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The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
Report for December 2021
See the index to all available reports.
Publication Note:
A summary of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic during December 2021. The data is all from January 3, 2022 as as sourced from Johns Hopkins University. Starting with this report the state populations were updated to the values from the official 2020 U.S. census.

Also see Weekly data for Utah.

The weekly seven day average of new cases of Covid-19 in Utah.
The weekly seven day average of Covid-19 deaths in Utah.
Most Recent Month
***SARS-Cov-2 - Pandemic or Endemic***
*** Focus on Utah ***

Omicron has already hit Europe hard, but so far Asia seems to not have the variant in large numbers.

In Europe during the last 28 days the number of new infections has been huge. Here is a sample

Country Cases Percentage
U.K. 2,786,335 4.1%
France 2,334,363 3.6%
Spain 1,091,870 2.3%
Greece 244,632 2.3%

Vietnam is an exception in Asia as the case counts there are very high with the 28-day count jumping by 453,948 cases. Taiwan has done a terrific job avoiding the spread. Their latest 28-day count was just 418. Japan had only 6000 new cases in the last 28 days.

*** Focus on the United States ****

Meanwhile in the United States all efforts to contain the spread of the virus seem futile. The U.S. had 6,002,352 cases in the last 4 weeks. That's almost 2% of the population. This brings the infection rate in the U.S. to 16.8%. The U.K. is worse at 19.7%, but they are further through their Omicron surge than we are. The infection rate in Canada is only 6%. The response of the U.S. government to the SARS-CoV-2 is simply abysmal, it makes us look like a 3rd world country. Ok, yes, you could argue that we have the most accurate numbers, nevertheless the U.S. response is poor.

The five states with the highest infection rates (full pandemic)

State Percentage
North Dakota 22.4%
Alaska 21.8%
Rhode Island 21.1%
Tennessee 20.4%
Wyoming 20.2%

The five states with the lowest infection rates (full pandemic)

State Percentage
Hawaii 8.3%
Oregon 29.9%
Vermont 10.5%
Maine 10.8%
Washington 11.0%

Over the last 28 days the states with the most growth of infections are (compares the prior 28 days to the most recent 28 days)

State Percentage
Florida 1080%
Hawaii 935%
Georgia 514%%
New Jersey 459%
Maryland 425%

The best results for the most recent 28 days:

State Percentage
Montana -50%
Wyoming -23%
Alaska -23%
North Dakota -20%
Utah -15%

These are states where the Omicron variant has not yet made a difference, but certainly will in the coming weeks.

As the Omicron variant takes hold and makes many people sick, the overall death rate should drop as there will be larger numbers infected resulting few deaths per new case. I see this happening now in states where Omicron is raging.

As of this report the states with the lowest death rate (full pandemic) are

State Percentage
Utah 0.59%
Alaska 0.61%
Vermont 0.71%
Hawaii 0.90%
Nebraska 0.97%

States with the worst death rates

State Percentage
Mississippi 1.86%
Nevada 1.83%
Alabama 1.80%
Connecticut 1.80%
Massachusetts 1.78%
*** Focus on Utah ***
When I heard the report that the Missionary Training Center in Provo had 91 cases of Covid-19, my first thought was Omicron had arrived! The next few weeks will be brutal in terms of case counts, while a large number of those cases will be so mild that they won't even be reported. When the surge in Utah ends (I expecting near the end of January), we and many other places should be near herd immunity, ushering in six months with little SARS-CoV2 activity. That said, the immunity to this virus is unlikely to be permanent and we start the next wave in the fall of 2022. That wave however probably won't be too big assuming people stay current with their vaccinations.
The Data for the week ending January 3, 2021 - Table renders properly with Edge Browser
Country 2010 Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods  
ASIA                                
China 1,433,783,686 115,409 0.01% 3708 0.00% 1493 2,215 148.4% 4,849 4.20% 15 0.40% 0 15 0.0%  
India 1,366,417,754 34,922,882 2.56% 287982 0.02% 268831 19,151 7.1% 481,893 1.38% 8,356 2.90% 9,739 -1,383 -14.2%  
Japan 126,860,301 1,733,228 1.37% 6000 0.00% 3600 2,400 66.7% 18,392 1.06% 31 0.52% 54 -23 -42.6%  
Philippines 108,116,615 2,855,819 2.64% 17156 0.02% 33673 -16,517 -49.1% 51,586 1.81% 2,184 12.73% 4,991 -2,807 -56.2%  
Viet Nam 96,462,106 1,778,976 1.84% 453948 0.47% 333740 120,208 36.0% 33,021 1.86% 6,571 1.45% 3,591 2,980 83.0%  
Thailand 69,625,582 2,232,485 3.21% 84317 0.12% 176498 -92,181 -52.2% 21,738 0.97% 754 0.89% 1,306 -552 -42.3%  
S. Korea 51,225,308 642,207 1.25% 164849 0.32% 93099 71,750 77.1% 5,730 0.89% 1,837 1.11% 885 952 107.6%  
Taiwan 23,773,876 17,095 0.07% 418 0.00% 151 267 176.8% 850 4.97% 2 0.48% 1 1 100.0%  
Hong Kong NA                              
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods  
EUROPE                                
Russia 145,961,031 10,374,292 7.11% 727,803 0.50% 984,750 -256,947 -26.1% 305,096 2.94% 28,460 3.91% 33,553 -5,093 -15.2%  
Germany 83,517,045 7,218,920 8.64% 1,007,853 1.21% 1,398,317 -390,464 -27.9% 112,291 1.56% 9,037 0.90% 6,514 2,523 38.7%  
U.K. 67,530,172 13,309,761 19.71% 2,786,335 4.13% 1,162,883 1,623,452 139.6% 149,324 1.12% 3,269 0.12% 3,827 -558 -14.6%  
France 65,129,728 10,355,369 15.90% 2,334,363 3.58% 668,018 1,666,345 249.4% 124,930 1.21% 4,414 0.19% 1,634 2,780 170.1%  
Italy 60,550,075 6,328,076 10.45% 1,218,994 2.01% 291,847 927,147 317.7% 137,786 2.18% 3,451 0.28% 1,787 1,664 93.1% DEATHS DROPPED 50%
Spain 46,692,858 6,294,745 13.48% 1,091,870 2.34% 177,319 914,551 515.8% 89,405 1.42% 1,246 0.11% 655 591 90.2%  
Greece 10,473,455 1,210,853 11.56% 244,632 2.34% 105,142 139,490 132.7% 20,790 1.72% 2,195 0.90% 2,273 -78 -3.4%  
Sweden 10,036,379 1,314,784 13.10% 102,639 1.02% 35,051 67,588 192.8% 15,310 1.16% 140 0.14% 113 27 23.9%  
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods  
AMERICAS                                
U.S.A 329,064,917 55,240,407 16.79% 6,002,352 1.82% 788,205 5,214,147 661.5% 826,120 1.50% 36,036 0.60% 32,769 3,267 10.0%  
Canada 37,411,047 2,229,089 5.96% 413,323 1.10% 76,052 337,271 443.5% 30,401 1.36% 580 0.14% 627 -47 -7.5%  
Brazil 212,559,417 22,297,427 10.49% 150,349 0.07% 263,923 -113,574 -43.0% 619,401 2.78% 3,501 2.33% 6,182 -2,681 -43.4%  
                                 
Middle East                                
Iran 82,913,906 6,198,590 7.48% 62,448 0.08% 151,096 -88,648 -58.7% 131,702 2.12% 1,480 2.37% 2,951 -1,471 -49.8%  
Turkey 83,809,754 9,554,771 11.40% 651,684 0.78% 667,385 -15,701 -2.4% 82,635 0.86% 4,805 0.74% 5,718 -913 -16.0%  
                                 
Other                                
Australia 25,203,198 499,958 1.98% 273,442 1.08% 37,522 235,920 628.8% 2,266 0.45% 210 0.08% 235 25 10.6%  
                                 
UNITED STATES                                
State 2010 Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods  
New Jersey 9,288,994 1,644,829 17.71% 369,122 3.97% 62,689 306,433 489% 29,073 1.77% 608 0.16% 372 236 63.4%  
New York 20,201,249 3,684,152 18.24% 774,117 3.83% 184,259 589,858 320% 59,760 1.62% 1,925 0.25% 1,033 892 86.4%  
Delaware 989,948 189,382 19.13% 32,928 3.33% 10,310 22,618 219% 2,286 1.21% 92 0.28% 75 17 22.7%  
Rhode Island 1,097,379 231,096 21.06% 34,147 3.11% 13,779 20,368 148% 3,066 1.33% 118 0.35% 60 58 96.7%  
Massachusetts 7,029,917 1,140,614 16.23% 204,770 2.91% 74,364 130,406 175% 20,273 1.78% 784 0.38% 402 382 95.0%  
Ohio 11,799,448 2,072,663 17.57% 322,718 2.74% 157,835 164,883 104% 29,447 1.42% 1,092 0.34% 661 431 65.2%  
New Hampshire 1,377,529 203,749 14.79% 36,137 2.62% 26,250 9,887 38% 1,973 0.97% 240 0.66% 142 98 69.0%  
Illinois 12,812,508 2,238,750 17.47% 314,472 2.45% 122,090 192,382 158% 30,431 1.36% 1,286 0.41% 587 699 119.1%  
Maryland 6,045,680 751,450 12.43% 143,554 2.37% 27,324 116,230 425% 11,896 1.58% 615 0.43% 290 325 112.1%  
Connecticut 3,605,944 510,188 14.15% 84,913 2.35% 20,306 64,607 318% 9,160 1.80% 235 0.28% 135 100 74.1%  
Hawaii 1,455,271 121,864 8.37% 33,479 2.30% 3,236 30,243 935% 1,094 0.90% 61 0.18% 82 -21 -25.6%  
Pennsylvania 13,002,700 2,101,019 16.16% 298,073 2.29% 166,507 131,566 79% 36,799 1.75% 2,813 0.94% 1,962 851 43.4%  
Vermont 643,077 67,226 10.45% 14,095 2.19% 10,287 3,808 37% 480 0.71% 63 0.45% 32 31 96.9%  
Florida 21,538,187 3,741,058 17.37% 468,869 2.18% 39,748 429,121 1080% 65,504 1.75% 803 0.17% 1,367 -564 -41.3%  
Wisconsin 5,893,718 1,132,356 19.21% 122,975 2.09% 98,041 24,934 25% 11,185 0.99% 1,039 0.84% 592 447 75.5%  
West Virginia 1,793,716 337,326 18.81% 35,977 2.01% 22,694 13,283 59% 5,356 1.59% 366 1.02% 444 -78 -17.6%  
Kansas 2,937,880 535,014 18.21% 56,401 1.92% 34,167 22,234 65% 7,049 1.32% 302 0.54% 236 66 28.0%  
Michigan 10,077,331 1,710,325 16.97% 193,000 1.92% 207,670 -14,670 -7% 29,020 1.70% 2,912 1.51% 2,133 779 36.5%  
Indiana 6,785,528 1,246,854 18.38% 128,519 1.89% 82,276 46,243 56% 19,037 1.53% 1,325 1.03% 814 511 62.8%  
Maine 1,362,359 148,217 10.88% 23,619 1.73% 15,346 8,273 54% 1,556 1.05% 195 0.83% 129 66 51.2%  
Minnesota 5,706,494 1,028,986 18.03% 95,281 1.67% 111,923 -16,642 -15% 10,704 1.04% 916 0.96% 788 128 16.2%  
Virginia 8,631,393 1,158,764 13.42% 141,919 1.64% 43,057 98,862 230% 15,015 1.30% 834 0.59% 628 206 32.8%  
Georgia 10,711,908 1,839,879 17.18% 171,004 1.60% 27,839 143,165 514% 31,443 1.71% 788 0.46% 1,172 -384 -32.8%  
Colorado 5,773,714 929,275 16.09% 90,688 1.57% 78,134 12,554 16% 10,271 1.11% 927 1.02% 937 -10 -1.1%  
New Mexico 2,117,522 357,480 16.88% 33,169 1.57% 37,778 -4,609 -12% 5,866 1.64% 447 1.35% 294 153 52.0%  
Missouri 6,137,428 1,021,433 16.64% 92,929 1.51% 57,888 35,041 61% 16,235 1.59% 667 0.72% 2,859 -2,192 -76.7%  
Nebraska 1,961,504 344,392 17.56% 28,379 1.45% 24,653 3,726 15% 3,338 0.97% 158 0.56% 179 -21 -11.7%  
Arizona 7,151,502 1,390,409 19.44% 98,355 1.38% 22,593 75,762 335% 24,355 1.75% 1,766 1.80% 1,153 613 53.2%  
North Carolina 10,439,388 1,732,568 16.60% 142,123 1.36% 54,891 87,232 159% 19,457 1.12% 601 0.42% 574 27 4.7%  
North Dakota 779,094 175,100 22.47% 10,289 1.32% 12,895 -2,606 -20% 2,057 1.17% 103 1.00% 126 -23 -18.3%  
Arkansas 3,011,524 572,822 19.02% 39,466 1.31% 16,994 22,472 132% 9,196 1.61% 457 1.16% 238 219 92.0%  
Tennessee 6,910,840 1,412,302 20.44% 89,080 1.29% 36,509 52,571 144% 20,842 1.48% 3,452 3.88% 890 2,562 287.9%  
Kentucky 4,505,836 856,145 19.00% 57,794 1.28% 43,831 13,963 32% 12,118 1.42% 892 1.54% 1,152 -260 -22.6%  
Iowa 3,190,369 575,501 18.04% 40,878 1.28% 40,216 662 2% 7,858 1.37% 413 1.01% 376 37 9.8%  
South Dakota 886,667 179,100 20.20% 11,220 1.27% 11,276 -56 0% 2,494 1.39% 123 1.10% 90 33 36.7%  
Alabama 5,024,279 913,603 18.18% 61,043 1.21% 12,397 48,646 392% 16,455 1.80% 270 0.44% 351 -81 -23.1%  
Louisiana 4,657,757 859,856 18.46% 55,906 1.20% 10,940 44,966 411% 15,001 1.74% 160 0.29% 211 -51 -24.2%  
California 39,538,223 5,584,889 14.13% 435,015 1.10% 147,126 287,889 196% 76,534 1.37% 1,721 0.40% 2,289 -568 -24.8%  
Utah 3,271,616 636,992 19.47% 35,040 1.07% 41,384 -6,344 -15% 3,787 0.59% 223 0.64% 278 -55 -19.8%  
South Carolina 5,118,425 975,320 19.06% 53,598 1.05% 19,393 34,205 176% 14,636 1.50% 364 0.68% 431 -67 -15.5%  
Alaska 733,391 160,089 21.83% 7,552 1.03% 9,866 -2,314 -23% 979 0.61% 96 1.27% 142 -46 -32.4%  
Oklahoma 3,956,971 716,851 18.12% 38,518 0.97% 22,211 16,307 73% 12,503 1.74% 420 1.09% 1,120 -700 -62.5%  
Mississippi 2,961,279 561,262 18.95% 28,233 0.95% 8,948 19,285 216% 10,455 1.86% 154 0.55% 148 6 4.1%  
Washington 7,708,281 849,075 11.02% 68,240 0.89% 43,137 25,103 58% 9,853 1.16% 440 0.64% 615 -175 -28.5%  
Texas 29,145,605 4,592,209 15.76% 236,266 0.81% 91,272 144,994 159% 75,757 1.65% 1,546 0.65% 2,255 -709 -31.4%  
Nevada 3,104,614 459,957 14.82% 24,684 0.80% 16,316 8,368 51% 8,419 1.83% 350 1.42% 357 -7 -2.0% Adjusted Deaths Down
Wyoming 576,851 116,643 20.22% 4,444 0.77% 6,494 -2,050 -32% 1,526 1.31% 98 2.21% 185 -87 -47.0%  
Oregon 4,237,256 421,263 9.94% 26,694 0.63% 22,432 4,262 19% 5,655 1.34% 412 1.54% 681 -269 -39.5%  
Idaho 1,839,106 320,802 17.44% 11,488 0.62% 12,570 -1,082 -9% 4,169 1.30% 192 1.67% 324 -132 -40.7%  
Montana 1,084,225 198,520 18.31% 5,930 0.55% 11,784 -5,854 -50% 2,908 1.46% 140 2.36% 334 -194 -58.1%  
SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Update for Utah [12-10-2021]
The data for the week ending 10-Dec-2021 shows a real decrease in new cases. The total for the week was just 8,729, the lowest since August 27, 2021. This clearly means we avoided much spread during the Thanksgiving holiday. Utah's full vaccination rate is still a poor 61%. Cases in Utah Public schools stand at 26,669 which reflects a smaller increase than prior weeks. This is good news.

Deaths continue to roll on at about 80 per week. Utah's total is now 3,640.

The U.S. death toll is approaching 800,000. This compares to 116,516 who died in WW1, 405,399 who died in WW2, 36,516 who died in Korea, and 58,220 who died in Vietnam. Added those wars altogether and you get 616,651. So far more Americans have died during this pandemic than ALL of these wars combined!

Given that the U.S. received the vaccines first and theoretically has the best medical care in the world, the bottom line is the U.S. has done terribly fighting SARS-CoV-2.

SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Update for Utah [12-17-2021]

Cases and deaths both dropped this week, just in time for the Omicron variant to explode upon us shortly. Cases per day dropped from 1,247 to 1,002 per day, that's the lowest since August 6, 2021.

Deaths per day dropped from 11 to 9, however, the Utah death rate reached a new all-time high at 0.60% which means that 6 in every thousand infections leads to death in Utah. Again our death rate is among the lowest of all fifty states.

What to expect from Omicron? Based on what I think is the best information:

  1. It spreads like crazy. Much more rapidly than any other variant.
  2. We will probably see the number of cases per day jump as high as 15,000-25,000 (depending on how many choose to be tested). Testing resources will be stretched thin for sure.
  3. Hospitals are likely to be crunched by patients.
  4. For those "triple vaccinated" (or those double vaccinated in the last 4-6 months) the chance of hospitalization is very low.
  5. For those triple vaccinated, cases are generally asymptomatic (you where don't know you are sick) to something like a bad cold where you'd WANT to stay in bed.
  6. By the end of January 2022, the surge of this variant will probably have passed.
  7. The state will move significantly closer to herd immunity by the end of the surge.
  8. Depending on the number of people who gain some immunity from catching the Omicron variant, we could see a reasonably long period without much worry regarding the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

It is fortunate that most public schools will not be in session for two weeks. Will public schools reopen for in-classroom school on January 2nd? My answer: I don't know.

SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Update for Utah [12-24-2021]
This week's data from the Utah Department of Health (UDOH) only covers six days, due to the holiday. The numbers are about the same as the prior week if you add in some compensation for the day that was missing.

UDOH says that based on some real data that 30% of cases are from the Omicron strain. If that is true, the case count next weekend could be more than double yesterday's count.

Omicron spreads easily and many triple vaccinated people will even get it and most of them will have mild cases. The rate of hospitalization seems to be less than delta. If so the death rate will fall going forward as fewer people will die from Omicron, while many more people will be infected. That said it should spread enough to get us close to herd immunity, which would make the months past January easier to deal with..