Starting a week ago we began to see the first significant drop in new cases since the start of the surge related to the delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The drop this past week was not as large as expected, but still reinforces the expectation that the number of cases in Utah will continue to drop. The most recent 7-day death rate also declined slightly, but processing Covid-19 deaths in Utah can take weeks to process so this data does not always make sense. The total number of cases related to public schools rose to 8,845 from 7,314 the prior week.
During the month of September total number of cases in Utah exceeded 500,000. Almost 16% of the state's population has been infected with the virus.
The 10 states with the most cases (population adjusted) are (worst to best. Kentucky, Alaska, West Virginia, Wyoming, Tennessee, Montana, South Carolina, Idaho, North Dakota, Alabama, North Carolina. Last month most of these cases were in the southeastern United States. Now only South Carolina and Alabama remain. The rest of the list are states further north.
The 10 states with the least cases (population adjusted) are (best to worst) are: Connecticut, Maryland, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York, Illinois, Vermont, Rhode Island, Missouri, New Mexico. This list includes many northeastern states, even though in most of these states their infection rates are a bit higher.
The United States had 1.1% of its population infected in the last 28 days.
A notable element in the data was the significant growth in deaths in most states across the country. This pushed the United States exceeded 700,000 deaths.
Infection rates have come down in Asia, yet in India, Thailand, and the Philippines, 2% of the population were infected in the past 28 days. European countries were generally below 1% except for the U.K.
In Europe, the U.K., France, and Greece are somewhat better than the United States. Other European nations are doing much better.
| Country | Population | Infected Current Count | Overall Infection Rate | Infected last 28 days | Infection Rate last 28 days | Total Deaths | Overall Death Rate | Deaths Last 28 Days | Death Rate Last 28 days |
| ASIA | |||||||||
| China | 1,433,783,686 | 108,528 | 0.01% | 1342 | 0.00% | 4,849 | 4.47% | 1 | 0.07% |
| India | 1,366,417,754 | 33,813,903 | 2.47% | 825230 | 0.06% | 448,817 | 1.33% | 8,284 | 1.00% |
| Japan | 126,860,301 | 1,705,916 | 1.34% | 142482 | 0.11% | 17,747 | 1.04% | 1,391 | 0.98% |
| Philippenes | 108,116,615 | 2,593,399 | 2.40% | 519089 | 0.48% | 38,768 | 1.49% | 4,594 | 0.89% |
| Viet Nam | 96,462,106 | 808,578 | 0.84% | 292032 | 0.30% | 19,715 | 2.44% | 6,808 | 2.33% |
| Thailand | 69,625,582 | 1,637,432 | 2.35% | 361522 | 0.52% | 17,014 | 1.04% | 4,306 | 1.19% |
| S. Korea | 51,225,308 | 318,105 | 0.62% | 57701 | 0.11% | 2,507 | 0.79% | 186 | 0.32% |
| Taiwan | 23,773,876 | 16,250 | 0.07% | 231 | 0.00% | 843 | 5.19% | 6 | 2.60% |
| Hong Kong | NA | ||||||||
| Country | Population | Infected Current Count | Overall Infection Rate | Infected last 28 days | Infection Rate last 28 days | Total Deaths | Overall Death Rate | Deaths Last 28 Days | Death Rate Last 28 days |
| EUROPE | |||||||||
| Russia | 145,961,031 | 7,474,850 | 5.12% | 555,576 | 0.38% | 206,179 | 2.76% | 22,180 | 3.99% |
| Germany | 83,517,045 | 4,256,909 | 5.10% | 240,685 | 0.29% | 93,792 | 2.20% | 1,439 | 0.60% |
| U.K. | 67,530,172 | 7,937,766 | 11.75% | 934,096 | 1.38% | 137,338 | 1.73% | 3,810 | 0.41% |
| France | 65,129,728 | 7,116,470 | 10.93% | 205,550 | 0.32% | 117,586 | 1.65% | 2,226 | 1.08% |
| Italy | 60,550,075 | 4,682,034 | 7.73% | 112,941 | 0.19% | 131,031 | 2.80% | 1,532 | 1.36% |
| Spain | 46,692,858 | 4,961,128 | 10.63% | 83,373 | 0.18% | 86,463 | 1.74% | 1,668 | 2.00% |
| Greece | 10,473,455 | 661,308 | 6.31% | 61,499 | 0.59% | 14,920 | 2.26% | 1,046 | 1.70% |
| Sweden | 10,036,379 | 1,153,655 | 11.49% | 23,130 | 0.23% | 14,868 | 1.29% | 176 | 0.76% |
| Country | Population | Infected Current Count | Overall Infection Rate | Infected last 28 days | Infection Rate last 28 days | Total Deaths | Overall Death Rate | Deaths Last 28 Days | Death Rate Last 28 days |
| AMERICAS | |||||||||
| U.S.A | 329,064,917 | 43,669,745 | 13.27% | 3,658,765 | 1.11% | 700,982 | 1.61% | 52,269 | 1.43% |
| Canada | 37,411,047 | 1,639,619 | 4.38% | 118,277 | 0.32% | 27,996 | 1.71% | 927 | 0.78% |
| Brazil | 212,559,417 | 21,459,117 | 10.10% | 581,253 | 0.27% | 597,723 | 2.79% | 14,361 | 2.47% |
| Middle East | |||||||||
| Iran | 82,913,906 | 5,624,128 | 6.78% | 519,089 | 0.63% | 121,109 | 2.15% | 10,816 | 2.08% |
| Turkey | 83,809,754 | 7,181,500 | 8.57% | 702,867 | 0.84% | 64,240 | 0.89% | 6,403 | 0.91% |
| Other | |||||||||
| Australia | 25,203,198 | 111,392 | 0.44% | 49,769 | 0.20% | 1,334 | 1.20% | 295 | 0.59% |
| State | Population | Infected Current Count | Overall Infection Rate | Infected last 28 days | Infection Rate last 28 days | Total Deaths | Overall Death Rate | Deaths Last 28 Days | Death Rate Last 28 days |
| California | 39,512,223 | 4,731,043 | 11.97% | 230,023 | 0.58% | 69,246 | 1.46% | 2,859 | 1.24% |
| Texas | 28,995,881 | 4,083,305 | 14.08% | 382,281 | 1.32% | 65,785 | 1.61% | 7,513 | 1.97% |
| Florida | 21,477,737 | 3,620,106 | 16.86% | 267,655 | 1.25% | 52,299 | 1.44% | 8,975 | 3.35% |
| New York | 19,453,561 | 2,436,048 | 12.52% | 138,406 | 0.71% | 55,434 | 2.28% | 1,056 | 0.76% |
| Pennsylvania | 12,801,989 | 144,053 | 1.13% | 122,431 | 0.96% | 29,515 | 20.49% | 1,108 | 0.90% |
| Illinois | 12,671,821 | 1,630,540 | 12.87% | 92,540 | 0.73% | 27,450 | 1.68% | 950 | 1.03% |
| Ohio | 11,689,100 | 1,429,745 | 12.23% | 178,663 | 1.53% | 22,273 | 1.56% | 769 | 0.43% |
| Georgia | 10,617,423 | 1,582,063 | 14.90% | 148,349 | 1.40% | 26,242 | 1.66% | 3,122 | 2.10% |
| North Carolina | 10,488,084 | 1,400,217 | 13.35% | 162,824 | 1.55% | 16,605 | 1.19% | 1,897 | 1.17% |
| Michigan | 9,986,857 | 1,159,419 | 11.61% | 88,456 | 0.89% | 22,439 | 1.94% | 767 | 0.87% |
| New Jersey | 8,882,190 | 1,159,632 | 13.06% | 57,404 | 0.65% | 27,472 | 2.37% | 523 | 0.91% |
| Virginia | 8,535,519 | 869,328 | 10.18% | 91,161 | 1.07% | 12,806 | 1.47% | 907 | 0.99% |
| Washington | 7,614,893 | 660,910 | 8.68% | 85,420 | 1.12% | 7,765 | 1.17% | 1,074 | 1.26% |
| Arizona | 7,278,717 | 1,100,167 | 15.11% | 72,808 | 1.00% | 20,134 | 1.83% | 1,137 | 1.56% |
| Massachusetts | 6,949,503 | 813,599 | 11.71% | 48,015 | 0.69% | 18,647 | 2.29% | 361 | 0.75% |
| Tennessee | 6,833,174 | 1,231,820 | 18.03% | 160,695 | 2.35% | 15,198 | 1.23% | 1,576 | 0.98% |
| Indiana | 6,733,174 | 965,982 | 14.35% | 92,502 | 1.37% | 15,686 | 1.62% | 1,116 | 1.21% |
| Missouri | 6,137,428 | 830,103 | 13.53% | 53,826 | 0.88% | 12,011 | 1.45% | 877 | 1.63% |
| Maryland | 6,045,680 | 536,249 | 8.87% | 32,928 | 0.54% | 10,478 | 1.95% | 413 | 1.25% |
| Wisconsin | 5,822,434 | 814,187 | 13.98% | 72,952 | 1.25% | 8,901 | 1.09% | 380 | 0.52% |
| Colorado | 5,758,736 | 673,517 | 11.70% | 51,173 | 0.89% | 7,594 | 1.13% | 400 | 0.78% |
| Minnesota | 5,639,632 | 714,790 | 12.67% | 59,372 | 1.05% | 8,273 | 1.16% | 336 | 0.57% |
| South Carolina | 5,148,714 | 860,369 | 16.71% | 107,991 | 2.10% | 12,570 | 1.46% | 1,789 | 1.66% |
| Alabama | 4,903,185 | 800,692 | 16.33% | 80,520 | 1.64% | 14,470 | 1.81% | 2,055 | 2.55% |
| Louisiana | 4,648,794 | 741,906 | 15.96% | 45,006 | 0.97% | 13,988 | 1.89% | 1,281 | 2.85% |
| Kentucky | 4,467,794 | 695,474 | 15.57% | 182,985 | 4.10% | 8,804 | 1.27% | 959 | 0.52% |
| Oregon | 4,217,737 | 331,709 | 7.86% | 47,836 | 1.13% | 3,815 | 1.15% | 543 | 1.14% |
| Oklahoma | 3,956,971 | 615,217 | 15.55% | 54,367 | 1.37% | 8,949 | 1.45% | 948 | 1.74% |
| Connecticut | 3,565,287 | 391,006 | 10.97% | 15,931 | 0.45% | 8,650 | 2.21% | 256 | 1.61% |
| Utah | 3,205,958 | 510,209 | 15.91% | 40,780 | 1.27% | 2,943 | 0.58% | 285 | 0.70% |
| Iowa | 3,155,070 | 455,579 | 14.44% | 44,002 | 1.39% | 6,563 | 1.44% | 256 | 0.58% |
| Nevada | 3,080,156 | 422,329 | 13.71% | 27,734 | 0.90% | 7,166 | 1.70% | 583 | 2.10% |
| Arkansas | 3,017,825 | 497,576 | 16.49% | 34,853 | 1.15% | 7,724 | 1.55% | 686 | 1.97% |
| Mississippi | 2,976,149 | 489,216 | 16.44% | 42,353 | 1.42% | 9,646 | 1.97% | 1,106 | 2.61% |
| Kansas | 2,913,314 | 412,162 | 14.15% | 34,082 | 1.17% | 6,072 | 1.47% | 437 | 1.28% |
| New Mexico | 2,096,829 | 253,815 | 12.10% | 18,425 | 0.88% | 4,812 | 1.90% | 260 | 1.41% |
| Nebraska | 1,934,408 | 267,079 | 13.81% | 19,759 | 1.02% | 2,427 | 0.91% | 80 | 0.40% |
| West Virginia | 1,792,147 | 244,698 | 13.65% | 47,187 | 2.63% | 3,722 | 1.52% | 598 | 1.27% |
| Idaho | 1,787,147 | 260,012 | 14.55% | 34,468 | 1.93% | 2,964 | 1.14% | 585 | 1.70% |
| Hawaii | 1,415,872 | 79,851 | 5.64% | 13,073 | 0.92% | 801 | 1.00% | 187 | 1.43% |
| New Hampshire | 1,359,711 | 120,763 | 8.88% | 12,050 | 0.89% | 1,481 | 1.23% | 55 | 0.46% |
| Maine | 1,344,212 | 91,468 | 6.80% | 13,399 | 1.00% | 1,026 | 1.12% | 187 | 1.40% |
| Montana | 1,068,778 | 152,005 | 14.22% | 22,518 | 2.11% | 2,017 | 1.33% | 206 | 0.91% |
| Rhode Island | 1,059,361 | 172,719 | 16.30% | 8,977 | 0.85% | 2,838 | 1.64% | 65 | 0.72% |
| Delaware | 973,764 | 134,217 | 13.78% | 12,473 | 1.28% | 1,972 | 1.47% | 81 | 0.65% |
| South Dakota | 884,659 | 145,474 | 16.44% | 11,619 | 1.31% | 2,145 | 1.47% | 71 | 0.61% |
| North Dakota | 762,062 | 133,785 | 17.56% | 14,125 | 1.85% | 1,655 | 1.24% | 59 | 0.42% |
| Alaska | 731,545 | 115,703 | 15.82% | 25,061 | 3.43% | 578 | 0.50% | 130 | 0.52% |
| Vermont | 623,989 | 34,221 | 5.48% | 5,197 | 0.83% | 321 | 0.94% | 40 | 0.77% |
| Wyoming | 578,759 | 91,169 | 15.75% | 13,963 | 2.41% | 996 | 1.09% | 138 | 0.99% |
Weekly case counts across the U.S. are falling, down from over 1,000,000 per week in early September to about 750,000 per week as of October 3rd.
Deaths per day dropped from 11 per day to 7 per day. This coming week Utah will surpass 3,000 total deaths from Covid-19.
Cases from Utah Public Schools grew 1,799 to a total for the school year of 10,644 over the past week. These cases include students as well as staff.
The biggest surge was last winter. It started at the end of September and was very high from October 29 through January 31st. The more we are inside, the higher the transmission becomes. This will have some negative effects going forward. Nevertheless, I expect counts to continue the downward trend, but perhaps won't monotonically decline.
In Utah public schools the total rose to 12,240 an increase of 1,596 during the past week. Three schools are in the 'Red' category Buffalo Point Elementary (Davis District), Edgemont Elementary (Provo District), and Foothill School (Box Elder District).
Cases in Utah public schools now total 14063 up from 12,240 last week.
The death count in Utah is now over 3,100. Life flight helicopters seemed to have been very busy during this past week.
This week Utah's new case count also moved up for the second consecutive week going back over 10,000 cases for the week. The last time the count was this elevated was the week ending September 17.
This suggests that the colder weather is creating an environment for a better spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. If this increased case count does not turn out to be a fluke, we will be seeing higher numbers in the weeks ahead.
The saving grace is that the state reports 67% of those 12 and older are fully vaccinated. If you add to that 17% of Utahns that have contracted Covid-19 you get 84%. At that level, herd immunity should start to hinder the spread. Yes I know, some people are counted in both groups, making the actual number a bit lower.
Thus while we will likely get the highest number of cases from this "Delta Variant" spike in the coming weeks, we are NOT going back to the levels of last winter.