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The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
In Utah, are now down to where we were in mid-October. The drop in infections in the past 3 weeks has been dramatic.
The rapid fall is likely over. Where we go from here is dependent on our collective behavior and future impacts from the mutated viruses.
Deaths have dropped, but are still at a high level. They most likely continue to drop at least for a couple of weeks.
Most Recent Week
January 31, 2021
  • The countries with the most Novel Corona Virus infections (raw numbers not population adjusted)
    1. United States 26.1 million up 1,070,000 but down from 1,206,000 the prior week.
    2. India 10.75 million up 91,000, little changed.
    3. Brazil 9.2 million up 360,000 little changed
    4. United Kingdom 3.83 million up170,00 down from 252,000
    5. Russia 3.8 million up 129,000 down slightly
    6. France 3.25 million up 158,000 little changed
    7. Spain 2.74 million up 243,000 little changed
    8. Italy 2.55 million up 86,000 little changed
    9. Turkey 2.47 million 47,000 up slightly
    10. Germany 2.25 million up 77,000 down 20,000
  • In Asia, Japan remained elevated and Thailand skyrocketed in the midst of its worst outbreak.
  • In Europe, things are about the same as last week. The United Kingdom improved while Spain spiked up yet again.
  • The U.S. averaged 158,000 cases per day down from 172,000 new cases per day the prior week. Deaths were high, but they ALWAYS lag infections.
  • The U.S. infection rate is 7.95%. If there is a country with a higher rate, that country is not one that I follow.
  • Meanwhile, the U.S. death rate stands at 1.89% It is the lowest of all countries outside Asia (and New Zealand) that I follow .
  • The states showing the most rapid increases in the past week (6% or more of all cases in the past week) New York, Virginia, Arizona, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Maine, and Vermont. The only change this week to this list is the addition of Arizona.
The best and worst states in the U.S.:
Infection Rates:
  • States with infection rates over 10%: North Dakota (12.8%), South Dakota (12.2%), Utah (10.8%), Rhode Island (10.8%), Tennessee(10.6%). Newly added  Arizona (10.4%), Wisconsin(10.2%), Iowa(10.1).
  • States with infection rates between 8 and 10 percent: Nebraska(9.9), Arkansas (9.7%), Mississippi (9.3%), Nevada (9.0%), Illinois(8.9%), Montana (8.8%).
  • States with infection rates under 5%: New Hampshire(4.8), Washington 4.1, Oregon (3.4%), Maine (2.9%) Vermont(1.9%), Hawaii (1.8%)
Death Rates:
  • States with death rates over 2%: New York (3.1%), New Jersey (3.1%), Michegan (3.0%), Massachusetts(2.8%), Pennsylvania (2.5%), Maryland (2.0%), Louisiana (2.2%), Mississppi (2.2%)
  • States with death rates under 1%: Utah (0.48%), Alaska (0.48%), Oklahoma (0.91%). Kentucky was dropped from this list.
The Data for This Week:
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected Week % of total cases this week Per Day Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate  
ASIA                        
China 1,433,783,686 100,022 99,128 894 1% 128 0.01% 4,817 4,804 13 4.82%  
India 1,366,417,754 10,746,183 10,654,533 91,650 1% 13,093 0.79% 154,274 153,339 935 1.44%  
Japan 126,860,301 390,153 365,881 24,272 6% 3,467 0.31% 5,753 5,119 634 1.47%  
Philippenes 108,116,615 525,618 513,619 11,999 2% 1,714 0.49% 10,749 10,242 507 2.05%  
Viet Nam 96,462,106 1,817 1,548 269 15% 38 0.00% 35 35 0 1.93%  
Thailand 69,625,582 18,782 13,500 5,282 28% 755 0.03% 77 73 4 0.41%  
S. Korea 51,225,308 78,205 75,084 3,121 4% 446 0.15% 1,420 1,349 71 1.82%  
Taiwan 23,773,876 911 889 22 2% 3 0.00% 8 7 1 0.88%  
Hong Kong 7,436,154 10,452 10,085 367 4% 52 0.14% 181 169 12 1.73%  
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected Week % of total cases this week Per Day Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate  
EUROPE                        
Russia 145,961,031 3,808,348 3,679,254 129094 3% 18442 2.61% 72,029 68,397 3,632 1.89%  
Germany 83,517,045 2,225,658 2,147,726 77,932 4% 11,133 2.66% 57,163 52,168 4,995 2.57%  
U.K. 67,530,172 3,828,183 3,657,826 170,357 4% 24,337 5.67% 98,128 98,128 0 2.56%  
France 65,129,728 3,255,920 3,097,017 158,903 5% 22,700 5.00% 76,201 73,019 3,182 2.34%  
Italy 60,550,075 2,553,032 2,466,813 86,219 3% 12,317 4.22% 88,516 85,461 3,055 3.47%  
Spain 46,692,858 2,743,119 2,499,560 243,559 9% 34,794 5.87% 58,319 55,441 2,878 2.13%  
Greece 10,473,455 156,957 151,980 4,977 3% 711 1.50% 5796 5646 150 3.69%  
Sweden 10,036,379 566,957 547,166 19,791 3% 2,827 5.65% 11591 11005 586 2.04%  
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected Week % of total cases this week Per Day Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate  
AMERICAS                        
U.S.A 329,064,917 26,147,162 25,077,155 1,070,007 4% 152,858 7.95% 440,843 418,494 22,349 1.69%  
Argentina 44,780,677 1,922,264 1,862,192 60,072 3% 8,582 4.29% 47931 45295 2,636 2.49%  
Canada 37,411,047 781,079 750,037 31,042 4% 4,435 2.09% 19981 18005 1,976 2.56%  
Brazil 212,559,417 9,176,975 8,816,254 360,721 4% 51,532 4.32% 223945 216445 7,500 2.44%  
                         
OTHER                        
Iran 82,913,906 1,417,999 1,372,977 45,022 3% 6,432 1.71% 57,959 57,383 576 4.09%  
Turkey 83,809,754 2,477,463 2,429,605 47,858 2% 6,837 2.96% 25,993 25,073 920 1.05%  
Australia 25,203,198 28,811 28,766 45 0% 6 0.11% 909 909 0 3.16%  
New Zeland 4,886,000 2,304 2,283 21 1% 3 0.05% 25 25 0 1.09%  
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected Week % of total cases this week Per Day Infection Rate Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week Death Rate  
California 39,512,223 3,312,781 3,154,395 158,386 5% 22,627 8.38% 40,746 36,394 4,352 1.23%  
Texas 28,995,881 2,367,518 2,243,139 124,379 5% 17,768 8.17% 37,072 34,725 2,347 1.57%  
Florida 21,477,737 1,721,377 1,649,449 71,928 4% 10,275 8.01% 26,479 25,293 1,186 1.54%  
New York 19,453,561 1,419,907 1,335,695 84,212 6% 12,030 7.30% 43,634 42,325 1,309 3.07%  
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 846,046 807,122 38,924 5% 5,561 6.61% 21,617 20,532 1,085 2.56%  
Illinois 12,671,821 1,123,873 1,101,819 22,054 2% 3,151 8.87% 21,213 20,680 533 1.89%  
Ohio 11,689,100 895,792 864,322 31,470 4% 4,496 7.66% 11,175 10,711 464 1.25%  
Georgia 10,617,423 905,858 862,158 43,700 5% 6,243 8.53% 14,196 13,246 950 1.57%  
North Carolina 10,488,084 757,526 718,812 38,714 5% 5,531 7.22% 9,335 8,695 640 1.23%  
Michigan 9,986,857 610,138 596,746 13,392 2% 1,913 6.11% 15,525 15,181 344 2.54%  
New Jersey 8,882,190 696,829 662,808 34,021 5% 4,860 7.85% 21,484 20,951 533 3.08%  
Virginia 8,535,519 502,221 472,447 29,774 6% 4,253 5.88% 6,449 6,078 371 1.28%  
Washington 7,614,893 311,592 300,198 11,394 4% 1,628 4.09% 4285 4114 171 1.38%  
Arizona 7,278,717 758,404 715,357 43,047 6% 6,150 10.42% 13120 12170 950 1.73%  
Massachusetts 6,949,503 521,360 496,093 25,267 5% 3,610 7.50% 14,531 14,064 467 2.79%  
Tennessee 6,833,174 724,742 705,876 18,866 3% 2,695 10.61% 9,574 8,859 715 1.32%  
Indiana 6,733,174 626,682 611,039 15,643 2% 2,235 9.31% 9,974 9,716 258 1.59%  
Missouri 6,137,428 473,936 461,912 12,024 3% 1,718 7.72% 7040 6781 259 1.49%  
Maryland 6,045,680 354,473 341,452 13,021 4% 1,860 5.86% 7,127 6,865 262 2.01%  
Wisconsin 5,822,434 592,140 580,003 12,137 2% 1,734 10.17% 6,190 6,190 0 1.05%  
Colorado 5,758,736 395,019 384,966 10,053 3% 1,436 6.86% 5620 5482 138 1.42%  
Minnesota 5,639,632 461,807 454,989 6,818 1% 974 8.19% 6268 6163 105 1.36%  
South Carolina 5,148,714 443,386 418,325 25,061 6% 3,580 8.61% 7042 6547 495 1.59%  
Alabama 4,903,185 459,939 441,170 18,769 4% 2,681 9.00% 7688 6660 1,028 1.67%  
Louisiana 4,648,794 400,626 383,862 16,764 4% 2,395 8.62% 8,859 8,565 294 2.21%  
Kentucky 4,467,794 361,115 344,567 16,548 5% 2,364 8.08% 3,714 3,421 293 1.03%  
Oregon 4,217,737 142,116 137,600 4,516 3% 645 3.37% 1957 1877 80 1.38%  
Oklahoma 3,956,971 389,742 373,090 16,652 4% 2,379 9.85% 3547 3279 268 0.91%  
Connecticut 3,565,287 250,023 237,815 12,208 5% 1,744 7.01% 7046 6819 227 2.82%  
Utah 3,205,958 346,624 334,889 11,735 3% 1,676 10.81% 1665 1595 70 0.48%  
Iowa 3,155,070 319,245 312,885 6,360 2% 909 10.12% 4487 4487 0 1.41%  
Nevada 3,080,156 278,308 270,907 7,401 3% 1,057 9.04% 4270 4026 244 1.53%  
Arkansas 3,017,825 294,387 282,995 11,392 4% 1,627 9.75% 4838 4563 275 1.64%  
Mississippi 2,976,149 275,001 264,219 10,782 4% 1,540 9.24% 6045 5772 273 2.20%  
Kansas 2,913,314 276,956 268,908 8,048 3% 1,150 9.51% 3767 3587 180 1.36%  
New Mexico 2,096,829 173,539 168,579 4,960 3% 709 8.28% 3265 3115 150 1.88%  
Nebraska 1,934,408 190,713 186,854 3,859 2% 551 9.86% 1920 1879 41 1.01%  
West Virginia 1,792,147 121,001 115,307 5,694 5% 813 6.75% 2024 1895 129 1.67%  
Idaho 1,787,147 162,683 159,325 3,358 2% 480 9.10% 1725 1668 57 1.06%  
Hawaii 1,415,872 25,994 25,236 758 3% 108 1.84% 406 335 71 1.56%  
New Hampshire 1,359,711 65,362 61,576 3,786 6% 541 4.81% 1042 981 61 1.59%  
Maine 1,344,212 39,324 36,598 2,726 7% 389 2.93% 590 544 46 1.50%  
Montana 1,068,778 93,949 91,562 2,387 3% 341 8.79% 1233 1151 82 1.31%  
Rhode Island 1,059,361 114,438 109,735 4,703 4% 672 10.80% 2154 2083 71 1.88%  
Delaware 973,764 78,071 74,575 3,496 4% 499 8.02% 1090 1041 49 1.40%  
South Dakota 884,659 108,250 107,148 1,102 1% 157 12.24% 1778 1705 73 1.64%  
North Dakota 762,062 97,629 96,817 812 1% 116 12.81% 1447 1436 11 1.48%  
Alaska 731,545 54,351 53,315 1,036 2% 148 7.43% 262 259 3 0.48%  
Vermont 623,989 11,965 11,033 932 8% 133 1.92% 174 170 4 1.45%  
Wyoming 578,759 51,912 50,898 1,014 2% 145 8.97% 596 571 25 1.15%  
    26,006,670   1,066,083   152,298   437,285   91,842    
                         
Prior Data - Select from the list below
Highlights of the Pandemic
  • Most outrageous statement by any U.S. Politician: Governor Newsom of California said 56% of his state would be infected. That would be about 22 million people. Three weeks after his statement, the state has 0.01% of its citizens infected I can promise you that will not happen. So far California is a shining example to the nation with a 0.04% infection rate (April 7).
  • On April 7 Dr. anthony Fauci, the leading epidimeologist for the U.S. government has complemented Utah effort at social distancing,even though our infection rate is at 0.06%, somewhat above California's rate.
  • I was wrong that the virus does not like hot weater based on many tropical counties having small case counts. As it turns out they were just doing a great job limiting infections
  • Much of the U.S. opened too early at the end of May, thinking the worst was over, at that point too many people assumed it was all over and everything could return to normal. They turned out to be "dead" wrong.
    • Early on modelers at the University of Washington predicted 10,000 deaths for the State of Utah. Three weeks later they reduced that prediction to 2,000. As of August 16, 2020, Utah's actual death count was just 363.
    • As of August 23, 2020, I believe we will have an approved vaccine between November 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021. Pfizer with partner Biontech and Moderna are presently leading the race.  
    Pandemic - The SARS-Cov 2 Virus