theHaslams.com
The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
Report for April 2022
See the index to all available reports.
Publication Note:
Other reports for Utah added during April 2022
April 2022 update on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The data is all from April 3, 2022 as as sourced from Johns Hopkins University.
The weekly seven day average of new cases of Covid-19 in Utah has fallen to to near 100 per day!
The weekly seven day average of Covid-19 deaths in Utah.
Note: a batch of delayed confirmed deaths was posted in late March. See the most recent spike.
Most Recent Month
***SARS-Cov-2 - Pandemic or Endemic***
*** Focus on Utah ***
The 7-day moving average of new infections in Utah has declined again from 327 per day to just 122. We are in good shape. The coming Omnicron-2 (BA.2) variant will like cause a blip up to perhaps 300/day in the coming weeks.
*** Focus on the United States ***

Likewise the United States is doing well. East coast states are starting to recognized a uptrend in infections from Omicron-2 (BA.2).

*** Focus on the World ***

Asia is still bad with Omicron 1 and Europe is fighting Omicron 2. The U.S. had under 1,000,000 cases in March out of 80,000,000 total. That said at some time in April the U.S. will record the 1,000,000th death from the virus.

South Korea reached an infection rate of 27% with over 15,000,00 infections in March. Vietnam once like China with few infections raced to a total of over 9 million, but their infection rate is still below 10%. Other nations including Thailand were not nearly as

Taiwan has an infection rate of only 0.10%, the same as China but China has 60 times the population of Taiwan.

In Europe Germany, France and Greece are elevated with around a 10% infection rate for March. Other nations are less, for example, Spain was under 2%. My guess is that the U.S. will have about a 2% infection rate at the max of Omicron 2, because like Spain the U.S. had high infection rates prior to Omicron 2 arriving.

Total pandemic infection rates in Asia are much lower than in Europe, the United States, or Brazil.

World Data for April 3, 2022
Country 2010 Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected Total Last 2 Weeks Infected Last 2 Weeks Infection Rate last 2 weeks Infected Prior 2 Weeks Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Total Deaths 2 wks ago Deaths Last 2 Weeks Death Rate Last 2 weeks
ASIA                        
China 1,433,783,686 1,429,495 0.10% 1,178,070 251,425 0.02% 251,425 12,810 0.90% 10,534 2,276 0.19%
India 1,366,417,754 43,028,131 3.15% 43,007,841 20,290 0.00% 20,290 521,345 1.21% 516,479 4,866 0.01%
Japan 126,860,301 6,700,637 5.28% 6,100,331 600,306 0.47% 600,306 28,287 0.42% 27,122 1,165 0.02%
Philippines 108,116,615 3,679,629 3.40% 3,674,286 5,343 0.00% 5,343 59,343 1.61% 58,263 1,080 0.03%
Viet Nam 96,462,106 9,716,282 10.07% 7,791,841 1,924,441 2.00% 1,924,441 42,563 0.44% 41,817 746 0.01%
Thailand 69,625,582 3,711,595 5.33% 3,353,969 357,626 0.51% 357,626 25,415 0.68% 24,246 1,169 0.03%
S. Korea 51,225,308 13,874,216 27.08% 9,373,646 4,500,570 8.79% 4,500,570 17,235 0.12% 12,428 4,807 0.05%
Taiwan 23,773,876 24,312 0.10% 21,905 2,407 0.01% 2,407 853 3.51% 853 0 0.00%
Hong Kong NA                      
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected Total Last 2 Weeks Infected Last 2 Weeks Infection Rate last 2 weeks Infected Prior 2 Weeks Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Deaths Last 2 Weeks Death Rate Last 2 weeks
EUROPE                        
Russia 145,961,031 17,636,019 12.08% 17,317,818 318,201 0.22% 318,201 362,304 2.05% 357,234 5,070 0.03%
Germany 83,517,045 21,665,200 25.94% 18,730,442 2,934,758 3.51% 2,934,758 130,209 0.60% 126,920 3,289 0.02%
U.K. 67,530,172 21,379,545 31.66% 20,243,940 1,135,605 1.68% 1,135,605 166,168 0.78% 164,099 2,069 0.01%
France 65,129,728 26,186,606 40.21% 24,241,956 1,944,650 5.00% 1,944,650 143,540 0.55% 141,931 1,609 0.01%
Italy 60,550,075 14,845,815 24.52% 13,861,743 984,072 1.63% 984,072 159,784 1.08% 157,785 1,999 0.01%
Spain 46,692,858 11,551,574 24.74% 11,324,637 226,937 0.49% 226,937 102,541 0.89% 101,703 838 0.01%
Greece 10,473,455 3,077,711 29.39% 2,788,654 289,057 2.76% 289,057 27,684 0.90% 26,937 747 0.03%
Sweden 10,036,379 2,487,852 24.79% 2,455,966 31,886 0.32% 31,886 18,365 0.74% 18,053 312 0.01%
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected Total Last 2 Weeks Infected Last 2 Weeks Infection Rate last 2 weeks Infected Prior 2 Weeks Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Deaths Last 2 Weeks Death Rate Last 2 weeks
AMERICAS                        
U.S.A 329,064,917 80,151,387 24.36% 79,733,159 418,228 0.13% 418,228 982,533 1.23% 971,162 11,371 0.01%
Canada 37,411,047 3,506,282 9.37% 3,434,964 71,318 0.19% 71,318 37,728 1.08% 37,215 513 0.01%
Brazil 212,559,417 29,995,575 14.11% 29,584,800 410,775 0.19% 410,775 660,533 2.20% 657,389 3,144 0.01%
                         
Middle East                        
Iran 82,913,906 7,167,646 8.64% 7,141,033 26,613 0.03% 26,613 140,315 1.96% 139,610 705 0.01%
Turkey 83,809,754 14,894,731 17.77% 14,693,917 200,814 0.24% 200,814 98,157 0.66% 97,267 890 0.01%
                         
Other                        
Australia 25,203,198 3,903,113 15.49% 3,903,113 0 0.00% 37,522 5,730 0.15% 5,730 0 0.00%
April 28, 2022
As expected the Utah Department of Health UDOH, reported an increasing number of infections in the past week. This is in response to the ongoing BA.2 surge. The most recent week reflected 242 new cases per day versus 171 the prior week. This number will probably grow for 2-3 more weeks before declining.

The Centers for Disease Control (Atlanta GA) reported that they believe 58% of all Americans have antibodies from actual infection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. If you add that to those who are fully vaccinated and boosted, you have a number that is approaching herd immunity. We just don't know how many were vaccinated and then infected by the virus, which could impact these numbers.

In any case, this "surge" is likely to be muted by numbers that are near herd immunity.

April 24, 2022

Last Thursday's data from the Utah Department of Health shows that the BA.2 ramp in infection has arrived. Reported cases jumped from 106/day the prior week to 171/day this last week. 171/day is the highest number since the week of March 11. My guess is that cases will rise to 300-500/day before again receding.

We know that with the broad distribution of at-home test kits not all cases are reported. We just don't know how many. The state is now actively tracing sewage content to monitor spread, and that has been rising for 3 weeks now.

Deaths from Covid-19 remain at 1 per day. Utah does such in-depth investigation of Covid-19 deaths that it can be 30 days or more before they are reported.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Utah was #1 in addressing the pandemic. Too bad they left out infection rate from their metrics. Yes, Utah's economy did well, and deaths from Covid-19 were the lowest in the nation. This was mostly due to Utah's population being younger and more healthy than almost all states. Utah failed at controlling the spread of the disease as shown by a top 10 rating in infection rate. Lower the spread, lower the deaths.