SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

theHaslams.com
The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective

Report for January 2022

Publication Note:

January 2022 update on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The data is all from February 4, 2022 as as sourced from Johns Hopkins University.

Weekly reports for Utah

The weekly seven day average of new cases of Covid-19 in Utah.

The weekly seven day average of Covid-19 deaths in Utah.

Most Recent Month

***SARS-Cov-2 - Pandemic or Endemic***

*** Focus on Utah ***

The 7-day moving average of new cases has decreased monotonically since January 18th. The high was 12,540 on January 16th, and the current value is 3,288. The steepest part of the descent is over, but the trend will remain downward. Data for Utah is through February 4th.

The infection rate in the United States for the full pandemic is now 26.3%, with 25% of that total coming in the last 28-days. Comparatively, Canada's total is 8.3%, with 20% of that coming in the last 28-days.

As I went state by state, it was shocking how the infected numbers during the last 28-days (January) were 5-10 times what was experienced in the prior 28-days (December)

The five states with the highest infection rates for the full pandemic are:

State	Percentage
Rhode Island	31.7%
Alaska	30.5%
North Dakota	29.4%
South Carolina	27.5%
Tennessee	27.4%

The five states with the lowest infection rates (full pandemic)

State	Percentage
Maine	13.2
Oregon	15.3%
Hawaii	15.5%
Maryland	15.9%
Vermont	16.6%

The five states with the highest infection rates for the last 28-days are:

State	Percentage
Alaska	8.1%
South Carolina	7.1%
Utah	6.8%
California	6.6
Oklahoma	6.5%

The five states with the lowest infection rates for the last 28-days are:

State	Percentage
Maine	2.03
Maryland	2.83%
Idaho	3.35%
Pennsylvania	3.86%
Connecticut	3.92%

States with the highest death rates (full pandemic)

State	Percentage
Ohio	1.65%
Pennsylvania	1.54
Mississippi	1.51%
Michigan	1.43
Connecticut	1.43%

States with the lowest death rates for the full pandemic:

State	Percentage
Utah	0.46%
Alaska	0.49%
Vermont	0.52%
Hawaii	0.54%
New Hampshire	0.80%

States with the highest death rates for the last 28 days:

State	Percentage
Maryland	0.91%
Pennsylvania	0.76%
Indiana	0.67%
Maine	0.54%
New Jerseye	0.65%

In the list abovee most of these states were well into the Omicron surge before the period started, thus we are seeing tail end effectts with more deaths.

States with the lowest death rates for the last 28 days:

State	Percentage
Hawaii	0.10%
Utah	0.13%
California	0.15%
Alaska	0.19%
New Jerseye	0.52%

The numbers infected with Omicron have been huge, yet Omicron infections led to relatively fewer deaths. However, because the number of Omicron infections was so high, that correlated to a large number of deaths as well.

*** Focus on the World ***

Omicron really did a number on France. Their infection rate #infected/population for the full pandemic is a stunning 31.5% and for the most recent 28-days is 13.8%. No other country has come close to 13.8% for the past 28-days.

Looking at the whole pandemic numbers, France is the highest by far at 31.5%.)The U.K is second with 26.3%. The U.s. is third with 23.1%, Sweden is fourth with 22.8%. Spain is fifth with 21.8%

Almost 50% of Japan's total infections occurred in the past 28-days.

In December Vietnam and Korea had significant (but not high) infection rates and those remain moderate now. Also in the moderate category are Thailand, the Philippines, and India, but none of these countries have the kind of rates you'd expect with omicron. Perhaps they were enforcing better precautions, or perhaps the prior infections and vaccinations were enough to calm their omicron experience.

Total pandemic infection rates in Asia are much lower than in Europe, the United States, or Brazil.

Country	2010 Population	Total Infected Count	Overall Infection Rate	Infected last 28 days	Infection Rate last 28 days	Infected Prior 28 Days	Change 28 day Periods	% Change 28 day Periods	Total Deaths	Overall Death Rate	Deaths Last 28 Days	Death Rate Last 28 days	Deaths Prior 28 Days	Change 28 day Periods	% Change 28 day Periods
ASIA
China	1,433,783,686	115,409	0.01%	3708	0.00%	1493	2,215	148.4%	4,849	4.20%	15	0.40%	0	15	0.0%
India	1,366,417,754	34,922,882	2.56%	287982	0.02%	268831	19,151	7.1%	481,893	1.38%	8,356	2.90%	9,739	-1,383	-14.2%
Japan	126,860,301	1,733,228	1.37%	6000	0.00%	3600	2,400	66.7%	18,392	1.06%	31	0.52%	54	-23	-42.6%
Philippines	108,116,615	2,855,819	2.64%	17156	0.02%	33673	-16,517	-49.1%	51,586	1.81%	2,184	12.73%	4,991	-2,807	-56.2%
Viet Nam	96,462,106	1,778,976	1.84%	453948	0.47%	333740	120,208	36.0%	33,021	1.86%	6,571	1.45%	3,591	2,980	83.0%
Thailand	69,625,582	2,232,485	3.21%	84317	0.12%	176498	-92,181	-52.2%	21,738	0.97%	754	0.89%	1,306	-552	-42.3%
S. Korea	51,225,308	642,207	1.25%	164849	0.32%	93099	71,750	77.1%	5,730	0.89%	1,837	1.11%	885	952	107.6%
Taiwan	23,773,876	17,095	0.07%	418	0.00%	151	267	176.8%	850	4.97%	2	0.48%	1	1	100.0%
Hong Kong	NA
Country	Population	Total Infected Count	Overall Infection Rate	Infected last 28 days	Infection Rate last 28 days	Infected Prior 28 Days	Change 28 day Periods	% Change 28 day Periods	Total Deaths	Overall Death Rate	Deaths Last 28 Days	Death Rate Last 28 days	Deaths Prior 28 Days	Change 28 day Periods	% Change 28 day Periods
EUROPE
Russia	145,961,031	10,374,292	7.11%	727,803	0.50%	984,750	-256,947	-26.1%	305,096	2.94%	28,460	3.91%	33,553	-5,093	-15.2%
Germany	83,517,045	7,218,920	8.64%	1,007,853	1.21%	1,398,317	-390,464	-27.9%	112,291	1.56%	9,037	0.90%	6,514	2,523	38.7%
U.K.	67,530,172	13,309,761	19.71%	2,786,335	4.13%	1,162,883	1,623,452	139.6%	149,324	1.12%	3,269	0.12%	3,827	-558	-14.6%
France	65,129,728	10,355,369	15.90%	2,334,363	3.58%	668,018	1,666,345	249.4%	124,930	1.21%	4,414	0.19%	1,634	2,780	170.1%
Italy	60,550,075	6,328,076	10.45%	1,218,994	2.01%	291,847	927,147	317.7%	137,786	2.18%	3,451	0.28%	1,787	1,664	93.1%
Spain	46,692,858	6,294,745	13.48%	1,091,870	2.34%	177,319	914,551	515.8%	89,405	1.42%	1,246	0.11%	655	591	90.2%
Greece	10,473,455	1,210,853	11.56%	244,632	2.34%	105,142	139,490	132.7%	20,790	1.72%	2,195	0.90%	2,273	-78	-3.4%
Sweden	10,036,379	1,314,784	13.10%	102,639	1.02%	35,051	67,588	192.8%	15,310	1.16%	140	0.14%	113	27	23.9%
Country	Population	Total Infected Count	Overall Infection Rate	Infected last 28 days	Infection Rate last 28 days	Infected Prior 28 Days	Change 28 day Periods	% Change 28 day Periods	Total Deaths	Overall Death Rate	Deaths Last 28 Days	Death Rate Last 28 days	Deaths Prior 28 Days	Change 28 day Periods	% Change 28 day Periods
AMERICAS
U.S.A	329,064,917	55,240,407	16.79%	6,002,352	1.82%	788,205	5,214,147	661.5%	826,120	1.50%	36,036	0.60%	32,769	3,267	10.0%
Canada	37,411,047	2,229,089	5.96%	413,323	1.10%	76,052	337,271	443.5%	30,401	1.36%	580	0.14%	627	-47	-7.5%
Brazil	212,559,417	22,297,427	10.49%	150,349	0.07%	263,923	-113,574	-43.0%	619,401	2.78%	3,501	2.33%	6,182	-2,681	-43.4%

Middle East
Iran	82,913,906	6,198,590	7.48%	62,448	0.08%	151,096	-88,648	-58.7%	131,702	2.12%	1,480	2.37%	2,951	-1,471	-49.8%
Turkey	83,809,754	9,554,771	11.40%	651,684	0.78%	667,385	-15,701	-2.4%	82,635	0.86%	4,805	0.74%	5,718	-913	-16.0%

Other
Australia	25,203,198	499,958	1.98%	273,442	1.08%	37,522	235,920	628.8%	2,266	0.45%	210	0.08%	235	25	10.6%

UNITED STATES
State	2010 Population	Total Infected Count	Overall Infection Rate	Infected last 28 days	Infection Rate last 28 days	Infected Prior 28 Days	Change 28 day Periods	% Change 28 day Periods	Total Deaths	Overall Death Rate	Deaths Last 28 Days	Death Rate Last 28 days	Deaths Prior 28 Days	Change 28 day Periods	% Change 28 day Periods
New Jersey	9,288,994	1,644,829	17.71%	369,122	3.97%	62,689	306,433	489%	29,073	1.77%	608	0.16%	372	236	63.4%
New York	20,201,249	3,684,152	18.24%	774,117	3.83%	184,259	589,858	320%	59,760	1.62%	1,925	0.25%	1,033	892	86.4%
Delaware	989,948	189,382	19.13%	32,928	3.33%	10,310	22,618	219%	2,286	1.21%	92	0.28%	75	17	22.7%
Rhode Island	1,097,379	231,096	21.06%	34,147	3.11%	13,779	20,368	148%	3,066	1.33%	118	0.35%	60	58	96.7%
Massachusetts	7,029,917	1,140,614	16.23%	204,770	2.91%	74,364	130,406	175%	20,273	1.78%	784	0.38%	402	382	95.0%
Ohio	11,799,448	2,072,663	17.57%	322,718	2.74%	157,835	164,883	104%	29,447	1.42%	1,092	0.34%	661	431	65.2%
New Hampshire	1,377,529	203,749	14.79%	36,137	2.62%	26,250	9,887	38%	1,973	0.97%	240	0.66%	142	98	69.0%
Illinois	12,812,508	2,238,750	17.47%	314,472	2.45%	122,090	192,382	158%	30,431	1.36%	1,286	0.41%	587	699	119.1%
Maryland	6,045,680	751,450	12.43%	143,554	2.37%	27,324	116,230	425%	11,896	1.58%	615	0.43%	290	325	112.1%
Connecticut	3,605,944	510,188	14.15%	84,913	2.35%	20,306	64,607	318%	9,160	1.80%	235	0.28%	135	100	74.1%
Hawaii	1,455,271	121,864	8.37%	33,479	2.30%	3,236	30,243	935%	1,094	0.90%	61	0.18%	82	-21	-25.6%
Pennsylvania	13,002,700	2,101,019	16.16%	298,073	2.29%	166,507	131,566	79%	36,799	1.75%	2,813	0.94%	1,962	851	43.4%
Vermont	643,077	67,226	10.45%	14,095	2.19%	10,287	3,808	37%	480	0.71%	63	0.45%	32	31	96.9%
Florida	21,538,187	3,741,058	17.37%	468,869	2.18%	39,748	429,121	1080%	65,504	1.75%	803	0.17%	1,367	-564	-41.3%
Wisconsin	5,893,718	1,132,356	19.21%	122,975	2.09%	98,041	24,934	25%	11,185	0.99%	1,039	0.84%	592	447	75.5%
West Virginia	1,793,716	337,326	18.81%	35,977	2.01%	22,694	13,283	59%	5,356	1.59%	366	1.02%	444	-78	-17.6%
Kansas	2,937,880	535,014	18.21%	56,401	1.92%	34,167	22,234	65%	7,049	1.32%	302	0.54%	236	66	28.0%
Michigan	10,077,331	1,710,325	16.97%	193,000	1.92%	207,670	-14,670	-7%	29,020	1.70%	2,912	1.51%	2,133	779	36.5%
Indiana	6,785,528	1,246,854	18.38%	128,519	1.89%	82,276	46,243	56%	19,037	1.53%	1,325	1.03%	814	511	62.8%
Maine	1,362,359	148,217	10.88%	23,619	1.73%	15,346	8,273	54%	1,556	1.05%	195	0.83%	129	66	51.2%
Minnesota	5,706,494	1,028,986	18.03%	95,281	1.67%	111,923	-16,642	-15%	10,704	1.04%	916	0.96%	788	128	16.2%
Virginia	8,631,393	1,158,764	13.42%	141,919	1.64%	43,057	98,862	230%	15,015	1.30%	834	0.59%	628	206	32.8%
Georgia	10,711,908	1,839,879	17.18%	171,004	1.60%	27,839	143,165	514%	31,443	1.71%	788	0.46%	1,172	-384	-32.8%
Colorado	5,773,714	929,275	16.09%	90,688	1.57%	78,134	12,554	16%	10,271	1.11%	927	1.02%	937	-10	-1.1%
New Mexico	2,117,522	357,480	16.88%	33,169	1.57%	37,778	-4,609	-12%	5,866	1.64%	447	1.35%	294	153	52.0%
Missouri	6,137,428	1,021,433	16.64%	92,929	1.51%	57,888	35,041	61%	16,235	1.59%	667	0.72%	2,859	-2,192	-76.7%
Nebraska	1,961,504	344,392	17.56%	28,379	1.45%	24,653	3,726	15%	3,338	0.97%	158	0.56%	179	-21	-11.7%
Arizona	7,151,502	1,390,409	19.44%	98,355	1.38%	22,593	75,762	335%	24,355	1.75%	1,766	1.80%	1,153	613	53.2%
North Carolina	10,439,388	1,732,568	16.60%	142,123	1.36%	54,891	87,232	159%	19,457	1.12%	601	0.42%	574	27	4.7%
North Dakota	779,094	175,100	22.47%	10,289	1.32%	12,895	-2,606	-20%	2,057	1.17%	103	1.00%	126	-23	-18.3%
Arkansas	3,011,524	572,822	19.02%	39,466	1.31%	16,994	22,472	132%	9,196	1.61%	457	1.16%	238	219	92.0%
Tennessee	6,910,840	1,412,302	20.44%	89,080	1.29%	36,509	52,571	144%	20,842	1.48%	3,452	3.88%	890	2,562	287.9%
Kentucky	4,505,836	856,145	19.00%	57,794	1.28%	43,831	13,963	32%	12,118	1.42%	892	1.54%	1,152	-260	-22.6%
Iowa	3,190,369	575,501	18.04%	40,878	1.28%	40,216	662	2%	7,858	1.37%	413	1.01%	376	37	9.8%
South Dakota	886,667	179,100	20.20%	11,220	1.27%	11,276	-56	0%	2,494	1.39%	123	1.10%	90	33	36.7%
Alabama	5,024,279	913,603	18.18%	61,043	1.21%	12,397	48,646	392%	16,455	1.80%	270	0.44%	351	-81	-23.1%
Louisiana	4,657,757	859,856	18.46%	55,906	1.20%	10,940	44,966	411%	15,001	1.74%	160	0.29%	211	-51	-24.2%
California	39,538,223	5,584,889	14.13%	435,015	1.10%	147,126	287,889	196%	76,534	1.37%	1,721	0.40%	2,289	-568	-24.8%
Utah	3,271,616	636,992	19.47%	35,040	1.07%	41,384	-6,344	-15%	3,787	0.59%	223	0.64%	278	-55	-19.8%
South Carolina	5,118,425	975,320	19.06%	53,598	1.05%	19,393	34,205	176%	14,636	1.50%	364	0.68%	431	-67	-15.5%
Alaska	733,391	160,089	21.83%	7,552	1.03%	9,866	-2,314	-23%	979	0.61%	96	1.27%	142	-46	-32.4%
Oklahoma	3,956,971	716,851	18.12%	38,518	0.97%	22,211	16,307	73%	12,503	1.74%	420	1.09%	1,120	-700	-62.5%
Mississippi	2,961,279	561,262	18.95%	28,233	0.95%	8,948	19,285	216%	10,455	1.86%	154	0.55%	148	6	4.1%
Washington	7,708,281	849,075	11.02%	68,240	0.89%	43,137	25,103	58%	9,853	1.16%	440	0.64%	615	-175	-28.5%
Texas	29,145,605	4,592,209	15.76%	236,266	0.81%	91,272	144,994	159%	75,757	1.65%	1,546	0.65%	2,255	-709	-31.4%
Nevada	3,104,614	459,957	14.82%	24,684	0.80%	16,316	8,368	51%	8,419	1.83%	350	1.42%	357	-7	-2.0%
Wyoming	576,851	116,643	20.22%	4,444	0.77%	6,494	-2,050	-32%	1,526	1.31%	98	2.21%	185	-87	-47.0%
Oregon	4,237,256	421,263	9.94%	26,694	0.63%	22,432	4,262	19%	5,655	1.34%	412	1.54%	681	-269	-39.5%
Idaho	1,839,106	320,802	17.44%	11,488	0.62%	12,570	-1,082	-9%	4,169	1.30%	192	1.67%	324	-132	-40.7%
Montana	1,084,225	198,520	18.31%	5,930	0.55%	11,784	-5,854	-50%	2,908	1.46%	140	2.36%	334	-194	-58.1%

Weekly SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Update for Utah

January 14 ,2021

The easy transmissibility of the Omicron variant clearly showed up in this week's data.

The number of new cases on January 3, 2022, was 14,754 (which included cases from December 30 - January 2 which were holidays). The number of new cases for January 14, 2022, was 11,128.

From the 7-day moving average chart below you can see the consistent upward track of new cases (averaged over the prior 7 days).

I believe the upward trend will continue for at least 10 more days and perhaps 15 more days before we begin to see a significant downtrend. Once the downtrend begins it should be as steep as the ascent has been.

Fortunately, this variant does not cause as much illness as the prior variants. A large number of cases is making it difficult just to find tests, while it makes contract tracing useless.

In two of my children's families, there have been some cases, starting just before Christmas. The first grandson afflicted was probably a case of the delta variant. As the two families discussed their experiences this week, it was found the younger sibling of the first one infected had also had Covid-19 (verified by an antigen test), but his only complaint was his knees ached every night. So far most have had insignificant symptoms of the disease

Before this Omicron surge is over, I think the 7-day moving average of new infections could double from here. But after this surge, we should be approaching herd immunity at which point we may have several months of calm.

The data for the week ending 10-Dec-2021 shows a real decrease in new cases. The total for the week was just 8,729, the lowest since August 27, 2021. This clearly means we avoided much spread during the Thanksgiving holiday. Utah's full vaccination rate is still a poor 61%. Cases in Utah Public schools stand at 26,669 which reflects a smaller increase than prior weeks. This is good news.

January 21 ,2021

After all the cases from the holiday weekend were added in, Utah hit its all-time record high for the 7-day moving average of new SARS-CoV-2 infections at 12,450. That average has since fallen to around 10,500 cases per day. As the graph shows, we may be in a new plateauing phase here in Utah. I do think that within two weeks we'll start to see a true decrease in case counts.

Shame on the legislature of the state of Utah for throwing out the mask mandate in Salt Lake and Summit counties at such a critical juncture in the fight against Omicron. The mandate had just over two weeks left and yet they felt the need to ignore those educated in Public Health issues and prove to the world that they know better. Apparently, the house leadership did not want to bring the bill to the floor but their colleagues finally demanded the chance to vote. So at about 11:30 this morning, the folly was done. My house representative voted against terminating the mandate. Thanks, Steve.

The death rate in Utah has again climbed to an average of eleven per day, which is near the top of its historic highs.

Dr. Scott Gotleib, former head of the FDA said the reported number of cases is far below the true number. He thinks the true number is probably 3-5 times the reported rate. He also noted that the Los Angeles area infection rate has suddenly fallen, well before it has elsewhere in the United States. He says the LA area was hit with the first South African variant, and that gave a considerable number of residents immunity from Omicron.

Since the state of Utah has voided the mask mandate that was in effect in Salt Lake County, I won't be attending church in person for the rest of January 2022.

January 28, 2021

On January 12th I wrote, "near the end of the month, we should start to see a dramatic decrease in the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases in Utah. That dramatic decrease started on January 19th, but this week's data confirmed the rapid decrease of about 800 cases per day. At this rate, we will be under 2000 cases per day by next

Note: This latest surge has provided hospitals the most stress of the whole pandemic. See the second graph provided by the Utah Department of Health.

So what's next? I think the next six months will show low levels of transmission unless a new strain of the virus appears that eludes vaccines and prior infections. Following that, it will depend on how long resistance from vaccination/infection lasts.