theHaslams.com
The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
Report for February 2022
See the index to all available reports.
Publication Note:
Reports Added during February 2022
February 2022 update on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The data is all from March 5, 2022 as as sourced from Johns Hopkins University.
The weekly seven day average of new cases of Covid-19 in Utah has fallen to just 327 per day!
The weekly seven day average of Covid-19 deaths in Utah.
Most Recent Month
***SARS-Cov-2 - Pandemic or Endemic***
*** Focus on Utah ***
The 7-day moving average of new infections in Utah has declined to just 327 per day. You have to go back to the period between May, 5, 2021 and July, 18, 2021 to find lower numbers!
*** Focus on the United States ***

Infection rates throughout the U.S. are low. However, there are a few states that have NOT completed the Omicron surge. These include Idaho, Maine, Alaska, and Kentucky. Somehow Omicron came late to these states. Last month I noted that Idaho was low, indicating a late start with Omicron.

As I went state by state, most states had a drop in infections of around 80% from the prior month. That said many states up-ticked in their death rate. When cases go down but deaths don't the death rate #dead/#infected will rise.

The five states with the highest infection rates for the full pandemic are:

State Percentage
Alaska 32.8%
Rhode Island 32.5%
North Dakota 30.6%
Tennessee 29.1.4%
South Carolina 28.6%

Utah moved from 6th to 7th place on this list at 28.2%, just behind Kentucky at 28.5%.

The five states with the lowest infection rates (full pandemic)

State Percentage
Hawaii 16.2%
Oregon 16.6%
Maryland 16.9%
Maine 16.9%
Vermont 16.6%

The five states with the highest infection rates for the last 28-days are:

State Percentage
Maine 3.7%
Idaho 2.3%
Alaska 2.1%
Kentucky 2.06%
Montana 1.9%

Last month Idaho was looking like it had somewhat escaped Omicron, this month it caught up. Alaska is the only state on this list two months in a row

The five states with the lowest infection rates for the last 28-days are:

State Percentage
Maryland 0.33%
Ohio 0.45%
New York 0.45%
New Jersey 0.50%
Connecticut 0.52%

Ohio was a surprise entry on this list. The others had all got Omicron early in the national surge.

States with the highest death rates (full pandemic) are:

State Percentage
Pennsylvania 1.58%
Mississippi 1.54%
New Jersey 1.52%%
Michigan 1.47%
Connecticut 1.5%

States with the lowest death rates for the (full pandemic) are:

State Percentage
Utah 0.48%
Alaska 0.49%
Vermont 0.54%
Hawaii 0.57%
New Hampshire 0.82%

Utah continues to be the best. Reasons: Younger average population and a solid healthcare system.

States with the highest death rates for the last 28 days:

State Percentage
Oklahoma 4.1%
Georgia 3.54%
Indiana 3.51%
Nevada 1.43%
Virginia 1.15%

This list was radically different from last month. The named states clearly had challenges with addressing the needs of those infected with Omicron (at least the top 3.)

States with the lowest death rates for the last 28 days:

State Percentage
North Dakota 0.34%
Maine 0.61%
Alaska 0.62%
Rhode Island 0.71%
Idaho 0.72%

This list and the current situation show a shortcoming of the simple computation of death rate = #died/#infected. One way to have a low death rate is to have a huge number of people who were infected, but where relatively few of them died. For short time periods like 28-days this method can skew results and clearly did in this case.

*** Focus on the World ***

For the first time ever, when I opened up the main page at Johns Hopkins University for tracking the pandemic, the United States was no longer at the top of the list! Early on that position went to the nation with the highest total infections. For the last couple of months, it has gone to the nation with the highest number of cases over the past 28 days. Finally, after almost two years the U.S. no longer held the top position.

Asia finally received the Omicron variant and the numbers exploded, and that includes China. Nearly 3/4 of China's reported cases occurred in the last 28 days! The winter olympics happened to coincide with the greatest spread of SARS-CoV-2 ever recorded there.

Thailand was also hit with about 20% of all their cases in the last 28 days. South Korea reported 3/4 of all their cases in the last 28 days as well! Vietnam also had about 33% of all their cases in the past 28 days.

Taiwan has been remarkable at stopping the spread of the virus. Their infection rate is just 0.09%. A remarkable accomplishment.

Total pandemic infection rates in Asia are much lower than in Europe, the United States, or Brazil.

Europe was surprisingly not as well off as the United States over the last 28 days as every country had a higher infection rate than the United States. Most of the European nations I follow have an infection rate similar to the United States around the 25% mark. France is much worse at 35%, while Germany is better at just 18%. Over the last 28 days, Germany's infection rate was the highest at nearly 6%, which indicates that 1/3 of all of Germany's infections occurred in the last 28 days!

The Data for February 5, 2022
Country 2010 Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
ASIA                              
China 1,433,783,686 120,364 0.01% 4256 0.00% 3708 548 14.8% 4,849 4.03% 0 0.00% 15 -15 0.0%
India 1,366,417,754 41,952,712 3.07% 6726326 0.49% 287982 6,438,344 2235.7% 500,055 1.19% 16,877 0.25% 8,356 8,521 102.0%
Japan 126,860,301 3,117,346 2.46% 1277332 1.01% 6000 1,271,332 21188.9% 19,157 0.61% 659 0.05% 31 628 2025.8%
Philippines 108,116,615 3,594,002 3.32% 696544 0.64% 17156 679,388 3960.1% 54,214 1.51% 2,425 0.35% 2,184 241 11.0%
Viet Nam 96,462,106 2,315,689 2.40% 460532 0.48% 453948 6,584 1.5% 38,147 1.65% 4,419 0.96% 6,571 -2,152 -32.7%
Thailand 69,625,582 2,475,632 3.56% 230382 0.33% 84317 146,065 173.2% 22,250 0.90% 470 0.20% 754 -284 -37.7%
S. Korea 51,225,308 934,656 1.82% 277148 0.54% 164849 112,299 68.1% 6,836 0.73% 904 0.33% 1,837 -933 -50.8%
Taiwan 23,773,876 19,029 0.08% 1760 0.01% 418 1,342 321.1% 851 4.47% 1 0.06% 2 -1 -50.0%
Hong Kong NA                            
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
EUROPE                              
Russia 145,961,031 12,257,664 8.40% 1,669,844 1.14% 984,750 685,094 69.6% 327,310 2.67% 19,154 1.15% 33,553 -14,399 -42.9%
Germany 83,517,045 10,783,066 12.91% 3,276,489 3.92% 1,398,317 1,878,172 134.3% 118,548 1.10% 4,872 0.15% 6,514 -1,642 -25.2%
U.K. 67,530,172 17,809,736 26.37% 3,626,931 5.37% 1,162,883 2,464,048 211.9% 158,521 0.89% 8,273 0.23% 3,827 4,446 116.2%
France 65,129,728 20,517,048 31.50% 8,984,700 13.80% 668,018 8,316,682 1245.0% 133,202 0.65% 4,414 0.05% 6,845 -2,431 -35.5%
Italy 60,550,075 11,449,601 18.91% 4,373,236 7.22% 291,847 4,081,389 1398.5% 148,167 1.29% 9,260 0.21% 1,787 7,473 418.2%
Spain 46,692,858 10,199,716 21.84% 3,277,250 7.02% 177,319 3,099,931 1748.2% 94,040 0.92% 4,203 0.13% 655 3,548 541.7%
Greece 10,473,455 2,020,846 19.29% 580,186 5.54% 105,142 475,044 451.8% 23,927 1.18% 2,648 0.46% 2,273 375 16.5%
Sweden 10,036,379 2,287,785 22.79% 884,389 8.81% 35,051 849,338 2423.1% 16,180 0.71% 731 0.08% 113 618 546.9%
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
AMERICAS                              
U.S.A 329,064,917 76,144,354 23.14% 17,358,977 5.28% 788,205 16,570,772 2102.3% 899,754 1.18% 60,020 0.35% 32,769 27,251 83.2%
Canada 37,411,047 3,101,368 8.29% 674,852 1.80% 76,052 598,800 787.4% 34,488 1.11% 3,793 0.56% 627 3,166 504.9%
Brazil 212,559,417 26,107,894 12.28% 3,720,964 1.75% 263,923 3,457,041 1309.9% 630,301 2.41% 10,647 0.29% 6,182 4,465 72.2%
                               
Middle East                              
Iran 82,913,906 6,520,707 7.86% 280,753 0.34% 151,096 129,657 85.8% 132,681 2.03% 822 0.29% 2,951 -2,129 -72.1%
Turkey 83,809,754 12,680,321 15.13% 3,153,421 3.76% 667,385 2,486,036 372.5% 88,312 0.70% 4,833 0.15% 5,718 -885 -15.5%
                               
Other                              
Australia 25,203,198 2,680,321 10.63% 1,914,481 7.60% 37,522 1,876,959 5002.3% 2,266 0.08% 1,752 0.09% 235 1,517 645.5%
                               
UNITED STATES                              
State 2010 Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
Maine 1,362,359 179,915 13.21% 27,657 2.03% 15,346 12,311 80% 1,800 1.00% 185 0.67% 129 56 43.4%
Maryland 6,045,680 961,805 15.91% 171,236 2.83% 27,324 143,912 527% 13,655 1.42% 1,563 0.91% 290 1,273 439.0%
Idaho 1,839,106 387,278 21.06% 61,557 3.35% 12,570 48,987 390% 4,446 1.15% 243 0.39% 324 -81 -25.0%
Pennsylvania 13,002,700 2,688,808 20.68% 502,405 3.86% 166,507 335,898 202% 41,359 1.54% 3,833 0.76% 1,962 1,871 95.4%
Connecticut 3,605,944 704,871 19.55% 141,236 3.92% 20,306 120,930 596% 10,083 1.43% 802 0.57% 135 667 494.1%
Iowa 3,190,369 724,912 22.72% 126,293 3.96% 40,216 86,077 214% 8,657 1.19% 638 0.51% 376 262 69.7%
Ohio 11,799,448 2,072,663 17.57% 468,975 3.97% 157,835 311,140 197% 34,217 1.65% 1,316 0.28% 661 655 99.1%
Montana 1,084,225 245,606 22.65% 43,866 4.05% 11,784 32,082 272% 3,029 1.23% 113 0.26% 334 -221 -66.2%
New Jersey 9,288,994 2,126,230 22.89% 379,205 4.08% 62,689 316,516 505% 31,868 1.50% 2,454 0.65% 372 2,082 559.7%
Virginia 8,631,393 1,572,022 18.21% 362,795 4.20% 43,057 319,738 743% 16,703 1.06% 906 0.25% 628 278 44.3%
Georgia 10,711,908 2,394,327 22.35% 465,385 4.34% 27,839 437,546 1572% 33,294 1.39% 1,773 0.38% 1,172 601 51.3%
Missouri 6,137,428 1,354,367 22.07% 281,104 4.58% 57,888 223,216 386% 17,843 1.32% 1,361 0.48% 2,859 -1,498 -52.4%
New York 20,201,249 4,833,336 23.93% 940,738 4.66% 184,259 756,479 411% 65,315 1.35% 5,255 0.56% 1,033 4,222 408.7%
Nebraska 1,961,504 445,793 22.73% 91,639 4.67% 24,653 66,986 272% 3,731 0.84% 289 0.32% 179 110 61.5%
Illinois 12,812,508 2,957,538 23.08% 599,565 4.68% 122,090 477,475 391% 33,727 1.14% 2,863 0.48% 587 2,276 387.7%
Michigan 10,077,331 2,295,050 22.77% 474,272 4.71% 207,670 266,602 128% 32,873 1.43% 2,979 0.63% 2,133 846 39.7%
Oregon 4,237,256 649,389 15.33% 200,122 4.72% 22,432 177,690 792% 6,181 0.95% 453 0.23% 681 -228 -33.5%
South Dakota 886,667 230,240 25.97% 42,204 4.76% 11,276 30,928 274% 2,687 1.17% 157 0.37% 90 67 74.4%
Indiana 6,785,528 1,646,937 24.27% 328,937 4.85% 82,276 246,661 300% 21,712 1.32% 2,218 0.67% 814 1,404 172.5%
Texas 29,145,605 6,381,059 21.89% 1,420,039 4.87% 91,272 1,328,767 1456% 80,442 1.26% 4,032 0.28% 2,255 1,777 78.8%
New Hampshire 1,377,529 279,842 20.31% 67,890 4.93% 26,250 41,640 159% 2,239 0.80% 222 0.33% 142 80 56.3%
Colorado 5,773,714 1,229,443 21.29% 287,006 4.97% 78,134 208,872 267% 11,194 0.91% 792 0.28% 937 -145 -15.5%
Louisiana 4,657,757 1,133,482 24.34% 233,650 5.02% 10,940 222,710 2036% 15,905 1.40% 802 0.34% 211 591 280.1%
Florida 21,538,187 5,590,369 25.96% 1,086,481 5.04% 39,748 1,046,733 2633% 65,993 1.18% 2,651 0.24% 1,367 1,284 93.9%
Nevada 3,104,614 663,107 21.36% 158,378 5.10% 16,316 142,062 871% 9,083 1.37% 578 0.36% 357 221 61.9%
State 2010 Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
Minnesota 5,706,494 1,359,058 23.82% 296,212 5.19% 111,923 184,289 165% 11,749 0.86% 838 0.28% 788 50 6.3%
Delaware 989,948 250,311 25.29% 51,804 5.23% 10,310 41,494 402% 2,563 1.02% 233 0.45% 75 158 210.7%
Wyoming 576,851 149,126 25.85% 30,232 5.24% 6,494 23,738 366% 1,650 1.11% 78 0.26% 185 -107 -57.8%
Massachusetts 7,029,917 1,625,704 23.13% 374,205 5.32% 74,364 299,841 403% 22,316 1.37% 1,806 0.48% 402 1,404 349.3%
Vermont 643,077 106,690 16.59% 34,232 5.32% 10,287 23,945 233% 553 0.52% 66 0.19% 32 34 106.3%
Tennessee 6,910,840 1,894,005 27.41% 379,205 5.49% 36,509 342,696 939% 22,850 1.21% 1,835 0.48% 890 945 106.2%
Mississippi 2,961,279 744,023 25.13% 164,250 5.55% 8,948 155,302 1736% 11,202 1.51% 691 0.42% 148 543 366.9%
Alabama 5,024,279 1,229,300 24.47% 284,424 5.66% 12,397 272,027 2194% 17,215 1.40% 672 0.24% 351 321 91.5%
Washington 7,708,281 1,355,428 17.58% 441,448 5.73% 43,137 398,311 923% 10,845 0.80% 871 0.20% 615 256 41.6%
New Mexico 2,117,522 487,604 23.03% 122,743 5.80% 37,778 84,965 225% 6,516 1.34% 547 0.45% 294 253 86.1%
West Virginia 1,793,716 458,112 25.54% 107,647 6.00% 22,694 84,953 374% 5,846 1.28% 437 0.41% 444 -7 -1.6%
Wisconsin 5,893,718 1,535,404 26.05% 360,892 6.12% 98,041 262,851 268% 12,600 0.82% 1,172 0.32% 592 580 98.0%
Rhode Island 1,097,379 347,901 31.70% 67,890 6.19% 13,779 54,111 393% 3,354 0.96% 229 0.34% 60 169 281.7%
Kentucky 4,505,836 1,185,431 26.31% 280,515 6.23% 43,831 236,684 540% 13,026 1.10% 707 0.25% 1,152 -445 -38.6%
North Dakota 779,094 229,271 29.43% 48,926 6.28% 12,895 36,031 279% 2,174 0.95% 96 0.20% 126 -30 -23.8%
Hawaii 1,455,271 224,793 15.45% 92,209 6.34% 3,236 88,973 2749% 1,204 0.54% 96 0.10% 82 14 17.1%
North Carolina 10,439,388 2,470,242 23.66% 669,951 6.42% 54,891 615,060 1121% 21,097 0.85% 1,441 0.22% 574 867 151.0%
Arkansas 3,011,524 790,223 26.24% 193,814 6.44% 16,994 176,820 1040% 9,733 1.23% 455 0.23% 238 217 91.2%
Kansas 2,937,880 744,712 25.35% 190,035 6.47% 34,167 155,868 456% 7,702 1.03% 510 0.27% 236 274 116.1%
Arizona 7,151,502 1,894,335 26.49% 464,094 6.49% 22,593 441,501 1954% 26,430 1.40% 1,844 0.40% 1,153 691 59.9%
Oklahoma 3,956,971 992,932 25.09% 257,035 6.50% 22,211 234,824 1057% 13,532 1.36% 910 0.35% 1,120 -210 -18.8%
California 39,538,223 8,595,283 21.74% 2,599,199 6.57% 147,126 2,452,073 1667% 80,798 0.94% 3,886 0.15% 2,289 1,597 69.8%
Utah 3,271,616 895,459 27.37% 222,892 6.81% 41,384 181,508 439% 4,160 0.46% 292 0.13% 278 14 5.0%
South Carolina 5,118,425 1,406,933 27.49% 365,020 7.13% 19,393 345,627 1782% 15,791 1.12% 999 0.27% 431 568 131.8%
Alaska 733,391 224,311 30.59% 59,399 8.10% 9,866 49,533 502% 1,093 0.49% 114 0.19% 142 -28 -19.7%
February 11, 2021

The Omicron surge has collapsed. The latest 7-day moving average of new cases of Covid-19 has dropped to 1,805. Between January 1, 2022, and today there were 273,899 new cases reported in Utah, and thousands more that were never reported.

Over the coming weeks, I expect many things to move toward normalization. Job growth will accelerate (which is good because that will help reduce supply chain problems). More people will start to plan summer vacations. While the conference center won't be full the first weekend in April, there will be the largest number of attendees since October Conference 2019. The Tabernacle Choir at Temple Square will start doing weekly in-person performances of "Music and the Spoken Word." In general, people can again visit with each other, with little worry of infection. President Biden will again proclaim the end of the pandemic.

The only thing I think that can derail this would be a new variant that can largely defeat current vaccines and prior infection.

February 18, 2021

I think I will stop following the pandemic around March 15. Two years is a lot longer than I expedted to track this huge public health challenge.

Utah's governor declared victory yesterday, saying that the state no longer needs to be involved. In ny my view stake government HAS NEVER been appropriately involved except for vaccine distribution in the earliest days of that effort. The state is near tops in the nation with respect to the percentage of the population that were infected.

Utah's governor declared victory yesterday, saying that the state no longer needs to be involved. In my view, the state government HAS NEVER been appropriately involved except for vaccine distribution in the earliest days of that effort. The state is near tops in the nation with respect to the percentage of the population that has been infected.

Deaths remain very high, but they are always a lagging indicator.

If there is not a new variant that evades vaccines and treatments, this pandemic is coming to a close.

Omicron is done. The 7-day moving average of new cases has dropped to 533, almost a 50% drop from the prior week. The last time the count was this low was mid-July 2021 (between beta and delta)
February 25 ,2021
Omicron is done. The 7-day moving average of new cases has dropped to 533, almost a 50% drop from the prior week. The last time the count was this low was mid-July 2021 (between beta and delta).

New studies suggest that T-cells generated by vaccine or infection appear to be hanging around to supply protection for perhaps years to come.

So what's next? I think the next six months will show low levels of transmission unless a new strain of the virus appears that eludes vaccines and prior infections. Following that, it will depend on how long resistance from vaccination/infection lasts.

It is time to store the masks (if you are fully vaccinated) and celebrate. With a bit of luck, this could be the end of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. It is well past time for this to be over!