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The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
Report for November 2021
See the index to all available reports.
Publication Note:
This is the sixth report using a new monthly report on the SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic. Johns Hopkins University started to provide a new data elements which represent data for the most recent twenty-eight days. This data is ncluded in the data table. This time we compute the difference between the prior 28-day period [ November 7 - December 5 ] and the current 28-day period [ November 7 - December 5] to see how things are changing.

Also see Weekly data for Utah.

The weekly seven day average of new cases of Covid-19 in Utah.
The weekly seven day average of Covid-19 deaths in Utah.
Most Recent Month
***SARS-Cov-2 - Pandemic or Endemic***

The answer now seems to be both. It is a pandemic because it covers the whole earth. It is endemic becasue we can't seem to be able to get rid of it. As we have learned mutations of this virus continue to occur because the number of available people to infect is large.

*** Focus on Utah ***
The numbers for the latest week in Utah do indicate that there were missing cases for the week that ended the day after Thanksgiving. Yet the added numbers were not as big as expected. That indicates that the spread of the virus in Utah has gone down for the last couple of weeks, but not by a significant amount.

During the last 28-day period new infections in Utah decreased by 2% and the number of deaths decreased 4%. That ranked Utah 23rd among all states based on the spread of the virus. Utah's death rate remains 0.59%, still second best in the U.S. behind Alaska at 0.58%. The only other state with a death rate below 1% is Vermont (0.79%). Utah's health care system while over oaded is performing very well. That said, the death rate in Utah over the past 28 days have was 0.67% (only 10th best in the U.S.)

Because of a low vaccination rate (56%), the virus continues its spread with little resistance. At this point 18.7% of Utahns have contacted the virus, just 5 states have a higher infection rate. This indicates just how miserable Utah has been at limiting the spread of the virus. The state with the highest infection rate in North Dakota at 21.6%.

Assuming that vaccinations are durable forever and that having been infected offers lifetime immunity (neither of which I believe) Utah will reach 85% (herd immunity) infected or vaccinated by September 2023 (at the current rate of infection).  This also assumes that Utah's vaccination rate does not improve significantly.

*** Focus on the United States ****

The United States has done an exceptionally poor job at defeating this virus. The country has logged 49,052,458 cases amounting to 14.9% of the population. The U.K. is a bit worse at 15.5%, Germany is at 7.4%.

Using a broad brush, southern states where the speed was bad during the summer are now showing the least speed , while New England states and Great Lakes states are showing rather dramatic rises in the spread of the virus.

The states with the biggest increase in cases over the past 28-days include :

  1. Rhode Island up 128%
  2. Missouri up 102%
  3. Massachusetts up 96%
  4. Illinois up 94%
  5. Connecticut up 85%
The states with the biggest decrease:
  1. Hawaii down 75%
  2. Arizona down 68%
  3. Alabama down 56%
  4. Idaho down 55%
  5. Alaska down 52%

Utah was 27th best with a 2% decrease. Last month Michigan and Minnesota were notably getting worse. The rate of increase slowed this past month but the number of new infections was high. Michigan had the highest new case count at 207,670 cases while Minnesota had 111,923 new cases.

*** Focus on the rest of the World ***

Things are bad in Europe, particularly the United Kingdom and Germany. Their neighbors were also not doing well. France, Spain, and Italy also had elevated infection counts. Until recently Germany had done very well controlling the spread. Both countries had over 1 million new infections in the past 28 days. Canada has also shown a significant rise in cases. 

Japan is in a good spot right now with only 9,523 new cases in the past 28 days. India and Thailand showed significant drops, while Vietnam and Taiwan showed a huge increase. Taiwan has had minimal cases, so it was easy for it to show a large percentage jump. Their infection count is 0.07%, which is totally remarkable. Australia is enjoying the summer weather down under.

The Data for the week ending December 5, 2021 -Table renders properly with Edge Browser
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
ASIA                              
China 1,433,783,686 111,685 0.01% 1493 0.00% 1442 51 3.5% 4,849 4.34% 0 0.00% 0 0 0.0%
India 1,366,417,754 34,633,254 2.53% 268831 0.02% 402034 -133,203 -33.1% 470,900 1.36% 9,739 3.62% 10,202 -463 -4.5%
Japan 126,860,301 1,727,125 1.36% 3600 0.00% 9523 -5,923 -62.2% 18,360 1.06% 54 1.50% 379 -325 -85.8%
Philippines 108,116,615 2,834,775 2.62% 33673 0.03% 146171 -112,498 -77.0% 49,386 1.74% 4,991 14.82% 4,734 257 5.4%
Viet Nam 96,462,106 1,309,092 1.36% 333740 0.35% 124904 208,836 167.2% 26,260 2.01% 3,591 1.08% 2,028 1,563 77.1%
Thailand 69,625,582 2,141,241 3.08% 176498 0.25% 259972 -83,474 -32.1% 20,944 0.98% 1,306 0.74% 2,004 -698 -34.8%
S. Korea 51,225,308 473,034 0.92% 93099 0.18% 48416 44,683 92.3% 3,852 0.81% 885 0.95% 392 493 125.8%
Taiwan 23,773,876 16,652 0.07% 210 0.00% 151 59 39.1% 848 5.09% 1 0.48% 1 0 0.0%
Hong Kong NA                            
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
EUROPE                              
Russia 145,961,031 9,630,296 6.60% 984,750 0.67% 982,499 2,251 0.2% 275,824 2.86% 33,553 3.41% 29,468 4,085 13.9%
Germany 83,517,045 6,184,176 7.40% 1,398,317 1.67% 103,049 1,295,268 1256.9% 1,398,317 22.61% 6,514 0.47% 2,323 4,191 180.4%
U.K. 67,530,172 10,523,251 15.58% 1,162,883 1.72% 3,827 1,159,056 30286.3% 146,001 1.39% 3,827 0.33% 4,073 -246 -6.0%
France 65,129,728 7,978,985 12.25% 668,018 1.03% 158,958 509,060 320.2% 120,490 1.51% 1,634 0.24% 940 694 73.8%
Italy 60,550,075 5,094,072 8.41% 291,847 0.48% 104,187 187,660 180.1% 134,152 2.63% 1,787 0.61% 1,091 696 63.8%
Spain 46,692,858 5,202,958 11.14% 177,319 0.38% 52,020 125,299 240.9% 177,319 3.41% 655 0.37% 726 -71 -9.8%
Greece 10,473,455 962,695 9.19% 105,142 1.00% 182,074 -76,932 -42.3% 18,516 1.92% 2,273 2.16% 1,138 1,135 99.7%
Sweden 10,036,379 1,212,145 12.08% 35,051 0.35% 23,130 11,921 51.5% 15,170 1.25% 113 0.32% 152 -39 -25.7%
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
AMERICAS                              
U.S.A 329,064,917 49,062,458 14.91% 788,205 0.24% 1,158,137 -369,932 -31.9% 788,205 1.61% 32,769 4.16% 40,289 -7,520 -18.7%
Canada 37,411,047 1,813,304 4.85% 76,052 0.20% 71,940 4,112 5.7% 29,819 1.64% 627 0.82% 946 -319 -33.7%
Brazil 212,559,417 22,138,247 10.42% 263,923 0.12% 307,143 -43,220 -14.1% 615,570 2.78% 6,182 2.34% 8,559 -2,377 -27.8%
                               
Middle East                              
Iran 82,913,906 6,134,465 7.40% 151,096 0.18% 288,626 -137,530 -47.6% 130,200 2.12% 2,951 1.95% 4,803 -1,852 -38.6%
Turkey 83,809,754 8,883,730 10.60% 667,385 0.80% 790,193 -122,808 -15.5% 77,645 0.87% 5,718 0.86% 5,943 -225 -3.8%
                               
Other                              
Australia 25,203,198 217,842 0.86% 37,522 0.15% 49,769 -12,247 -24.6% 2,050 0.94% 235 0.63% 295 60 20.3%
                               
UNITED STATES                              
State Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
Michigan 9,986,857 1,517,325 15.19% 207,670 2.08% 120,965 86,705 72% 26,108 1.72% 2,133 1.03% 1,273 860 67.6%
New York 19,453,561 2,769,624 14.24% 184,259 0.95% 110,706 73,553 66% 57,725 2.08% 1,033 0.56% 987 46 4.7%
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 1,773,060 13.85% 166,507 1.30% 114,915 51,592 45% 33,859 1.91% 1,962 1.18% 1,990 -28 -1.4%
Ohio 11,689,100 1,725,669 14.76% 157,835 1.35% 105,902 51,933 49% 26,851 1.56% 661 0.42% 913 -252 -27.6%
California 39,512,223 5,107,717 12.93% 147,126 0.37% 164,797 -17,671 -11% 74,800 1.46% 2,289 1.56% 2,913 -624 -21.4%
Illinois 12,671,821 1,835,076 14.48% 122,090 0.96% 62,878 59,212 94% 28,968 1.58% 587 0.48% 724 -137 -18.9%
Minnesota 5,639,632 926,931 16.44% 111,923 1.98% 79,362 32,561 41% 9,740 1.05% 788 0.70% 544 244 44.9%
Wisconsin 5,822,434 997,688 17.14% 98,041 1.68% 64,590 33,451 52% 10,134 1.02% 592 0.60% 536 56 10.4%
Texas 28,995,881 4,351,338 15.01% 91,272 0.31% 130,847 -39,575 -30% 74,171 1.70% 2,255 2.47% 4,928 -2,673 -54.2%
Indiana 6,733,174 1,118,335 16.61% 82,276 1.22% 47,874 34,402 72% 82,276 7.36% 814 0.99% 916 -102 -11.1%
Colorado 5,758,736 838,587 14.56% 78,134 1.36% 71,988 6,146 9% 9,344 1.11% 937 1.20% 674 263 39.0%
Massachusetts 6,949,503 935,844 13.47% 74,364 1.07% 37,995 36,369 96% 19,489 2.08% 402 0.54% 341 61 17.9%
New Jersey 8,882,190 1,269,232 14.29% 62,689 0.71% 35,896 26,793 75% 28,452 2.24% 372 0.59% 1,273 -901 -70.8%
Missouri 6,137,428 926,450 15.10% 57,888 0.94% 28,726 29,162 102% 15,564 1.68% 2,859 4.94% 523 2,336 446.7%
North Carolina 10,488,084 1,544,544 14.73% 54,891 0.52% 64,591 -9,700 -15% 18,825 1.22% 574 1.05% 1,147 -573 -50.0%
Kentucky 4,467,794 794,816 17.79% 43,831 0.98% 40,621 3,210 8% 11,091 1.40% 1,152 2.63% 886 266 30.0%
Washington 7,614,893 780,835 10.25% 43,137 0.57% 59,703 -16,566 -28% 9,413 1.21% 615 1.43% 776 -161 -20.7%
Virginia 8,535,519 976,599 11.44% 43,057 0.50% 45,363 -2,306 -5% 14,753 1.51% 628 1.46% 1,050 -422 -40.2%
Utah 3,205,958 601,952 18.78% 41,384 1.29% 40,414 970 2% 3,564 0.59% 278 0.67% 292 -14 -4.8%
Iowa 3,155,070 534,623 16.94% 40,216 1.27% 33,055 7,161 22% 7,445 1.39% 376 0.93% 415 -39 -9.4%
Florida 21,477,737 3,741,058 17.42% 39,748 0.19% 56,020 -16,272 -29% 61,701 1.65% 1,367 3.44% 3,667 -2,300 -62.7%
New Mexico 2,096,829 320,520 15.29% 37,778 1.80% 23,799 13,979 59% 5,407 1.69% 294 0.78% 244 50 20.5%
Tennessee 6,833,174 1,323,222 19.36% 36,509 0.53% 37,380 -871 -2% 17,390 1.31% 890 2.44% 951 -61 -6.4%
Kansas 2,913,314 475,304 16.31% 34,167 1.17% 22,734 11,433 50% 6,734 1.42% 236 0.69% 368 -132 -35.9%
Georgia 10,617,423 1,668,875 15.72% 27,839 0.26% 38,369 -10,530 -27% 30,655 1.84% 1,172 4.21% 2,341 -1,169 -49.9%
Maryland 6,045,680 592,679 9.80% 27,324 0.45% 22,469 4,855 22% 11,255 1.90% 290 1.06% 382 -92 -24.1%
New Hampshire 1,359,711 165,574 12.18% 26,250 1.93% 15,116 11,134 74% 1,739 1.05% 142 0.54% 100 42 42.0%
Nebraska 1,934,408 313,935 16.23% 24,653 1.27% 17,732 6,921 39% 3,180 1.01% 179 0.73% 146 33 22.6%
West Virginia 1,792,147 300,660 16.78% 22,694 1.27% 25,066 -2,372 -9% 4,962 1.65% 444 1.96% 583 -139 -23.8%
Arizona 7,278,717 1,292,008 17.75% 22,593 0.31% 70,058 -47,465 -68% 22,593 1.75% 1,153 5.10% 1,058 95 9.0%
Oregon 4,217,737 394,569 9.35% 22,432 0.53% 31,024 -8,592 -28% 5,243 1.33% 681 3.04% 580 101 17.4%
Oklahoma 3,956,971 670,420 16.94% 22,211 0.56% 25,429 -3,218 -13% 11,999 1.79% 1,120 5.04% 1,666 -546 -32.8%
Connecticut 3,565,287 425,275 11.93% 20,306 0.57% 10,961 9,345 85% 8,925 2.10% 135 0.66% 123 12 9.8%
South Carolina 5,148,714 921,722 17.90% 19,393 0.38% 28,316 -8,923 -32% 14,272 1.55% 431 2.22% 912 -481 -52.7%
Arkansas 3,017,825 532,973 17.66% 16,994 0.56% 13,547 3,447 25% 8,721 1.64% 238 1.40% 652 -414 -63.5%
Nevada 3,080,156 459,957 14.93% 16,316 0.53% 17,234 -918 -5% 9,069 1.97% 357 2.19% 428 -71 -16.6%
Maine 1,344,212 123,858 9.21% 15,346 1.14% 12,824 2,522 20% 1,336 1.08% 129 0.84% 132 -3 -2.3%
Rhode Island 1,059,361 194,858 18.39% 13,779 1.30% 6,509 7,270 112% 2,941 1.51% 60 0.44% 27 33 122.2%
North Dakota 762,062 164,702 21.61% 12,895 1.69% 13,966 -1,071 -8% 1,953 1.19% 126 0.98% 151 -25 -16.6%
Idaho 1,787,147 308,869 17.28% 12,570 0.70% 27,845 -15,275 -55% 3,970 1.29% 324 2.58% 524 -200 -38.2%
Alabama 4,903,185 848,498 17.31% 12,397 0.25% 28,261 -15,864 -56% 16,185 1.91% 351 2.83% 977 -626 -64.1%
Montana 1,068,778 192,236 17.99% 11,784 1.10% 21,772 -9,988 -46% 2,739 1.42% 334 2.83% 336 -2 -0.6%
South Dakota 884,659 168,271 19.02% 11,276 1.27% 9,175 2,101 23% 2,357 1.40% 90 0.80% 96 -6 -6.3%
Louisiana 4,648,794 772,789 16.62% 10,940 0.24% 14,520 -3,580 -25% 14,826 1.92% 211 1.93% 442 -231 -52.3%
Delaware 973,764 155,922 16.01% 10,310 1.06% 8,324 1,986 24% 2,194 1.41% 75 0.73% 27 48 177.8%
Vermont 623,989 52,889 8.48% 10,287 1.65% 6,449 3,838 60% 417 0.79% 32 0.31% 49 -17 -34.7%
Alaska 731,545 151,504 20.71% 9,866 1.35% 20,770 -10,904 -52% 883 0.58% 142 1.44% 149 -7 -4.7%
Mississippi 2,976,149 515,504 17.32% 8,948 0.30% 12,285 -3,337 -27% 10,296 2.00% 148 1.65% 337 -189 -56.1%
Wyoming 578,759 111,812 19.32% 6,494 1.12% 11,015 -4,521 -41% 1,428 1.28% 185 2.85% 202 -17 -8.4%
Hawaii 1,415,872 88,147 6.23% 3,236 0.23% 13,073 -9,837 -75% 1,032 1.17% 82 2.53% 187 -105 -56.1%
November 12, 2021
Steady as we go. Aie, captain steady we go.

So goes SARS-CoV-2 infections in Utah.

The average daily count for the last 3 weeks is steady at around 1,550 cases per day. It feels like Covid-19 is on autopilot and still finding good rides.

We are approaching the level where 1 in every 5 Utahn's has been infected.

The death rate (one of the best in America) is steady at 0.59%, meaning among those infected about 1 in every 170 infected by SARS-CoV-2 dies.

While most of the United States fell dramatically between September and October, Utah did not. The low was 1280 cases the week ending October 15 and the high was 1572 cases the week of September 17.

We are approaching the level where 1 in every 5 Utahn's has been infected.

The death rate (one of the best in America) is steady at 0.59%, meaning among those infected about 1 in every 170 infected by SARS-CoV-2 dies.

Cases in Utah's public schools total 19,773. Up from 17,791 two weeks ago. That's about 1,000 per week, which is down a bit from the prior rate.

November 19, 2021
Here we go again! Parts of Europe looking bad. Some parts of the U.S. appear to be going into the fourth wave of Covid-19, while Utah has not finished the third wave.

We hit a new peak for our third wave this past week with 11,422 new Covid-19 cases for a daily average of 1632. Ok, that is just over 500 more cases than the prior week, but it is a new peak for our third wave.

As the air is again COLD and more people are staying indoors, we are suffering more cases. Apparently, an 85% vaccination rate is required to really drop the spread. Utah is just under 60% when considering only those five years and older.

The count of cases associated with our public schools is 22,083 up from 19,773 which includes a person in my own neighborhood.

With Thanksgiving coming up I think we need to expect a greater number of infections over the next few weeks, but nothing like we saw a year ago when only people in the vaccine trials were vaccinated.

If you are not vaccinated, please offer a scientifically valid reason why not. I was quite young when the polio vaccine was first available. I remember going to the drive-in movie to get a sugar cube with the vaccine in it. The line was long, but most people got in line for the vaccine.

November 26, 2021
So the numbers for this week are down, but I believe it is all due to delayed reporting due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

The new infection count fell from 11,422 to 9,201. The number of deaths fell from 81 to 59.

The new infection count fell from 11,422 to 9,201. The number of deaths fell from 81 to 59.

When we get next week's data I think we will see compensation for the missing data this week.