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The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
Report for October 2021
See the index to all available reports.
Publication Note:
This is the fourth report using a new monthly report on the SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic. Johns Hopkins University started to provide a new data elements which represent data for the most recent twenty-eight days. This  data is ncluded in the data table below as of October 3, 2021. Weekly data for Utah.
The weekly seven day average of new cases of Covid-19 in Utah.
The weekly seven day average of Covid-19 deaths in Utah.
Most Recent Month
*** Focus on Utah ***

Starting a week ago we began to see the first significant drop in new cases since the start of the surge related to the delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The drop this past week was not as large as expected, but still reinforces the expectation that the number of cases in Utah will continue to drop. The most recent 7-day death rate also declined slightly, but processing Covid-19 deaths in Utah can take weeks to process so this data does not always make sense. The total number of cases related to public schools rose to 8,845  from 7,314 the prior week.

During the month of September total number of cases in Utah exceeded 500,000. Almost 16% of the state's population has been infected with the virus.

*** Focus on the United States ****

The 10 states with the most cases (population adjusted) are (worst to best. Kentucky, Alaska, West Virginia, Wyoming, Tennessee, Montana, South Carolina, Idaho, North Dakota, Alabama, North Carolina.  Last month most of these cases were in the southeastern United States. Now only South Carolina and Alabama remain. The rest of the list are states further north.

The 10 states with the least cases (population adjusted) are (best to worst) are: Connecticut, Maryland, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York, Illinois, Vermont, Rhode Island, Missouri, New Mexico. This list includes many northeastern states, even though in most of these states their infection rates are a bit higher.

The United States had 1.1% of its population infected in the last 28 days.

A notable element in the data was the significant growth in deaths in most states across the country. This pushed the United States exceeded 700,000 deaths.

*** Focus on the rest of the World ***

Infection rates have come down in Asia, yet in India, Thailand, and the Philippines, 2% of the population were infected in the past 28 days. European countries were generally below 1% except for the U.K.

In Europe, the U.K., France, and Greece are somewhat better than the United States. Other European nations are doing much better.

The Data for the week ending October 3, 2021
Country Population Infected Current Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days
ASIA                  
China 1,433,783,686 108,528 0.01% 1342 0.00% 4,849 4.47% 1 0.07%
India 1,366,417,754 33,813,903 2.47% 825230 0.06% 448,817 1.33% 8,284 1.00%
Japan 126,860,301 1,705,916 1.34% 142482 0.11% 17,747 1.04% 1,391 0.98%
Philippenes 108,116,615 2,593,399 2.40% 519089 0.48% 38,768 1.49% 4,594 0.89%
Viet Nam 96,462,106 808,578 0.84% 292032 0.30% 19,715 2.44% 6,808 2.33%
Thailand 69,625,582 1,637,432 2.35% 361522 0.52% 17,014 1.04% 4,306 1.19%
S. Korea 51,225,308 318,105 0.62% 57701 0.11% 2,507 0.79% 186 0.32%
Taiwan 23,773,876 16,250 0.07% 231 0.00% 843 5.19% 6 2.60%
Hong Kong NA                
Country Population Infected Current Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days
EUROPE                  
Russia 145,961,031 7,474,850 5.12% 555,576 0.38% 206,179 2.76% 22,180 3.99%
Germany 83,517,045 4,256,909 5.10% 240,685 0.29% 93,792 2.20% 1,439 0.60%
U.K. 67,530,172 7,937,766 11.75% 934,096 1.38% 137,338 1.73% 3,810 0.41%
France 65,129,728 7,116,470 10.93% 205,550 0.32% 117,586 1.65% 2,226 1.08%
Italy 60,550,075 4,682,034 7.73% 112,941 0.19% 131,031 2.80% 1,532 1.36%
Spain 46,692,858 4,961,128 10.63% 83,373 0.18% 86,463 1.74% 1,668 2.00%
Greece 10,473,455 661,308 6.31% 61,499 0.59% 14,920 2.26% 1,046 1.70%
Sweden 10,036,379 1,153,655 11.49% 23,130 0.23% 14,868 1.29% 176 0.76%
Country Population Infected Current Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days
AMERICAS                  
U.S.A 329,064,917 43,669,745 13.27% 3,658,765 1.11% 700,982 1.61% 52,269 1.43%
Canada 37,411,047 1,639,619 4.38% 118,277 0.32% 27,996 1.71% 927 0.78%
Brazil 212,559,417 21,459,117 10.10% 581,253 0.27% 597,723 2.79% 14,361 2.47%
                   
Middle East                  
Iran 82,913,906 5,624,128 6.78% 519,089 0.63% 121,109 2.15% 10,816 2.08%
Turkey 83,809,754 7,181,500 8.57% 702,867 0.84% 64,240 0.89% 6,403 0.91%
                   
Other                  
Australia 25,203,198 111,392 0.44% 49,769 0.20% 1,334 1.20% 295 0.59%
                   
                   
State Population Infected Current Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days
California 39,512,223 4,731,043 11.97% 230,023 0.58% 69,246 1.46% 2,859 1.24%
Texas 28,995,881 4,083,305 14.08% 382,281 1.32% 65,785 1.61% 7,513 1.97%
Florida 21,477,737 3,620,106 16.86% 267,655 1.25% 52,299 1.44% 8,975 3.35%
New York 19,453,561 2,436,048 12.52% 138,406 0.71% 55,434 2.28% 1,056 0.76%
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 144,053 1.13% 122,431 0.96% 29,515 20.49% 1,108 0.90%
Illinois 12,671,821 1,630,540 12.87% 92,540 0.73% 27,450 1.68% 950 1.03%
Ohio 11,689,100 1,429,745 12.23% 178,663 1.53% 22,273 1.56% 769 0.43%
Georgia 10,617,423 1,582,063 14.90% 148,349 1.40% 26,242 1.66% 3,122 2.10%
North Carolina 10,488,084 1,400,217 13.35% 162,824 1.55% 16,605 1.19% 1,897 1.17%
Michigan 9,986,857 1,159,419 11.61% 88,456 0.89% 22,439 1.94% 767 0.87%
New Jersey 8,882,190 1,159,632 13.06% 57,404 0.65% 27,472 2.37% 523 0.91%
Virginia 8,535,519 869,328 10.18% 91,161 1.07% 12,806 1.47% 907 0.99%
Washington 7,614,893 660,910 8.68% 85,420 1.12% 7,765 1.17% 1,074 1.26%
Arizona 7,278,717 1,100,167 15.11% 72,808 1.00% 20,134 1.83% 1,137 1.56%
Massachusetts 6,949,503 813,599 11.71% 48,015 0.69% 18,647 2.29% 361 0.75%
Tennessee 6,833,174 1,231,820 18.03% 160,695 2.35% 15,198 1.23% 1,576 0.98%
Indiana 6,733,174 965,982 14.35% 92,502 1.37% 15,686 1.62% 1,116 1.21%
Missouri 6,137,428 830,103 13.53% 53,826 0.88% 12,011 1.45% 877 1.63%
Maryland 6,045,680 536,249 8.87% 32,928 0.54% 10,478 1.95% 413 1.25%
Wisconsin 5,822,434 814,187 13.98% 72,952 1.25% 8,901 1.09% 380 0.52%
Colorado 5,758,736 673,517 11.70% 51,173 0.89% 7,594 1.13% 400 0.78%
Minnesota 5,639,632 714,790 12.67% 59,372 1.05% 8,273 1.16% 336 0.57%
South Carolina 5,148,714 860,369 16.71% 107,991 2.10% 12,570 1.46% 1,789 1.66%
Alabama 4,903,185 800,692 16.33% 80,520 1.64% 14,470 1.81% 2,055 2.55%
Louisiana 4,648,794 741,906 15.96% 45,006 0.97% 13,988 1.89% 1,281 2.85%
Kentucky 4,467,794 695,474 15.57% 182,985 4.10% 8,804 1.27% 959 0.52%
Oregon 4,217,737 331,709 7.86% 47,836 1.13% 3,815 1.15% 543 1.14%
Oklahoma 3,956,971 615,217 15.55% 54,367 1.37% 8,949 1.45% 948 1.74%
Connecticut 3,565,287 391,006 10.97% 15,931 0.45% 8,650 2.21% 256 1.61%
Utah 3,205,958 510,209 15.91% 40,780 1.27% 2,943 0.58% 285 0.70%
Iowa 3,155,070 455,579 14.44% 44,002 1.39% 6,563 1.44% 256 0.58%
Nevada 3,080,156 422,329 13.71% 27,734 0.90% 7,166 1.70% 583 2.10%
Arkansas 3,017,825 497,576 16.49% 34,853 1.15% 7,724 1.55% 686 1.97%
Mississippi 2,976,149 489,216 16.44% 42,353 1.42% 9,646 1.97% 1,106 2.61%
Kansas 2,913,314 412,162 14.15% 34,082 1.17% 6,072 1.47% 437 1.28%
New Mexico 2,096,829 253,815 12.10% 18,425 0.88% 4,812 1.90% 260 1.41%
Nebraska 1,934,408 267,079 13.81% 19,759 1.02% 2,427 0.91% 80 0.40%
West Virginia 1,792,147 244,698 13.65% 47,187 2.63% 3,722 1.52% 598 1.27%
Idaho 1,787,147 260,012 14.55% 34,468 1.93% 2,964 1.14% 585 1.70%
Hawaii 1,415,872 79,851 5.64% 13,073 0.92% 801 1.00% 187 1.43%
New Hampshire 1,359,711 120,763 8.88% 12,050 0.89% 1,481 1.23% 55 0.46%
Maine 1,344,212 91,468 6.80% 13,399 1.00% 1,026 1.12% 187 1.40%
Montana 1,068,778 152,005 14.22% 22,518 2.11% 2,017 1.33% 206 0.91%
Rhode Island 1,059,361 172,719 16.30% 8,977 0.85% 2,838 1.64% 65 0.72%
Delaware 973,764 134,217 13.78% 12,473 1.28% 1,972 1.47% 81 0.65%
South Dakota 884,659 145,474 16.44% 11,619 1.31% 2,145 1.47% 71 0.61%
North Dakota 762,062 133,785 17.56% 14,125 1.85% 1,655 1.24% 59 0.42%
Alaska 731,545 115,703 15.82% 25,061 3.43% 578 0.50% 130 0.52%
Vermont 623,989 34,221 5.48% 5,197 0.83% 321 0.94% 40 0.77%
Wyoming 578,759 91,169 15.75% 13,963 2.41% 996 1.09% 138 0.99%
October 8, 2021

Sadly the number of cases in Utah this last week rose to 1,426 cases per day from 1,359 per day the week before. The total for the week was 9,981 cases.

Weekly case counts across the U.S. are falling, down from over 1,000,000 per week in early September to about 750,000 per week as of October 3rd.

Deaths per day dropped from 11 per day to 7 per day. This coming week Utah will surpass 3,000 total deaths from Covid-19.

Cases from Utah Public Schools grew 1,799 to a total for the school year of 10,644 over the past week. These cases include students as well as staff.

October 15, 2021

The number of new infections this week declined from 1456 per day to 1280 per day. This is the biggest drop since the most recent peak of 1572 per day on September 17. Hopefully, the number of infections will continue to drop even as the temperatures continue to drop.

The biggest surge was last winter. It started at the end of September and was very high from October 29 through January 31st. The more we are inside, the higher the transmission becomes. This will have some negative effects going forward. Nevertheless, I expect counts to continue the downward trend, but perhaps won't monotonically decline.

In Utah public schools the total rose to 12,240 an increase of 1,596 during the past week. Three schools are in the 'Red' category Buffalo Point Elementary (Davis District), Edgemont Elementary (Provo District), and Foothill School (Box Elder District).