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The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
As expected the number of infections last week dropped rapidly. The 7-day average is now 1795, the best since early November.
Deaths always trail infections and I think we are still finishing off the post holiday spike. This will improve going forward.
Most Recent Week
January 17, 2021
  • The countries with the most Novel Corona Virus infections (raw numbers not population adjusted)
    1. United States 25.1 million up 1,206,000 down significantly from 1,570,000.
    2. India 10.65 million up 96,000
    3. Brazil 8.81 million up 360,000
    4. Russia 3.68 million up 148,000
    5. United Kingdom 3.6 million up 252,000
    6. France 3.1 million up 165,000
    7. Turkey 2.42 million 42,000
    8. Italy 2.46 million up 85,000;
    9. Spain 2.5 million up 247,000
    10. Germany 2.15 million up 100,000
  • In Asia, Japan and Thailand both improved from the prior week.
  • In Europe, things are about the same as last week. The United Kingdom stands out as the country suffering the most, followed by Spain.
  • The U.S. averaged 172,000 cases per day down from 224,000 new cases per day the prior week. Deaths were high, but they ALWAYS lag infections.
  • The U.S. infection rate is 7.62%. If there is a country with a higher rate, that country is not one that I follow.
  • Meanwhile, the U.S. death rate stands at 1.86% a big jumpup from the prior weeks at 1.68%. It is the lowest of all countries outside Asia (and New Zealand) that I follow .
  • The states showing the most rapid increases in the past week (7% or more of all cases in the past week) New York, Virginia, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Maine, and Vermont
The best and worst states in the U.S.:
Infection Rates:
  • States with infection rates over 10%: North Dakota (12.4%), South Dakota (11.7%), Utah (10.4%), Rhode Island (10.3%), Tennessee(10.3%)
  • States with infection rates between 8 and 10 percent: Iowa(9.9), Wisconsin(9.9), Arizona (9.8%), Nebraska(9.7), Arkansas (9.4%), Mississippi (8.9%), Nevada (8.8%), Illinois(8.7%), Montana (8.6%). Nine states in all. Two moved over 10% last week.
  • States with infection rates under 4%: Washington (3.9%), Oregon (3.2%), Maine (2.7%) Hawaii (1.8%), Vermont(1.77%)
Death Rates:
  • States with death rates over 2%: New York (3.1%), New Jersey (3.2%), Massachusetts(2.8%), Pennsylvania (2.5%), Michegan (2.5%), Maryland (2.0%), Louisiana (2.2%), Mississppi (2.2%)
  • States with death rates under 1%: Utah (0.48%), Alaska (0.49%), Oklahoma (0.88%), Kentucky (0.99).
The Data for This Week:
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected Week % of total cases this week Per Day Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate
ASIA                        
China 1,433,783,686 96,690 96,127 563 1% 80 0.01% 4,792 4,784 8 4.96%  
India 1,366,417,754 10,450,284 10,323,965 126,319 1% 18,046 0.76% 150,999 149,435 1,564 1.44%  
Japan 126,860,301 282,737 245,254 37,483 13% 5,355 0.22% 3,850 3,429 421 1.36%  
Philippenes 108,116,615 485,797 477,807 7,990 2% 1,141 0.45% 9,405 9,257 148 1.94%  
Viet Nam 96,462,106 1,513 1,494 19 1% 3 0.00% 35 35 0 2.31%  
Thailand 69,625,582 10,053 7,694 2,359 23% 337 0.01% 67 64 3 0.67%  
S. Korea 51,225,308 68,664 63,244 5,420 8% 774 0.13% 1,125 962 163 1.64%  
Taiwan 23,773,876 828 812 16 2% 2 0.00% 7 7 0 0.85%  
Hong Kong 7,436,154 9,211 8,964 247 3% 35 0.12% 157 150 7 1.70%  
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected Week % of total cases this week Per Day Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate  
EUROPE                        
Russia 145,961,031 3,366,715 3,203,743 162972 4.84% 23281.71429 2.31% 60,963 34,596 26,367 1.81%  
Germany 83,517,045 1,928,462 1,783,896 144,566 7% 20,652 2.31% 40,741 34,596 6,145 2.11%  
U.K. 67,530,172 3,026,342 2,662,636 363,706 12% 51,958 4.48% 81,567 75,137 6,430 2.70%  
France 65,129,728 2,824,920 2,712,975 111,945 4% 15,992 4.34% 67,885 65,164 2,721 2.40%  
Italy 60,550,075 2,276,491 2,455,446 -178,955 -8% -25,565 3.76% 78,755 75,332 3,423 3.46%  
Spain 46,692,858 2,050,360 1,928,265 122,095 6% 17,442 4.39% 51,847 50,837 1,010 2.53%  
Greece 10,473,455 144,293 140,009 4,284 3% 612 1.38% 5263 4957 306 3.65%  
Sweden 10,036,379 489,471 437,379 52,092 11% 7,442 4.88% 9433 8727 706 1.93%  
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected Week % of total cases this week Per Day Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate  
AMERICAS                        
U.S.A 329,064,917 22,300,696 21,585,630 715,066 3% 102,152 6.78% 373,699 351,302 22,397 1.68%  
Argentina 44,780,677 1,714,409 1,634,834 79,575 5% 11,368 3.83% 44417 43375 1,042 2.59%  
Canada 37,411,047 657,323 602,060 55,263 8% 7,895 1.76% 16945 15880 1,065 2.58%  
Brazil 212,559,417 8,075,998 7,716,405 359,593 4% 51,370 3.80% 202631 196725 5,906 2.51%  
                         
OTHER                        
Iran 82,913,906 1,280,438 1,243,434 37,004 3% 5,286 1.54% 56,171 55,540 631 4.39%  
Turkey 83,809,754 2,326,256 2,241,912 84,344 4% 12,049 2.78% 22,807 21,488 1,319 0.98%  
Australia 25,203,198 28,595 28,483 112 0% 16 0.11% 909 909 0 3.18%  
New Zeland 4,886,000 2,219 2,144 75 3% 11 0.05% 25 25 0 1.13%  
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected Week % of total cases this week Per Day Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate  
California 39,512,223 2,697,277 2,423,055 274,222 10% 39,175 6.83% 29,718 26,553 3,165 1.10%  
Texas 28,995,881 1,955,892 1,807,255 148,637 8% 21,234 6.75% 30,313 28,424 1,889 1.55%  
Florida 21,477,737 1,477,010 1,365,436 111,574 8% 15,939 6.88% 22,912 21,987 925 1.55%  
New York 19,453,561 1,135,592 1,023,897 111,695 10% 15,956 5.84% 39,632 38,415 1,217 3.49%  
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 723,865 664,913 58,952 8% 8,422 5.65% 17,717 16,230 1,487 2.45%  
Illinois 12,671,821 1,028,750 979,821 48,929 5% 6,990 8.12% 19,293 18,322 971 1.88%  
Ohio 11,689,100 777,065 721,481 55,584 7% 7,941 6.65% 9,627 9,076 551 1.24%  
Georgia 10,617,423 757,045 690,900 66,145 9% 9,449 7.13% 11,458 10,964 494 1.51%  
North Carolina 10,488,084 623,188 564,924 58,264 9% 8,323 5.94% 7,567 6,910 657 1.21%  
Michigan 9,986,857 562,553 538,121 24,432 4% 3,490 5.63% 14,145 13,306 839 2.51%  
New Jersey 8,882,190 528,054 492,042 36,012 7% 5,145 5.95% 19,854 19,208 646 3.76%  
Virginia 8,535,519 398,856 363,765 35,091 9% 5,013 4.67% 5,383 5,124 259 1.35%  
Washington 7,614,893 271,595 246,752 24,843 9% 3,549 3.57% 3698 3461 237 1.36%  
Arizona 7,278,717 618,546 556,384 62,162 10% 8,880 8.50% 10141 9061 1,080 1.64%  
Massachusetts 6,949,503 427,135 384,181 42,954 10% 6,136 6.15% 13,151 12,502 649 3.08%  
Tennessee 6,833,174 653,869 608,297 45,572 7% 6,510 9.57% 7,785 7,025 760 1.19%  
Indiana 6,733,174 563,653 526,071 37,582 7% 5,369 8.37% 8,985 8,476 509 1.59%  
Missouri 6,137,428 434,703 412,748 21,955 5% 3,136 7.08% 6133 5736 397 1.41%  
Maryland 6,045,680 306,674 285,319 21,355 7% 3,051 5.07% 6,272 5,994 278 2.05%  
Wisconsin 5,822,434 550,260 526,245 24,015 4% 3,431 9.45% 5,570 5,261 309 1.01%  
Colorado 5,758,736 358,947 341,250 17,697 5% 2,528 6.23% 5190 4912 278 1.45%  
Minnesota 5,639,632 436,572 420,544 16,028 4% 2,290 7.74% 5775 5489 286 1.32%  
South Carolina 5,148,714 354,525 321,699 32,826 9% 4,689 6.89% 5811 5469 342 1.64%  
Alabama 4,903,185 401,900 371,934 29,966 7% 4,281 7.59% 5334 4873 461 1.33%  
Louisiana 4,648,794 346,829 321,058 25,771 7% 3,682 7.46% 7,873 7,537 336 2.27%  
Kentucky 4,467,794 300,397 276,825 23,572 8% 3,367 6.72% 2,876 2,723 153 0.96%  
Oregon 4,217,737 124,476 116,348 8,128 7% 1,161 2.95% 1603 1492 111 1.29%  
Oklahoma 3,956,971 331,362 304,072 27,290 8% 3,899 8.37% 2761 2547 214 0.83%  
Connecticut 3,565,287 205,994 190,120 15,874 8% 2,268 5.78% 6324 6099 225 3.07%  
Utah 3,205,958 305,999 283,473 22,526 7% 3,218 9.54% 1392 1301 91 0.45%  
Iowa 3,155,070 296,480 284,378 12,102 4% 1,729 9.40% 4138 3946 192 1.40%  
Nevada 3,080,156 248,568 231,614 16,954 7% 2,422 8.07% 3467 3180 287 1.39%  
Arkansas 3,017,825 251,746 231,442 20,304 8% 2,901 8.34% 4010 3729 281 1.59%  
Mississippi 2,976,149 239,082 222,061 17,021 7% 2,432 8.03% 4871 4871 0 2.04%  
Kansas 2,913,314 243,648 230,314 13,334 5% 1,905 8.36% 3141 2872 269 1.29%  
New Mexico 2,096,829 154,954 146,394 8,560 6% 1,223 7.39% 2732 2551 181 1.76%  
Nebraska 1,934,408 175,620 168,262 7,358 4% 1,051 9.08% 1737 1669 68 0.99%  
West Virginia 1,792,147 101,212 91,058 10,154 10% 1,451 5.65% 1582 1376 206 1.56%  
Idaho 1,787,147 149,235 142,199 7,036 5% 1,005 8.35% 1528 1448 80 1.02%  
Hawaii 1,415,872 23,408 22,303 1,105 5% 158 1.65% 308 289 19 1.32%  
New Hampshire 1,359,711 50,871 45,206 5,665 11% 809 3.74% 862 769 93 1.69%  
Maine 1,344,212 29,298 25,592 3,706 13% 529 2.18% 432 359 73 1.47%  
Montana 1,068,778 86,324 82,381 3,943 5% 563 8.08% 1056 972 84 1.22%  
Rhode Island 1,059,361 97,614 87,949 9,665 10% 1,381 9.21% 1916 1777 139 1.96%  
Delaware 973,764 59,484 59,484 0 0% 0 6.11% 930 930 0 1.56%  
South Dakota 884,659 103,318 100,532 2,786 3% 398 11.68% 1585 1513 72 1.53%  
North Dakota 762,062 94,716 93,041 1,675 2% 239 12.43% 1352 1310 42 1.43%  
Alaska 731,545 50,218 48,098 2,120 4% 303 6.86% 224 215 9 0.45%  
Vermont 623,989 8,967 7,793 1,174 13% 168 1.44% 156 140 16 1.74%  
Wyoming 578,759 46,832 44,875 1,957 4% 280 8.09% 489 438 51 1.04%  
Prior Data - Select from the list below
Highlights of the Pandemic
  • Most outrageous statement by any U.S. Politician: Governor Newsom of California said 56% of his state would be infected. That would be about 22 million people. Three weeks after his statement, the state has 0.01% of its citizens infected I can promise you that will not happen. So far California is a shining example to the nation with a 0.04% infection rate (April 7).
  • On April 7 Dr. anthony Fauci, the leading epidimeologist for the U.S. government has complemented Utah effort at social distancing,even though our infection rate is at 0.06%, somewhat above California's rate.
  • I was wrong that the virus does not like hot weater based on many tropical counties having small case counts. As it turns out they were just doing a great job limiting infections
  • Much of the U.S. opened too early at the end of May, thinking the worst was over, at that point too many people assumed it was all over and everything could return to normal. They turned out to be "dead" wrong.
    • Early on modelers at the University of Washington predicted 10,000 deaths for the State of Utah. Three weeks later they reduced that prediction to 2,000. As of August 16, 2020, Utah's actual death count was just 363.
    • As of August 23, 2020, I believe we will have an approved vaccine between November 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021. Pfizer with partner Biontech and Moderna are presently leading the race.  
    ©2021 Reed B. Haslam All rights reserved
    Pandemic - The SARS-Cov 2 Virus