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The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
Report for December 2021
See the index to all available reports.
Publication Note:
A summary of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic during December 2021. The data is all from January 3, 2022 as as sourced from Johns Hopkins University. Starting with this report the state populations were updated to the values from the official 2020 U.S. census.

Also see Weekly data for Utah.

The weekly seven day average of new cases of Covid-19 in Utah.
The weekly seven day average of Covid-19 deaths in Utah.
Most Recent Month
***SARS-Cov-2 - Pandemic or Endemic***
*** Focus on Utah ***

Omicron has already hit Europe hard, but so far Asia seems to not have the variant in large numbers.

In Europe during the last 28 days the number of new infections has been huge. Here is a sample

Country Cases Percentage
U.K. 2,786,335 4.1%
France 2,334,363 3.6%
Spain 1,091,870 2.3%
Greece 244,632 2.3%

Vietnam is an exception in Asia as the case counts there are very high with the 28-day count jumping by 453,948 cases. Taiwan has done a terrific job avoiding the spread. Their latest 28-day count was just 418. Japan had only 6000 new cases in the last 28 days.

*** Focus on the United States ****

Meanwhile in the United States all efforts to contain the spread of the virus seem futile. The U.S. had 6,002,352 cases in the last 4 weeks. That's almost 2% of the population. This brings the infection rate in the U.S. to 16.8%. The U.K. is worse at 19.7%, but they are further through their Omicron surge than we are. The infection rate in Canada is only 6%. The response of the U.S. government to the SARS-CoV-2 is simply abysmal, it makes us look like a 3rd world country. Ok, yes, you could argue that we have the most accurate numbers, nevertheless the U.S. response is poor.

The five states with the highest infection rates (full pandemic)

State Percentage
North Dakota 22.4%
Alaska 21.8%
Rhode Island 21.1%
Tennessee 20.4%
Wyoming 20.2%

The five states with the lowest infection rates (full pandemic)

State Percentage
Hawaii 8.3%
Oregon 29.9%
Vermont 10.5%
Maine 10.8%
Washington 11.0%

Over the last 28 days the states with the most growth of infections are (compares the prior 28 days to the most recent 28 days)

State Percentage
Florida 1080%
Hawaii 935%
Georgia 514%%
New Jersey 459%
Maryland 425%

The best results for the most recent 28 days:

State Percentage
Montana -50%
Wyoming -23%
Alaska -23%
North Dakota -20%
Utah -15%

These are states where the Omicron variant has not yet made a difference, but certainly will in the coming weeks.

As the Omicron variant takes hold and makes many people sick, the overall death rate should drop as there will be larger numbers infected resulting few deaths per new case. I see this happening now in states where Omicron is raging.

As of this report the states with the lowest death rate (full pandemic) are

State Percentage
Utah 0.59%
Alaska 0.61%
Vermont 0.71%
Hawaii 0.90%
Nebraska 0.97%

States with the worst death rates

State Percentage
Mississippi 1.86%
Nevada 1.83%
Alabama 1.80%
Connecticut 1.80%
Massachusetts 1.78%
*** Focus on Utah ***
When I heard the report that the Missionary Training Center in Provo had 91 cases of Covid-19, my first thought was Omicron had arrived! The next few weeks will be brutal in terms of case counts, while a large number of those cases will be so mild that they won't even be reported. When the surge in Utah ends (I expecting near the end of January), we and many other places should be near herd immunity, ushering in six months with little SARS-CoV2 activity. That said, the immunity to this virus is unlikely to be permanent and we start the next wave in the fall of 2022. That wave however probably won't be too big assuming people stay current with their vaccinations.
The Data for the week ending December 4, 2021
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
ASIA                              
China 1,433,783,686 111,685 0.01% 1493 0.00% 1442 51 3.5% 4,849 4.34% 0 0.00% 0 0 0.0%
India 1,366,417,754 34,633,254 2.53% 268831 0.02% 402034 -133,203 -33.1% 470,900 1.36% 9,739 3.62% 10,202 -463 -4.5%
Japan 126,860,301 1,727,125 1.36% 3600 0.00% 9523 -5,923 -62.2% 18,360 1.06% 54 1.50% 379 -325 -85.8%
Philippines 108,116,615 2,834,775 2.62% 33673 0.03% 146171 -112,498 -77.0% 49,386 1.74% 4,991 14.82% 4,734 257 5.4%
Viet Nam 96,462,106 1,309,092 1.36% 333740 0.35% 124904 208,836 167.2% 26,260 2.01% 3,591 1.08% 2,028 1,563 77.1%
Thailand 69,625,582 2,141,241 3.08% 176498 0.25% 259972 -83,474 -32.1% 20,944 0.98% 1,306 0.74% 2,004 -698 -34.8%
S. Korea 51,225,308 473,034 0.92% 93099 0.18% 48416 44,683 92.3% 3,852 0.81% 885 0.95% 392 493 125.8%
Taiwan 23,773,876 16,652 0.07% 210 0.00% 151 59 39.1% 848 5.09% 1 0.48% 1 0 0.0%
Hong Kong NA                            
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
EUROPE                              
Russia 145,961,031 9,630,296 6.60% 984,750 0.67% 982,499 2,251 0.2% 275,824 2.86% 33,553 3.41% 29,468 4,085 13.9%
Germany 83,517,045 6,184,176 7.40% 1,398,317 1.67% 103,049 1,295,268 1256.9% 1,398,317 22.61% 6,514 0.47% 2,323 4,191 180.4%
U.K. 67,530,172 10,523,251 15.58% 1,162,883 1.72% 3,827 1,159,056 30286.3% 146,001 1.39% 3,827 0.33% 4,073 -246 -6.0%
France 65,129,728 7,978,985 12.25% 668,018 1.03% 158,958 509,060 320.2% 120,490 1.51% 1,634 0.24% 940 694 73.8%
Italy 60,550,075 5,094,072 8.41% 291,847 0.48% 104,187 187,660 180.1% 134,152 2.63% 1,787 0.61% 1,091 696 63.8%
Spain 46,692,858 5,202,958 11.14% 177,319 0.38% 52,020 125,299 240.9% 177,319 3.41% 655 0.37% 726 -71 -9.8%
Greece 10,473,455 962,695 9.19% 105,142 1.00% 182,074 -76,932 -42.3% 18,516 1.92% 2,273 2.16% 1,138 1,135 99.7%
Sweden 10,036,379 1,212,145 12.08% 35,051 0.35% 23,130 11,921 51.5% 15,170 1.25% 113 0.32% 152 -39 -25.7%
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
AMERICAS                              
U.S.A 329,064,917 49,062,458 14.91% 788,205 0.24% 1,158,137 -369,932 -31.9% 788,205 1.61% 32,769 4.16% 40,289 -7,520 -18.7%
Canada 37,411,047 1,813,304 4.85% 76,052 0.20% 71,940 4,112 5.7% 29,819 1.64% 627 0.82% 946 -319 -33.7%
Brazil 212,559,417 22,138,247 10.42% 263,923 0.12% 307,143 -43,220 -14.1% 615,570 2.78% 6,182 2.34% 8,559 -2,377 -27.8%
                               
Middle East                              
Iran 82,913,906 6,134,465 7.40% 151,096 0.18% 288,626 -137,530 -47.6% 130,200 2.12% 2,951 1.95% 4,803 -1,852 -38.6%
Turkey 83,809,754 8,883,730 10.60% 667,385 0.80% 790,193 -122,808 -15.5% 77,645 0.87% 5,718 0.86% 5,943 -225 -3.8%
                               
Other                              
Australia 25,203,198 217,842 0.86% 37,522 0.15% 49,769 -12,247 -24.6% 2,050 0.94% 235 0.63% 295 60 20.3%
                               
UNITED STATES                              
State Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods
Michigan 9,986,857 1,517,325 15.19% 207,670 2.08% 120,965 86,705 72% 26,108 1.72% 2,133 1.03% 1,273 860 67.6%
New York 19,453,561 2,769,624 14.24% 184,259 0.95% 110,706 73,553 66% 57,725 2.08% 1,033 0.56% 987 46 4.7%
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 1,773,060 13.85% 166,507 1.30% 114,915 51,592 45% 33,859 1.91% 1,962 1.18% 1,990 -28 -1.4%
Ohio 11,689,100 1,725,669 14.76% 157,835 1.35% 105,902 51,933 49% 26,851 1.56% 661 0.42% 913 -252 -27.6%
California 39,512,223 5,107,717 12.93% 147,126 0.37% 164,797 -17,671 -11% 74,800 1.46% 2,289 1.56% 2,913 -624 -21.4%
Illinois 12,671,821 1,835,076 14.48% 122,090 0.96% 62,878 59,212 94% 28,968 1.58% 587 0.48% 724 -137 -18.9%
Minnesota 5,639,632 926,931 16.44% 111,923 1.98% 79,362 32,561 41% 9,740 1.05% 788 0.70% 544 244 44.9%
Wisconsin 5,822,434 997,688 17.14% 98,041 1.68% 64,590 33,451 52% 10,134 1.02% 592 0.60% 536 56 10.4%
Texas 28,995,881 4,351,338 15.01% 91,272 0.31% 130,847 -39,575 -30% 74,171 1.70% 2,255 2.47% 4,928 -2,673 -54.2%
Indiana 6,733,174 1,118,335 16.61% 82,276 1.22% 47,874 34,402 72% 82,276 7.36% 814 0.99% 916 -102 -11.1%
Colorado 5,758,736 838,587 14.56% 78,134 1.36% 71,988 6,146 9% 9,344 1.11% 937 1.20% 674 263 39.0%
Massachusetts 6,949,503 935,844 13.47% 74,364 1.07% 37,995 36,369 96% 19,489 2.08% 402 0.54% 341 61 17.9%
New Jersey 8,882,190 1,269,232 14.29% 62,689 0.71% 35,896 26,793 75% 28,452 2.24% 372 0.59% 1,273 -901 -70.8%
Missouri 6,137,428 926,450 15.10% 57,888 0.94% 28,726 29,162 102% 15,564 1.68% 2,859 4.94% 523 2,336 446.7%
North Carolina 10,488,084 1,544,544 14.73% 54,891 0.52% 64,591 -9,700 -15% 18,825 1.22% 574 1.05% 1,147 -573 -50.0%
Kentucky 4,467,794 794,816 17.79% 43,831 0.98% 40,621 3,210 8% 11,091 1.40% 1,152 2.63% 886 266 30.0%
Washington 7,614,893 780,835 10.25% 43,137 0.57% 59,703 -16,566 -28% 9,413 1.21% 615 1.43% 776 -161 -20.7%
Virginia 8,535,519 976,599 11.44% 43,057 0.50% 45,363 -2,306 -5% 14,753 1.51% 628 1.46% 1,050 -422 -40.2%
Utah 3,205,958 601,952 18.78% 41,384 1.29% 40,414 970 2% 3,564 0.59% 278 0.67% 292 -14 -4.8%
Iowa 3,155,070 534,623 16.94% 40,216 1.27% 33,055 7,161 22% 7,445 1.39% 376 0.93% 415 -39 -9.4%
Florida 21,477,737 3,741,058 17.42% 39,748 0.19% 56,020 -16,272 -29% 61,701 1.65% 1,367 3.44% 3,667 -2,300 -62.7%
New Mexico 2,096,829 320,520 15.29% 37,778 1.80% 23,799 13,979 59% 5,407 1.69% 294 0.78% 244 50 20.5%
Tennessee 6,833,174 1,323,222 19.36% 36,509 0.53% 37,380 -871 -2% 17,390 1.31% 890 2.44% 951 -61 -6.4%
Kansas 2,913,314 475,304 16.31% 34,167 1.17% 22,734 11,433 50% 6,734 1.42% 236 0.69% 368 -132 -35.9%
Georgia 10,617,423 1,668,875 15.72% 27,839 0.26% 38,369 -10,530 -27% 30,655 1.84% 1,172 4.21% 2,341 -1,169 -49.9%
Maryland 6,045,680 592,679 9.80% 27,324 0.45% 22,469 4,855 22% 11,255 1.90% 290 1.06% 382 -92 -24.1%
New Hampshire 1,359,711 165,574 12.18% 26,250 1.93% 15,116 11,134 74% 1,739 1.05% 142 0.54% 100 42 42.0%
Nebraska 1,934,408 313,935 16.23% 24,653 1.27% 17,732 6,921 39% 3,180 1.01% 179 0.73% 146 33 22.6%
West Virginia 1,792,147 300,660 16.78% 22,694 1.27% 25,066 -2,372 -9% 4,962 1.65% 444 1.96% 583 -139 -23.8%
Arizona 7,278,717 1,292,008 17.75% 22,593 0.31% 70,058 -47,465 -68% 22,593 1.75% 1,153 5.10% 1,058 95 9.0%
Oregon 4,217,737 394,569 9.35% 22,432 0.53% 31,024 -8,592 -28% 5,243 1.33% 681 3.04% 580 101 17.4%
Oklahoma 3,956,971 670,420 16.94% 22,211 0.56% 25,429 -3,218 -13% 11,999 1.79% 1,120 5.04% 1,666 -546 -32.8%
Connecticut 3,565,287 425,275 11.93% 20,306 0.57% 10,961 9,345 85% 8,925 2.10% 135 0.66% 123 12 9.8%
South Carolina 5,148,714 921,722 17.90% 19,393 0.38% 28,316 -8,923 -32% 14,272 1.55% 431 2.22% 912 -481 -52.7%
Arkansas 3,017,825 532,973 17.66% 16,994 0.56% 13,547 3,447 25% 8,721 1.64% 238 1.40% 652 -414 -63.5%
Nevada 3,080,156 459,957 14.93% 16,316 0.53% 17,234 -918 -5% 9,069 1.97% 357 2.19% 428 -71 -16.6%
Maine 1,344,212 123,858 9.21% 15,346 1.14% 12,824 2,522 20% 1,336 1.08% 129 0.84% 132 -3 -2.3%
Rhode Island 1,059,361 194,858 18.39% 13,779 1.30% 6,509 7,270 112% 2,941 1.51% 60 0.44% 27 33 122.2%
North Dakota 762,062 164,702 21.61% 12,895 1.69% 13,966 -1,071 -8% 1,953 1.19% 126 0.98% 151 -25 -16.6%
Idaho 1,787,147 308,869 17.28% 12,570 0.70% 27,845 -15,275 -55% 3,970 1.29% 324 2.58% 524 -200 -38.2%
Alabama 4,903,185 848,498 17.31% 12,397 0.25% 28,261 -15,864 -56% 16,185 1.91% 351 2.83% 977 -626 -64.1%
Montana 1,068,778 192,236 17.99% 11,784 1.10% 21,772 -9,988 -46% 2,739 1.42% 334 2.83% 336 -2 -0.6%
South Dakota 884,659 168,271 19.02% 11,276 1.27% 9,175 2,101 23% 2,357 1.40% 90 0.80% 96 -6 -6.3%
Louisiana 4,648,794 772,789 16.62% 10,940 0.24% 14,520 -3,580 -25% 14,826 1.92% 211 1.93% 442 -231 -52.3%
Delaware 973,764 155,922 16.01% 10,310 1.06% 8,324 1,986 24% 2,194 1.41% 75 0.73% 27 48 177.8%
Vermont 623,989 52,889 8.48% 10,287 1.65% 6,449 3,838 60% 417 0.79% 32 0.31% 49 -17 -34.7%
Alaska 731,545 151,504 20.71% 9,866 1.35% 20,770 -10,904 -52% 883 0.58% 142 1.44% 149 -7 -4.7%
Mississippi 2,976,149 515,504 17.32% 8,948 0.30% 12,285 -3,337 -27% 10,296 2.00% 148 1.65% 337 -189 -56.1%
Wyoming 578,759 111,812 19.32% 6,494 1.12% 11,015 -4,521 -41% 1,428 1.28% 185 2.85% 202 -17 -8.4%
Hawaii 1,415,872 88,147 6.23% 3,236 0.23% 13,073 -9,837 -75% 1,032 1.17% 82 2.53% 187 -105 -56.1%
                               
                               
                               
                               
                               
SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Update for Utah [12-10-2021]
The data for the week ending 10-Dec-2021 shows a real decrease in new cases. The total for the week was just 8,729, the lowest since August 27, 2021. This clearly means we avoided much spread during the Thanksgiving holiday. Utah's full vaccination rate is still a poor 61%. Cases in Utah Public schools stand at 26,669 which reflects a smaller increase than prior weeks. This is good news.

Deaths continue to roll on at about 80 per week. Utah's total is now 3,640.

The U.S. death toll is approaching 800,000. This compares to 116,516 who died in WW1, 405,399 who died in WW2, 36,516 who died in Korea, and 58,220 who died in Vietnam. Added those wars altogether and you get 616,651. So far more Americans have died during this pandemic than ALL of these wars combined!

Given that the U.S. received the vaccines first and theoretically has the best medical care in the world, the bottom line is the U.S. has done terribly fighting SARS-CoV-2.

SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Update for Utah [12-17-2021]

Cases and deaths both dropped this week, just in time for the Omicron variant to explode upon us shortly. Cases per day dropped from 1,247 to 1,002 per day, that's the lowest since August 6, 2021.

Deaths per day dropped from 11 to 9, however, the Utah death rate reached a new all-time high at 0.60% which means that 6 in every thousand infections leads to death in Utah. Again our death rate is among the lowest of all fifty states.

What to expect from Omicron? Based on what I think is the best information:

  1. It spreads like crazy. Much more rapidly than any other variant.
  2. We will probably see the number of cases per day jump as high as 15,000-25,000 (depending on how many choose to be tested). Testing resources will be stretched thin for sure.
  3. Hospitals are likely to be crunched by patients.
  4. For those "triple vaccinated" (or those double vaccinated in the last 4-6 months) the chance of hospitalization is very low.
  5. For those triple vaccinated, cases are generally asymptomatic (you where don't know you are sick) to something like a bad cold where you'd WANT to stay in bed.
  6. By the end of January 2022, the surge of this variant will probably have passed.
  7. The state will move significantly closer to herd immunity by the end of the surge.
  8. Depending on the number of people who gain some immunity from catching the Omicron variant, we could see a reasonably long period without much worry regarding the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

It is fortunate that most public schools will not be in session for two weeks. Will public schools reopen for in-classroom school on January 2nd? My answer: I don't know.

SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Update for Utah [12-24-2021]
This week's data from the Utah Department of Health (UDOH) only covers six days, due to the holiday. The numbers are about the same as the prior week if you add in some compensation for the day that was missing.

UDOH says that based on some real data that 30% of cases are from the Omicron strain. If that is true, the case count next weekend could be more than double yesterday's count.

Omicron spreads easily and many triple vaccinated people will even get it and most of them will have mild cases. The rate of hospitalization seems to be less than delta. If so the death rate will fall going forward as fewer people will die from Omicron, while many more people will be infected. That said it should spread enough to get us close to herd immunity, which would make the months past January easier to deal with..

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