4,467,794 437,312 432,720 4,592 3,614 978 9.79% 6,338 6,241 97 1.45%
Oregon 4,217,737 175,121 170,085 5,036 3,203 1,833 4.15% 2,460 2,440 20 1.40%
Oklahoma 3,956,971 444,863 442,805 2,058 3,656 -1,598 11.24% 6,697 6,669 28 1.51%
Connecticut 3,565,287 329,062 321,586 7,476 7,630 -154 9.23% 7,995 7,944 51 2.43%
Utah 3,205,958 392,757 390,104 2,653 2,763 -110 12.25% 2,164 2,159 5 0.55%
Iowa 3,155,070 360,016 356,893 3,123 3,613 -490 11.41% 5,881 5,857 24 1.63%
Nevada 3,080,156 310,235 308,024 2,211 2,617 -406 10.07% 5,365 5,332 33 1.73%
Arkansas 3,017,825 333,407 332,053 1,354 999 355 11.05% 5,693 5,661 32 1.71%
Mississippi 2,976,149 309,186 307,332 1,854 1,244 610 10.39% 7,153 7,095 58 2.31%
Kansas 2,913,314 307,407 305,773 1,634 1,344 290 10.55% 4,909 4,895 14 1.60%
New Mexico 2,096,829 194,868 193,368 1,500 1,216 284 9.29% 4,001 3,976 25 2.05%
Nebraska 1,934,408 216,473 214,207 2,266 2,395 -129 11.19% 2,213 2,220 -7 1.02%
West Virginia 1,792,147 148,887 146,169 2,718 3,013 -295 8.31% 2,785 2,745 40 1.87%
Idaho 1,787,147 184,769 183,153 1,616 1,972 -356 10.34% 2,017 1,993 24 1.09%
Hawaii 1,415,872 32,647 31,975 672 734 -62 2.31% 474 471 3 1.45%
New Hampshire 1,359,711 91,279 88,446 2,833 2,600 233 6.71% 1,266 1,256 10 1.39%
Maine 1,344,212 57,285 53,960 3,325 2,195 1,130 4.26% 765 750 15 1.34%
Montana 1,068,778 107,145 106,183 962 1,041 -79 10.03% 1,546 1,523 23 1.44%
Rhode Island 1,059,361 144,149 141,097 3,052 2,842 210 13.61% 2,647 2,638 9 1.84%
Delaware 973,764 101,158 98,570 2,588 2,194 394 10.39% 1,602 1,578 24 1.58%
South Dakota 884,659 121,056 119,705 1,351 844 507 13.68% 1,953 1,946 7 1.61%
North Dakota 762,062 105,754 104,745 1,009 1,107 -98 13.88% 1,510 1,502 8 1.43%
Alaska 731,545 65,121 64,782 339 1,281 -942 8.90% 334 313 21 0.51%
Vermont 623,989 22,016 21,202 814 1,053 -239 3.53% 242 231 11 1.10%
Wyoming 578,759 57,267 56,873 394 426 -32 9.89% 703 701 2 1.23%
    31,482,930   473,193   26   563,717   5,317  
                       
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