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The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
Report for October 2021
See the index to all available reports.
Publication Note:
This is the fifth report using a new monthly report on the SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic. Johns Hopkins University started to provide a new data elements which represent data for the most recent twenty-eight days. This data is ncluded in the data table. This time we compute the difference between the prior 29-day period [September 5 - October 2] and the current 28-day period [October 10 - November 7] to see how things are changing.

Also see weekly data for Utah starting November 12: Weekly data for Utah.

The weekly seven day average of new cases of Covid-19 in Utah.
The weekly seven day average of Covid-19 deaths in Utah.
Most Recent Month
*** Focus on Utah ***
During the last month the spread of the visus has dropped dramatically in many places accross the United States, but not in Utah where the infection count for both 29-day periods is almost equal (down just 1%). Meanwhile accross the United Stateas the new case count is down 68%. Utah is the 8th worst in the nation at reducing its case count during the most recent 28-day period.

Also, death rates during the delta variant surge are HIGHER than they were previously.

  1. The delta variant is more deadly than other strains
  2. The delta variant was much better at overloading our hospitals, causing increased mortality.
  3. Staffing shortages at our hospitals lead to less service and added mortality.

Probably all of the above were contributors. As I previously posted, Utah's death rate rose with the delta variant. For the most recent 28 days, Utah's death rate was 0.72%, which was good enough for 5th place among all states, while for the full pandemic it is 0.59%, second-best among all states except for Alaska.

As far as treatment, hats off to Utah's medical system. As for limiting the spread of the virus, Utah has done poorly. Our infection rate for the full pandemic is 17.49% ranking us 7th worst and get this that is even higher than Florida! North Dakota is the worst at 19.92% while Hawaii (5.64% - lots of outdoor stuff here) and Vermont (6.78%) are the best. Tropical islands have been stellar at low infections rates. I think Tonga just had its first case. The outdoors is really a safe place (unless you stand shoulder to shoulder for a long time as would happen at an outdoor concert.)

*** Focus on the United States ****

New cases of Covid-19 fell by 64% a truly dramatic drop! Most states had a decrease, while others recorded higher infection counts between the two 28-day periods referenced at tthe top of this page:

The states with the biggest drops:

  1. Florida down 79%
  2. Kentucky down 78%
  3. Tennessee down 77%
  4. Georgia down 74%
  5. S. Carolina down 74%
The states with the biggest increases:
  1. Colorado up 41%
  2. Michigan up 37%
  3. Minnesota up 34%
  4. New Mexico up 29%
  5. New Hampshire 25%
Utah was 8th worst with a 1% decrease

*** Focus on the rest of the World ***

I don't follow all countries on earth just a select few of them. Here are some of the best changes in spread of the virus:

  1. Japan down 93%
  2. U.K. down 84%
  3. U.S.A. down 68%
  4. India down 51%
  5. Brazil down 47%
  6. Thailand down 28%
Here are some of the worst:
  1. Germany up 94%
  2. Russia up 76%
  3. Greece up 71%

The Data for the week ending November 7, 2021 -Table renders properly with Edge Browser
Country Population Infected Current Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
ASIA                              
China 1,433,783,686 110,179 0.01% 1442 0.00% 1,342 100 7.5% 4,849 4.40% 0 0.00% 1 1 100.0%
India 1,366,417,754 34,355,509 2.51% 402034 0.03% 825,230 -423,196 -51.3% 460,791 1.34% 10,202 2.54% 8,284 -1,918 -23.2%
Japan 126,860,301 1,723,924 1.36% 9523 0.01% 142,482 -132,959 -93.3% 18,306 1.06% 379 3.98% 1,391 1,012 72.8%
Philippines 108,116,615 2,803,213 2.59% 146171 0.14% 519,089 -372,918 -71.8% 44,430 1.58% 4,734 3.24% 4,594 -140 -3.0%
Viet Nam 96,462,106 968,684 1.00% 124904 0.13% 292,032 -167,128 -57.2% 22,531 2.33% 2,028 1.62% 6,808 4,780 70.2%
Thailand 69,625,582 1,967,999 2.83% 259972 0.37% 361,522 -101,550 -28.1% 19,664 1.00% 2,004 0.77% 4,306 2,302 53.5%
S. Korea 51,225,308 379,935 0.74% 48416 0.09% 57,701 -9,285 -16.1% 2,967 0.78% 392 0.81% 186 -206 -110.8%
Taiwan 23,773,876 16,442 0.07% 151 0.00% 231 -80 -34.6% 847 5.15% 1 0.66% 6 5 83.3%
Hong Kong NA                            
Country Population Infected Current Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
EUROPE                              
Russia 145,961,031 8,651,561 5.93% 982,499 0.67% 555,576 426,923 76.8% 242,241 2.80% 29,468 3.00% 22,180 -7,288 -32.9%
Germany 83,517,045 4,780,569 5.72% 474,026 0.57% 240,685 233,341 96.9% 96,531 2.02% 2,323 0.49% 1,439 -884 -61.4%
U.K. 67,530,172 9,346,958 13.84% 142,236 0.21% 934,096 -791,860 -84.8% 142,236 1.52% 4,073 2.86% 3,810 -263 -6.9%
France 65,129,728 7,319,526 11.24% 158,958 0.24% 205,550 -46,592 -22.7% 118,866 1.62% 940 0.59% 2,226 1286 57.8%
Italy 60,550,075 4,808,047 7.94% 104,187 0.17% 112,941 -8,754 -7.8% 132,391 2.75% 1,091 1.05% 1,532 441 28.8%
Spain 46,692,858 50,025,639 107.14% 52,020 0.11% 83,373 -31,353 -37.6% 87,504 0.17% 726 1.40% 1,668 942 56.5%
Greece 10,473,455 784,904 7.49% 105,142 1.00% 61,499 43,643 71.0% 16,295 2.08% 1,138 1.08% 1,046 -92 -8.8%
Sweden 10,036,379 1,153,655 11.49% 23,130 0.23% 19,272 3,858 20.0% 15,057 1.31% 152 0.66% 176 24 13.6%
Country Population Infected Current Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
AMERICAS                              
U.S.A 329,064,917 46,482,837 14.13% 1,158,137 0.35% 3,658,765 -2,500,628 -68.3% 754,395 1.62% 40,289 3.48% 52,269 11980 22.9%
Canada 37,411,047 1,738,543 4.65% 71,940 0.19% 118,277 -46,337 -39.2% 29,203 1.68% 946 1.31% 927 -19 -2.0%
Brazil 212,559,417 21,874,324 10.29% 307,143 0.14% 581,253 -274,110 -47.2% 609,388 2.79% 8,559 2.79% 14,361 5802 40.4%
                               
Middle East                              
Iran 82,913,906 5,987,814 7.22% 288,626 0.35% 519,089 -230,463 -44.4% 127,299 2.13% 4,803 1.66% 10,816 6013 55.6%
Turkey 83,809,754 8,233,649 9.82% 790,193 0.94% 702,867 87,326 12.4% 72,127 0.88% 5,943 0.75% 6,403 460 7.2%
                               
Other                              
Australia 25,203,198 180,307 0.72% 52,843 0.21% 49,769 3,074 6.2% 1,334 0.74% 383 0.72% 295 -88 -29.8%
                               
UNITED STATES                              
State Population Infected Current Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
Florida 21,477,737 3,701,310 17.23% 56,020 0.26% 267,655 -211,635 -79% 60,334 1.63% 3,667 6.55% 8975 5,308 59.1%
Kentucky 4,467,794 750,985 16.81% 40,621 0.91% 182,985 -142,364 -78% 9,939 1.32% 886 2.18% 959 73 7.6%
Tennessee 6,833,174 1,286,713 18.83% 37,380 0.55% 160,695 -123,315 -77% 16,500 1.28% 951 2.54% 1576 625 39.7%
Georgia 10,617,423 1,641,036 15.46% 38,369 0.36% 148,349 -109,980 -74% 29,483 1.80% 2,341 6.10% 3122 781 25.0%
South Carolina 5,148,714 902,372 17.53% 28,316 0.55% 107,991 -79,675 -74% 13,841 1.53% 912 3.22% 1789 877 49.0%
Mississippi 2,976,149 506,556 17.02% 12,285 0.41% 42,353 -30,068 -71% 10,148 2.00% 337 2.74% 1106 769 69.5%
Louisiana 4,648,794 761,849 16.39% 14,520 0.31% 45,006 -30,486 -68% 14,615 1.92% 442 3.04% 1281 839 65.5%
Texas 28,995,881 4,260,852 14.69% 130,847 0.45% 382,281 -251,434 -66% 71,957 1.69% 4,928 3.77% 7513 2,585 34.4%
Alabama 4,903,185 836,032 17.05% 28,261 0.58% 80,520 -52,259 -65% 15,384 1.84% 977 3.46% 2055 1,078 52.5%
Arkansas 3,017,825 515,979 17.10% 13,547 0.45% 34,853 -21,306 -61% 8,483 1.64% 652 4.81% 686 34 5.0%
North Carolina 10,488,084 1,489,653 14.20% 64,591 0.62% 162,824 -98,233 -60% 18,251 1.23% 1,147 1.78% 1897 750 39.5%
Oklahoma 3,956,971 648,209 16.38% 25,429 0.64% 54,367 -28,938 -53% 10,879 1.68% 1,666 6.55% 948 -718 -75.7%
Virginia 8,535,519 933,542 10.94% 45,363 0.53% 91,161 -45,798 -50% 14,125 1.51% 1,050 2.31% 907 -143 -15.8%
Indiana 6,733,174 1,030,291 15.30% 47,874 0.71% 92,502 -44,628 -48% 16,898 1.64% 916 1.91% 1116 200 17.9%
West Virginia 1,792,147 277,814 15.50% 25,066 1.40% 47,187 -22,121 -47% 4,518 1.63% 583 2.33% 598 15 2.5%
Missouri 6,137,428 867,812 14.14% 28,726 0.47% 53,826 -25,100 -47% 12,704 1.46% 523 1.82% 877 354 40.4%
Ohio 11,689,100 1,572,197 13.45% 105,902 0.91% 178,663 -72,761 -41% 25,067 1.59% 913 0.86% 769 -144 -18.7%
Nevada 3,080,156 443,641 14.40% 17,234 0.56% 27,734 -10,500 -38% 7,712 1.74% 428 2.48% 583 155 26.6%
New Jersey 8,882,190 1,159,632 13.06% 35,896 0.40% 57,404 -21,508 -37% 23,975 2.07% 1,273 3.55% 523 -750 -143.4%
Oregon 4,217,737 372,137 8.82% 31,024 0.74% 47,836 -16,812 -35% 4,652 1.25% 580 1.87% 543 -37 -6.8%
Kansas 2,913,314 441,137 15.14% 22,734 0.78% 34,082 -11,348 -33% 6,498 1.47% 368 1.62% 437 69 15.8%
Delaware 973,764 145,612 14.95% 8,324 0.85% 12,473 -4,149 -33% 2,119 1.46% 27 0.32% 81 54 66.7%
Illinois 12,671,821 1,712,986 13.52% 62,878 0.50% 92,540 -29,662 -32% 28,381 1.66% 724 1.15% 950 226 23.8%
Maryland 6,045,680 566,082 9.36% 22,469 0.37% 32,928 -10,459 -32% 10,974 1.94% 382 1.70% 413 31 7.5%
Connecticut 3,565,287 404,969 11.36% 10,961 0.31% 15,931 -4,970 -31% 8,790 2.17% 123 1.12% 256 133 52.0%
Washington 7,614,893 737,698 9.69% 59,703 0.78% 85,420 -25,717 -30% 8,798 1.19% 776 1.30% 1074 298 27.7%
California 39,512,223 4,960,710 12.55% 164,797 0.42% 230,023 -65,226 -28% 72,525 1.46% 2,913 1.77% 2859 -54 -1.9%
Rhode Island 1,059,361 181,079 17.09% 6,509 0.61% 8,977 -2,468 -27% 2,881 1.59% 27 0.41% 65 38 58.5%
Iowa 3,155,070 494,407 15.67% 33,055 1.05% 44,002 -10,947 -25% 7,069 1.43% 415 1.26% 256 -159 -62.1%
Wyoming 578,759 105,318 18.20% 11,015 1.90% 13,963 -2,948 -21% 1,243 1.18% 202 1.83% 138 -64 -46.4%
South Dakota 884,659 156,995 17.75% 9,175 1.04% 11,619 -2,444 -21% 2,267 1.44% 96 1.05% 71 -25 -35.2%
Massachusetts 6,949,503 861,480 12.40% 37,995 0.55% 48,015 -10,020 -21% 19,087 2.22% 341 0.90% 361 20 5.5%
New York 19,453,561 2,585,365 13.29% 110,706 0.57% 138,406 -27,700 -20% 56,692 2.19% 987 0.89% 1056 69 6.5%
Idaho 1,787,147 296,299 16.58% 27,845 1.56% 34,468 -6,623 -19% 3,646 1.23% 524 1.88% 585 61 10.4%
Alaska 731,545 142,118 19.43% 20,770 2.84% 25,061 -4,291 -17% 741 0.52% 149 0.72% 130 -19 -14.6%
Wisconsin 5,822,434 899,647 15.45% 64,590 1.11% 72,952 -8,362 -11% 9,542 1.06% 536 0.83% 380 -156 -41.1%
Nebraska 1,934,408 289,282 14.95% 17,732 0.92% 19,759 -2,027 -10% 3,001 1.04% 146 0.82% 80 -66 -82.5%
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 1,593,122 12.44% 114,915 0.90% 122,431 -7,516 -6% 31,897 2.00% 1,990 1.73% 1108 -882 -79.6%
Maine 1,344,212 107,772 8.02% 12,824 0.95% 13,399 -575 -4% 1,207 1.12% 132 1.03% 187 55 29.4%
Arizona 7,278,717 1,189,708 16.35% 70,058 0.96% 72,808 -2,750 -4% 21,409 1.80% 1,058 1.51% 1137 79 6.9%
Montana 1,068,778 180,452 16.88% 21,772 2.04% 22,518 -746 -3% 2,415 1.34% 336 1.54% 206 -130 -63.1%
North Dakota 762,062 151,840 19.92% 13,966 1.83% 14,125 -159 -1% 1,827 1.20% 151 1.08% 59 -92 -155.9%
Utah 3,205,958 560,604 17.49% 40,414 1.26% 40,780 -366 -1% 3,286 0.59% 292 0.72% 285 -7 -2.5%
Hawaii 1,415,872 79,851 5.64% 13,073 0.92% 13,073 0 0% 801 1.00% 187 1.43% 187 0 0.0%
Vermont 623,989 42,313 6.78% 6,449 1.03% 5,197 1,252 24% 384 0.91% 49 0.76% 40 -9 -22.5%
New Hampshire 1,359,711 139,324 10.25% 15,116 1.11% 12,050 3,066 25% 1,597 1.15% 100 0.66% 55 -45 -81.8%
New Mexico 2,096,829 282,742 13.48% 23,799 1.13% 18,425 5,374 29% 4,518 1.60% 244 1.03% 260 16 6.2%
Minnesota 5,639,632 815,008 14.45% 79,362 1.41% 59,372 19,990 34% 8,952 1.10% 544 0.69% 336 -208 -61.9%
Michigan 9,986,857 1,309,655 13.11% 120,965 1.21% 88,456 32,509 37% 23,975 1.83% 1,273 1.05% 767 -506 -66.0%
Colorado 5,758,736 760,543 13.21% 71,988 1.25% 51,173 20,815 41% 8,407 1.11% 674 0.94% 400 -274 -68.5%
November 12, 2021
Steady as we go. Aie, captain steady we go.

So goes SARS-CoV-2 infections in Utah.

The average daily count for the last 3 weeks is steady at around 1,550 cases per day. It feels like Covid-19 is on autopilot and still finding good rides.

We are approaching the level where 1 in every 5 Utahn's has been infected.

The death rate (one of the best in America) is steady at 0.59%, meaning among those infected about 1 in every 170 infected by SARS-CoV-2 dies.

While most of the United States fell dramatically between September and October, Utah did not. The low was 1280 cases the week ending October 15 and the high was 1572 cases the week of September 17.

We are approaching the level where 1 in every 5 Utahn's has been infected.

The death rate (one of the best in America) is steady at 0.59%, meaning among those infected about 1 in every 170 infected by SARS-CoV-2 dies.

Cases in Utah's public schools total 19,773. Up from 17,791 two weeks ago. That's about 1,000 per week, which is down a bit from the prior rate.

November 19, 2021
Here we go again! Parts of Europe looking bad. Some parts of the U.S. appear to be going into the fourth wave of Covid-19, while Utah has not finished the third wave.

We hit a new peak for our third wave this past week with 11,422 new Covid-19 cases for a daily average of 1632. Ok, that is just over 500 more cases than the prior week, but it is a new peak for our third wave.

As the air is again COLD and more people are staying indoors, we are suffering more cases. Apparently, an 85% vaccination rate is required to really drop the spread. Utah is just under 60% when considering only those five years and older.

The count of cases associated with our public schools is 22,083 up from 19,773 which includes a person in my own neighborhood.

With Thanksgiving coming up I think we need to expect a greater number of infections over the next few weeks, but nothing like we saw a year ago when only people in the vaccine trials were vaccinated.

If you are not vaccinated, please offer a scientifically valid reason why not. I was quite young when the polio vaccine was first available. I remember going to the drive-in movie to get a sugar cube with the vaccine in it. The line was long, but most people got in line for the vaccine.

November 26, 2021
So the numbers for this week are down, but I believe it is all due to delayed reporting due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

The new infection count fell from 11,422 to 9,201. The number of deaths fell from 81 to 59.

The new infection count fell from 11,422 to 9,201. The number of deaths fell from 81 to 59.

When we get next week's data I think we will see compensation for the missing data this week.

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